U.S. FEDERAL FUNDS RATE: 1 - 1.25%
FRB - Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in July indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising moderately so far this year. Job gains have remained solid in recent months, and the unemployment rate has stayed low. Household spending has been expanding at a moderate rate, and growth in business fixed investment has picked up in recent quarters. On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and the measure excluding food and energy prices have declined this year and are running below 2 percent. Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance.
Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria have devastated many communities, inflicting severe hardship. Storm-related disruptions and rebuilding will affect economic activity in the near term, but past experience suggests that the storms are unlikely to materially alter the course of the national economy over the medium term. Consequently, the Committee continues to expect that, with gradual adjustments in the stance of monetary policy, economic activity will expand at a moderate pace, and labor market conditions will strengthen somewhat further. Higher prices for gasoline and some other items in the aftermath of the hurricanes will likely boost inflation temporarily; apart from that effect, inflation on a 12-month basis is expected to remain somewhat below 2 percent in the near term but to stabilize around the Committee's 2 percent objective over the medium term. Near-term risks to the economic outlook appear roughly balanced, but the Committee is monitoring inflation developments closely.
In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 1 to 1-1/4 percent. The stance of monetary policy remains accommodative, thereby supporting some further strengthening in labor market conditions and a sustained return to 2 percent inflation.
In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its objectives of maximum employment and 2 percent inflation. This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments. The Committee will carefully monitor actual and expected inflation developments relative to its symmetric inflation goal. The Committee expects that economic conditions will evolve in a manner that will warrant gradual increases in the federal funds rate; the federal funds rate is likely to remain, for some time, below levels that are expected to prevail in the longer run. However, the actual path of the federal funds rate will depend on the economic outlook as informed by incoming data.
September, 20, 08:50:00
Crude oil output from the seven major US onshore producing regions is forecast to increase 79,000 b/d month-over-month in October to 6.083 million b/d. Natural gas production from the seven regions is expected to climb 788 MMcfd month-over-month in October to 59.745 bcfd.
September, 18, 12:20:00
On Thursday, the administration extended certain sanctions on Iran's oil and banking sectors that have been suspended since the nuclear deal took place in January 2016.
September, 18, 12:10:00
Industrial production declined 0.9 percent in August following six consecutive monthly gains. Hurricane Harvey, which hit the Gulf Coast of Texas in late August, is estimated to have reduced the rate of change in total output by roughly 3/4 percentage point. The index for manufacturing decreased 0.3 percent; storm-related effects appear to have reduced the rate of change in factory output in August about 3/4 percentage point. The manufacturing industries with the largest estimated storm-related effects were petroleum refining, organic chemicals, and plastics materials and resins.
September, 8, 09:00:00
“We welcome the President’s commitment to pro-growth tax reform, and look forward to working with the administration and Congress on continuing our nation’s energy leadership. Pro-growth tax reform and economic policies can further strengthen our energy infrastructure and benefit consumers. As an industry that invests billions in the U.S. economy each year, pro-growth policies would allow us to accelerate these economic investments while keeping energy affordable. Private investment in our nation’s energy infrastructure could exceed $1.3 trillion and support 1 million jobs annually through 2035.”
September, 8, 08:40:00
The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, through the Department of Commerce, announced today that the goods and services deficit was $43.7 billion in July, up $0.1 billion from $43.5 billion in June, revised. July exports were $194.4 billion, $0.6 billion less than June exports. July imports were $238.1 billion, $0.4 billion less than June imports.
September, 4, 12:10:00
The Trump administration is ready to block a Russian state-owned oil giant from gaining control of critical energy assets in the U.S. owned by Venezuela, senior American officials say, a move that likely would feed tensions between Washington and Moscow.
August, 24, 13:55:00
U.S. - Industrial production rose 0.2 percent in July following an increase of 0.4 percent in June. The index for mining rose 0.5 percent in July for its fourth consecutive monthly increase. Within mining, gains in oil and gas extraction and in metal ore mining were partially offset by declines in nonmetallic mineral mining and in drilling and support activities. The decrease of 0.5 percent in drilling and support services followed 10 consecutive months of increases for that index.
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AN - China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) is willing to invest $3 billion in its existing oil and gas operation in Nigeria, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said on Sunday following a meeting with the Chinese in Abuja.
REUTERS - Production at Libya’s giant Sharara oil field was expected to fall by at least 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) on Saturday after two staff were abducted in an attack by an unknown group, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said.
IMF - Output grew by 3.8 percent in 2017, underpinned by a resilient non-hydrocarbon sector, with robust implementation of GCC-funded projects as well as strong activity in the financial, hospitality, and education sectors. The banking system remains stable with large capital buffers. Growth is projected to decelerate over the medium term.
IMF - Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. Inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years. Real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending.