U.S. OIL&GAS PRODUCTION WILL UP
EIA, OGJ - Crude oil production from the seven major US onshore regions is projected to rise 113,000 b/d month-over-month in August to 5.585 million b/d, the US Energy Information Administration says in its Drilling Productivity Report.
About 94% of the monthly increase is expected to come from the Permian, Eagle Ford, and Niobrara. The DPR also forecasts oil and gas output from the Bakken, Haynesville, Marcellus, and Utica, taking into consideration the regions' total number of active drilling rigs, drilling productivity, and estimated changes in production from existing oil and gas wells.
The Permian is forecast to gain 64,000 b/d month-over-month in August to 2.535 million b/d. In its July Short-Term Energy Outlook published last week, EIA projects the basin in 2018 to account for 30% of total US oil production, producing 2.9 million b/d by the end of that year.
As of the week ended July 14, Baker Hughes' count of active Permian rigs was 373, up 239 units since the basin's modern low on May 13, 2016. EIA separately estimates the Permian's tally of drilled but uncompleted (DUC) wells in June climbed by 130 month-over-month to 2,244.
The Eagle Ford is expected to increase 27,000 b/d month-over-month in August to 1.387 million b/d. EIA's July STEO expects the South Texas shale region in both 2017 and 2018 to average 1.3 million b/d as projected lower crude oil prices limit output growth.
The Eagle Ford as of July 14 had 80 active rigs, an increase of 49 units since Oct. 14, 2016, according to Baker Hughes data. EIA's DPR indicates the region's DUC well count rose by 42 month-over-month in June to 1,406.
The Niobrara is estimated to gain 15,000 b/d month-over-month in August to 480,000 b/d. Its DUC count in June edged up by 2 month-over-month to 663.
Modest growth is forecast in August for the Bakken, up 4,000 b/d month-over-month to 1.043 million b/d. EIA expects Bakken output in 2017-18 to average 1.1 million b/d, according to the STEO. The region's DUC tally in June rose by 8 month-over-month to 819.
EIA projects August gas production from the seven regions to climb 837 MMcfd month-over-month to 52.858 bcfd. The Marcellus is expected to lead the way with a 201-MMcfd increase to 19.752 bcfd, followed by the Permian, up 160 MMcfd to 8.653 bcfd; Haynesville, up 142 MMcfd to 6.726 bcfd; Eagle Ford, up 112 MMcfd to 6.404 bcfd; Utica, up 104 MMcfd to 4.554 bcfd; and Bakken, up 20 MMcfd to 1.934 bcfd.
The Marcellus in June dropped 20 DUC wells month-over-month to 643, while the Utica lost 11 to 62.
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Brent crude futures LCOc1 were at $51.02 per barrel at 0218 GMT, up 22 cents or 0.4 percent from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $47.70 a barrel, up 15 cents, or 0.3 percent.
New data suggests that in 2Q17 global stocks fell by 0.5 mb/d and preliminary data for July, particularly in the United States where stocks fell by 790 kb/d, is supportive. Even so, we must not forget that they are falling from a very great height in volume terms. At the end of 2Q17, OECD commercial stocks, which are the component of the global total for which we have the most visibility, stood at 3 021 million barrels, still more than 219 mb above the five-year average although they have now fallen below 2016 levels. As an exercise, if OECD stocks fell by 0.5 mb/d until the end of 1Q18 when the current output agreements expire they would still be about 60 mb above the five-year average.
Средняя цена нефти марки Urals по итогам января - июля 2017 года составила $ 49,94 за баррель.
OPEC said world oil demand in 2018 will grow 1.28 million b/d from 2017 levels, meaning that total oil consumption is expected to hit a new record high of 97.8 million b/d in 2018.