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2017-08-31 12:25:00

SAUDIS - RUSSIA OIL DEAL

SAUDIS - RUSSIA OIL DEAL

WSJ - Top oil producers Saudi Arabia and Russia are pushing to extend their deal to limit crude oil production for another three months, which would leave the output deal between OPEC and non-OPEC producers in place through the end of June, people familiar with the matter said.

Saudi Arabia's energy minister Khalid al-Falih discussed the proposal with his Russian counterpart, Alexander Novak, in July at a meeting in St. Petersburg about compliance with the production cap, according to two of the people familiar with the matter.

The two ministers, who are the most powerful figures among the producing countries participating in the cut, have been lobbying for support from other countries since the St. Petersburg meeting, the people said.

Neither minister responded immediately to a request for comment.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries joined forces with 11 non-OPEC nations late last year to reach a production deal aimed at ending a global glut that has weighed on oil prices and shaken energy-rich economies.

But so far, the pact has failed to lift oil prices to levels desired by OPEC, in part because American shale producers ramped up output. The deal also has been undermined by relatively low compliance by some producers.

An OPEC official confirmed that a three-month extension was discussed at the St. Petersburg meeting and is being considered by OPEC leaders.

The original output deal was renewed at the end of May and is in place through the end of March. Efforts to extend the deal now are aimed at ensuring that there isn't another precipitous price drop.

"There are concerns that if OPEC and non-OPEC producers exit the market in March, traders will react quite negatively to it and behave as if the market is in a free fall," one senior Saudi oil official said.

"This also ensures that producers won't pump full tilt and push prices down," he said.

Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio del Pino is scheduled to visit Russia and Saudi Arabia ahead of a planned Sept. 22 meeting in Vienna to discuss compliance and a possible extension of the deal, according to the official.

The proposal to extend the deal also was discussed with other Gulf producers who are part of OPEC, according to that official and another person familiar with the matter.

Mr. Falih and Mr. Novak previously had said they would "do whatever it takes" to reduce the inventory overhang, using a phrase coined by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi five years ago in his successful bid to defend the euro.

"Mr. Falih in particular remains very committed to this promise and for now he thinks what it takes now is more commitment from the producers and an extension to the deal," said a senior oil senior from one of the non-OPEC producers participating in the deal.

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Earlier:

SAUDIS: 

     

 RUSSIA:

 

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Tags: SAUDI, RUSSIA, OIL, OPEC

Chronicle:

SAUDIS - RUSSIA OIL DEAL
2018, June, 18, 14:00:00

U.S. IS BETTER

IMF - Within the next few years, the U.S. economy is expected to enter its longest expansion in recorded history. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the approved increase in spending are providing a significant boost to the economy. We forecast growth of close to 3 percent this year but falling from that level over the medium-term. In my discussions with Secretary Mnuchin he was clear that he regards our medium-term outlook as too pessimistic. Frankly, I hope he is right. That would be good for both the U.S. and the world economy.

SAUDIS - RUSSIA OIL DEAL
2018, June, 18, 13:55:00

U.S. ECONOMY UP

IMF - The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy is one of strong growth and job creation. Unemployment is already near levels not seen since the late 1960s and growth is set to accelerate, aided by a near-term fiscal stimulus, a welcome recovery of private investment, and supportive financial conditions. These positive outturns have supported, and been reinforced by, a favorable external environment with a broad-based pick up in global activity. Next year, the U.S. economy is expected to mark the longest expansion in its recorded history. The balance of evidence suggests that the U.S. economy is beyond full employment.

SAUDIS - RUSSIA OIL DEAL
2018, June, 18, 13:50:00

U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DOWN 0.1%

U.S. FRB - Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in May after rising 0.9 percent in April. Manufacturing production fell 0.7 percent in May, largely because truck assemblies were disrupted by a major fire at a parts supplier. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, factory output moved down 0.2 percent. The index for mining rose 1.8 percent, its fourth consecutive month of growth; the output of utilities moved up 1.1 percent. At 107.3 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 3.5 percent higher in May than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point in May to 77.9 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.

SAUDIS - RUSSIA OIL DEAL
2018, June, 18, 13:45:00

SOUTH AFRICA: NO BENEFITS

IMF - South Africa’s potential is significant, yet growth over the past five years has not benefitted from the global recovery. The economy is globally positioned, sophisticated, and diversified, and several sectors—agribusiness, mining, manufacturing, and services—have capacity for expansion. Combined with strong institutions and a young workforce, opportunities are vast. However, several constraints have held growth back. Policy uncertainty and a regulatory environment not conducive to private investment have resulted in GDP growth rates that have not kept up with those of population growth, reducing income per capita, and hurting disproportionately the poor.

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