U.S. GDP UP 2.6%
BEA - Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the second quarter of 2017, according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.2 percent.
The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency. The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 30, 2017.
The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, and federal government spending that were partly offset by negative contributions from private residential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased .
The acceleration in real GDP growth in the second quarter reflected a smaller decrease in private inventory investment, an acceleration in PCE, and an upturn in federal government spending. These movements were partly offset by a downturn in residential fixed investment and decelerations in exports and in nonresidential fixed investment.
Current-dollar GDP increased 3.6 percent, or $169.0 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $19,226.7 billion. In the first quarter, current-dollar GDP increased 3.3 percent, or $152.2 billion.
The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent in the first quarter. The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent.
Current-dollar personal income increased $118.9 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $217.6 billion in the first quarter . The deceleration in personal income primarily reflected decelerations in wages and salaries, in government social benefits, in nonfarm proprietors' income, and in rental income, and downturns in personal interest income and in farm proprietors' income. These movements were offset by an upturn in personal dividend income.
Disposable personal income increased $122.1 billion, or 3.5 percent, in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $176.3 billion, or 5.1 percent, in the first quarter . Real disposable personal income increased 3.2 percent, compared with an increase of 2.8 percent.
Personal saving was $546.8 billion in the second quarter, compared with $553.0 billion in the first quarter . The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 3.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with 3.9 percent in the first.
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Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $51.02 per barrel at 0218 GMT, up 22 cents or 0.4 percent from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $47.70 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.3 percent.
New data suggests that in 2Q17 global stocks fell by 0.5 mb/d and preliminary data for July, particularly in the United States where stocks fell by 790 kb/d, is supportive. Even so, we must not forget that they are falling from a very great height in volume terms. At the end of 2Q17, OECD commercial stocks, which are the component of the global total for which we have the most visibility, stood at 3 021 million barrels, still more than 219 mb above the five-year average although they have now fallen below 2016 levels. As an exercise, if OECD stocks fell by 0.5 mb/d until the end of 1Q18 when the current output agreements expire they would still be about 60 mb above the five-year average.
Средняя цена нефти марки Urals по итогам января - июля 2017 года составила $ 49,94 за баррель.
OPEC said world oil demand in 2018 will grow 1.28 million b/d from 2017 levels, meaning that total oil consumption is expected to hit a new record high of 97.8 million b/d in 2018.