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2017-09-15 08:50:00

NIGERIA NEEDS TIME

NIGERIA NEEDS TIME

FT Nigeria will resist any attempts to curb its oil production when it meets with Opec and Russia later this month, posing a threat to the cartel's efforts to cut global supplies and boost crude prices towards $60 a barrel.

Emmanuel Kachikwu, Nigeria's minister of state for petroleum resources, told the Financial Times that the west African nation's energy sector was still suffering from years of violent disruptions and needed more "recovery time" before joining a supply deal agreed last year between some of the world's biggest oil producers.

Mr Kachikwu, who represents Nigeria at Opec meetings, said in an interview he would not consider reducing production until at least March next year, as it had not yet been proven that the country's rebound in production would last.

"We have a nine-month exemption period within which to come back to the table," Mr Kachikwu said, referring to the decision to extend the near 2m barrel a day supply cut deal from June. "You need that timeframe to see if any recovery is sustainable."

His stance puts Nigeria on a potential collision course with other Opec members as the country's output has rebounded strongly in the past 12 months, blunting the effectiveness of a deal between 24 countries to shave almost 2 per cent of global oil output.

Africa's largest oil producer has seen its output jump from a low of 1.4m b/d a year ago to almost 1.9m b/d in August, according to consultants and analysts Opec relies on to track members' oil production. Nigeria's own output numbers are lower.

Both Nigeria and its conflict-ridden Opec peer Libya were made exempt from the initial agreement reached late in 2016 as both countries' oil sectors recovered after years of unrest that crippled the lifeblood of their economies.

But higher than anticipated production from both countries has dulled the impact of the supply deal, as has resilient US shale production and poor adherence with the pact from participating members of Opec such as Iraq and the UAE.

A ministerial committee monitoring compliance with the deal, made up of officials from Opec and those outside the cartel such as Russia, has said Nigeria would cap or curb its output once production stabilised at 1.8m b/d.

But a timeline or framework to measure steady production and the country's entry into any deal has never been specified.

Pressure on Nigeria to reduce its crude production is expected to increase when it attends an informal meeting in Vienna later this month with delegations from Saudi Arabia and Russia, which have been leading the cuts effort.

Mr Kachikwu said while militant attacks in the resource-rich Niger Delta region had subsided, and output had rebounded from last year's low, more time was necessary.

"They should let us exhaust those nine months and see whether we have been able to establish stability," he said.

Alexander Novak, Russia's energy minister, told the FT in July that volatile output from Nigeria and Libya was causing "uncertainty" among market participants. Industry analysts said both countries' production was keeping a ceiling on prices.

Global producers took co-ordinated action as the crude price downturn that had put acute strain on their economies entered its third year. Saudi Arabia has discussed a further extension in recent days with several oil producers and two Opec delegates say Nigeria's involvement is in focus.

For Mr Kachikwu, limits to price rises had mostly to do with robust US shale oil output. "[Opec's] big expectation that we would be able to hit $60 a barrel is not looking likely," said Mr Kachikwu.

"$60 is looking very, very tough right now if you look at the sort of numbers coming out from US shale," he added.

Mr Kachikwu said Brent crude would likely stay close to $55 a barrel for the next year, with any further rises depending on a "well managed" Opec output policy that ensured producers did not "pump unnecessarily".

He added that should US shale output continue to expand, prolonged output cuts would be "difficult" to keep up. "The earlier all of us get used to the fact [shale] is going to be there for a long time, the better," said Mr Kachikwu.

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Earlier:

 

NIGERIA'S OIL PRODUCTION: 2.2 MBD

NIGERIAS OIL PRODUCTION: 2.2 MBD NIGERIAS OIL PRODUCTION: 2.2 MBD The figure of around 2.2 million to 2.3 million b/d includes about 300,000 to 400,000 b/d of condensates, which implies that its current crude oil production is at the coveted 1.8 mill ...
2017-09-04
 

OIL OUTPUT CONSENSUS

... epen cuts to make up for output gains from exempt Nigeria and Libya, as well as sliding compliance from other members. With prices still languishing below the $55-$60/b that some ministers have said they are targeting, some market watchers say OPEC a ...
2017-07-24
 

IMF HAS NIGERIA

IMF HAS NIGERIA IMF HAS NIGERIA With oil receipts dominating fiscal revenue and exports, the Nigerian economy has been hit hard by low oil prices and falling oil production. The country entered into a recession in 2016, with growth contracting by 1.5 ...
2017-03-31
 

NIGERIAN OIL CRISIS

NIGERIAN OIL CRISIS NIGERIAN OIL CRISIS “Security and access to funding are the biggest challenges right now to private sector players,” says Kola Karim, managing director of domestic producer Shoreline Energy. “The situation is really tough.” “Secur ...
2016-11-28
 

NIGERIA INTO RECESSION

NIGERIA INTO RECESSION NIGERIA INTO RECESSION Nigeria, which was Africas largest oil producer until a few months ago, slipped into recession after its economy shrank by 2.06% in Q2, as the impact of militant attacks on oil facilities weighed on the c ...
2016-11-22
 

NIGERIAN OIL FIRE

NIGERIAN OIL FIRE NIGERIAN OIL FIRE Shell says a fire has forced it to close a key oil pipeline feeding Nigerias strategic Bonny Export Terminal, which militants attacked last week. Shell says a fire has forced it to close a key oil pipeline feeding ...
2016-09-28
 

NIGERIA WANT $50 BLN

NIGERIA WANT $50 BLN NIGERIA WANT $50 BLN “We’re looking to raise about $40 to $50 billion,” Kachikwu said in the Bloomberg interview. “Going to places like China, which have a huge capacity to put money in the oil sector, is very helpful.” “We’re lo ...
2016-06-27
Tags: NIGERIA, OPEC, RUSSIA, OIL

Chronicle:

NIGERIA NEEDS TIME
November, 24, 09:15:00

SAUDI'S OIL FOR CHINA

BLOOMBERG - As Saudi Arabia led OPEC’s output cuts this year to shrink a global glut, it’s lost out on market share in the world’s biggest energy consumer. Russia in September retained the top Chinese supplier spot for the seventh straight month, while the kingdom was third.

NIGERIA NEEDS TIME
November, 24, 09:10:00

URALS QUALITY WILL DOWN

PLATTS - The quality of Russia's key Urals crude exports towards Europe will continue to fall next year as more of the country's low-sulfur oil flows are diverted eastward to China, Russian national oil pipeline operator Transneft warned.

NIGERIA NEEDS TIME
November, 24, 09:05:00

S.KOREA'S SOLAR UP

FT - OCI — the world’s third-largest polysilicon maker by capacity and South Korea’s biggest — this month reported a 3,373 per cent increase in operating profit to Won78.7bn ($72m) for the July-September quarter, its best performance in five years. Rival Hanwha Chemical saw third-quarter net profit jump 25 per cent to a record Won252bn. 

NIGERIA NEEDS TIME
November, 24, 09:00:00

U.S. RIGS UP 8 TO 923

U.S. Rig Count is up 330 rigs from last year's count of 593, with oil rigs up 273, gas rigs up 58, and miscellaneous rigs down 1 to 0. Canada Rig Count is up 41 rigs from last year's count of 174, with oil rigs up 13, gas rigs up 30, and miscellaneous rigs down 2 to 2.

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