OIL PRICES: ABOVE $48 ANEW
Brent crude futures LCOc1, the international benchmark for oil prices, were down 7 cents, or 0.1 percent, at $48.35 per barrel at 0443 GMT (12:43 a.m. ET), but up 3.5 percent for the week.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $45.97 per barrel, down 11 cents, or 0.2 percent, but up around 4 percent over the week.
Crude prices are around levels in late November last year, when a group of oil producers including Russia and Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) pledged to withhold around 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) of output between January this year and March 2018 to tighten the market.
"OPEC compliance with production cuts slipped to 98 percent in June, but more importantly output from exempt (from cutting)members Libya and Nigeria is currently about 700,000 bpd higher than at the time of the November OPEC agreement, offsetting about 60 percent of the OPEC cuts. The growth in U.S. production over the same time negates the remainder," U.S. investment bank Jefferies said.
U.S. oil production has risen by more than 10 percent over the past year to 9.4 million bpd.
Oil analysts at research and brokerage firm Sanford C. Bernstein said that global oil stocks remain high.
"For the first half of 2017, OECD inventories are likely to finish higher, rather than lower ... The most plausible explanation is that OPEC compliance has been not as high as has been suggested," Bernstein said.
"OPEC will have to cut deeper and for longer if it wants to eliminate the inventory overhang and prices to rise," Bernstein said.
It added that the upside for oil prices looked limited even if OPEC took more action due to high U.S. shale production.
Goldman Sachs said that the crude oil price outlook remained weak, largely due to rising cost efficiency from U.S. shale drillers.
"We see potential for shale to break even at $45 ... (and) we see $45-$55 per barrel annual WTI range," the U.S. investment bank said.
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Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $51.02 per barrel at 0218 GMT, up 22 cents or 0.4 percent from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $47.70 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.3 percent.
New data suggests that in 2Q17 global stocks fell by 0.5 mb/d and preliminary data for July, particularly in the United States where stocks fell by 790 kb/d, is supportive. Even so, we must not forget that they are falling from a very great height in volume terms. At the end of 2Q17, OECD commercial stocks, which are the component of the global total for which we have the most visibility, stood at 3 021 million barrels, still more than 219 mb above the five-year average although they have now fallen below 2016 levels. As an exercise, if OECD stocks fell by 0.5 mb/d until the end of 1Q18 when the current output agreements expire they would still be about 60 mb above the five-year average.
Средняя цена нефти марки Urals по итогам января - июля 2017 года составила $ 49,94 за баррель.
OPEC said world oil demand in 2018 will grow 1.28 million b/d from 2017 levels, meaning that total oil consumption is expected to hit a new record high of 97.8 million b/d in 2018.