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2017-09-15 08:55:00

WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION UP TO 28%

WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION UP TO 28%

EIAThe U.S. Energy Information Administration projects that world energy consumption will grow by 28% between 2015 and 2040. Most of this growth is expected to come from countries that are not in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), and especially in countries where demand is driven by strong economic growth, particularly in Asia. Non-OECD Asia (which includes China and India) accounts for more than 60% of the world's total increase in energy consumption from 2015 through 2040.

Through 2040, EIA projects increased world consumption of marketed energy from all fuel sources, except for coal demand, which is projected to remain essentially flat. Renewables are expected to be the fastest-growing energy source, with consumption increasing by an average 2.3% per year between 2015 and 2040. The world's second fastest-growing source of energy is projected to be nuclear power, with consumption increasing by 1.5% per year over that period.

WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION 1990 - 2040

Even though EIA expects the nonfossil fuels (renewables and nuclear) to grow faster than fossil fuels, fossil fuels still account for more than three-quarters of world energy consumption through 2040. Natural gas, which has a lower carbon intensity than coal and petroleum, is the fastest-growing fossil fuel in the outlook, with global natural gas consumption increasing by 1.4% per year. The relatively high rate of natural gas consumption growth is attributed to abundant natural gas resources and rising production—including supplies of tight gas, shale gas, and coalbed methane.

WORLD NATURAL GAS CONSUMPTION 1990 - 2040

Although liquid fuels—mostly petroleum-based—remain the largest energy source, the liquids share of world marketed energy consumption is projected to fall slightly, from 33% in 2015 to 31% in 2040. As oil prices rise, energy consumers are expected to turn to more energy-efficient technologies and switch away from liquid fuels where possible.

Compared with the strong growth in coal use in the 2000s, global coal use remains flat in EIA’s international projection. Coal is increasingly replaced by natural gas, renewables, and—in China and a few other countries—nuclear power for electricity generation. Demand for coal in industrial processes is also expected to slow.

China is the world's largest consumer of coal, but coal use is projected to decline in China by 0.6% per year from 2015 to 2040. In OECD countries, coal's expected decline is similar, falling by 0.6% per year. The coal share of total world energy consumption declines significantly over the projection period, from 27% in 2015 to 22% in 2040. World coal consumption would be even lower in 2040 were it not for the projected increases in its use by non-OECD Asian nations outside of China.

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Tags: ENERGY, OIL, GAS

Chronicle:

WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION UP TO 28%
2018, June, 18, 14:00:00

U.S. IS BETTER

IMF - Within the next few years, the U.S. economy is expected to enter its longest expansion in recorded history. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the approved increase in spending are providing a significant boost to the economy. We forecast growth of close to 3 percent this year but falling from that level over the medium-term. In my discussions with Secretary Mnuchin he was clear that he regards our medium-term outlook as too pessimistic. Frankly, I hope he is right. That would be good for both the U.S. and the world economy.

WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION UP TO 28%
2018, June, 18, 13:55:00

U.S. ECONOMY UP

IMF - The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy is one of strong growth and job creation. Unemployment is already near levels not seen since the late 1960s and growth is set to accelerate, aided by a near-term fiscal stimulus, a welcome recovery of private investment, and supportive financial conditions. These positive outturns have supported, and been reinforced by, a favorable external environment with a broad-based pick up in global activity. Next year, the U.S. economy is expected to mark the longest expansion in its recorded history. The balance of evidence suggests that the U.S. economy is beyond full employment.

WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION UP TO 28%
2018, June, 18, 13:50:00

U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION DOWN 0.1%

U.S. FRB - Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in May after rising 0.9 percent in April. Manufacturing production fell 0.7 percent in May, largely because truck assemblies were disrupted by a major fire at a parts supplier. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, factory output moved down 0.2 percent. The index for mining rose 1.8 percent, its fourth consecutive month of growth; the output of utilities moved up 1.1 percent. At 107.3 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 3.5 percent higher in May than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point in May to 77.9 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.

WORLD ENERGY CONSUMPTION UP TO 28%
2018, June, 18, 13:45:00

SOUTH AFRICA: NO BENEFITS

IMF - South Africa’s potential is significant, yet growth over the past five years has not benefitted from the global recovery. The economy is globally positioned, sophisticated, and diversified, and several sectors—agribusiness, mining, manufacturing, and services—have capacity for expansion. Combined with strong institutions and a young workforce, opportunities are vast. However, several constraints have held growth back. Policy uncertainty and a regulatory environment not conducive to private investment have resulted in GDP growth rates that have not kept up with those of population growth, reducing income per capita, and hurting disproportionately the poor.

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