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2018-01-24 11:50:00

EGYPTIAN MACROECONOMIC TURNAROUND

EGYPTIAN MACROECONOMIC TURNAROUND

IMFEgypt's economy is recovering, supported by prudent macroeconomic policies and initial bold reforms aimed at addressing the major challenges that have confronted the economy in recent years. The task now is to deepen reforms to raise economic growth further, make it last, and spread its benefits to Egypt's rapidly growing population and its youth and women, the IMF says in its latest economic health check.

After more than a year since the launch of the economic reform program, GDP growth is strengthening and inflation is declining. The government trimmed the budget deficit, tourism revenues and remittances are increasing, and the country's foreign exchange reserves have been rebuilt. The floating of the pound and the initial steps to improve the business climate have helped boost growth.

"This macroeconomic turnaround at home and the supportive global economic environment provide a unique opportunity to carry the reform momentum into areas that have historically been hard to tackle. Deep and lasting structural reforms are needed to create jobs as speedily as needed for Egypt's growing population," said Subir Lall, head of the IMF team for Egypt.

Below are the IMF's key recommendations.

Making stability last

Egypt must entrench the stability attained thus far. This entails preserving the flexibility of the exchange rate and further reducing inflation. The government should also continue to lower the budget deficit to contain public debt. For this purpose, the IMF suggests:

  • Collecting more revenue to pay for much-needed social services and to invest in education, health, and infrastructure. Reducing tax exemptions, making the tax system more progressive (richer people pay progressively more in taxes), and making tax administration more efficient will facilitate this process. Revenue could grow by 4 percent of GDP in the medium term as a result, analysis in the report suggests. 
  • Eliminating most fuel subsidies, which benefit mainly the rich, and allowing fuel prices to change in line with costs: This would protect the budget from movements in global oil prices and the exchange rate, and safeguard priority spending on social programs and necessary infrastructure.

Helping low-income families

Although economic stabilization is critical, Egypt also needs to protect its lower-income families. This requires continuously improving the efficiency of social assistance by reducing price subsidies and expanding better-targeted cash transfer programs such as Takaful and Karama to free up resources for those who need them most, while avoiding the buildup of unsustainable public debt.

Letting the private sector flourish

Egypt's growing population needs about 700,000 new jobs every year, which is possible only if the private sector becomes the main engine of growth. For that to happen, the state—which has a prominent role in the Egyptian economy—needs to step back from certain sectors and make room for the private sector to invest and grow.

To this end, priorities include ensuring fair competition for private companies in the markets for their inputs and products, improving the governance and transparency of state-owned enterprises, reducing the perception of corruption, improving access to financing and land, and integrating more women and youth into the labor market.

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Earlier:

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BP: ZOHR HAS STARTED

BP - BP confirmed that production has started from the super-giant Zohr gas field, offshore Egypt. The field is operated by Eni, through its joint venture with The Egyptian General Petroleum Corporation (EGPC), and is the largest natural gas discovery yet to be made in the Mediterranean Sea.

 

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ROSATOM - Cairo, Egypt - On December 11, 2017, Director General of ROSATOM Alexey Likhachev and Egypt’s Minister of Electricity And Renewable Energy Mohamed Shaker signed the Notices to proceed the contracts for the construction of the El Dabaa nuclear power plant.

 

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The approval by the IMF Executive Board of the First Review of the program shows the IMF’s strong support for Egypt in these efforts.

 

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The IMF Executive Board will meet on Friday, November 11 to discuss Egypt’s request for financial assistance under an Extended Fund Facility (EFF) for the amount of $12 billion.

 

 WBG WANTS MORE EGYPT
2016, November, 9, 18:55:00

WBG WANTS MORE EGYPT

The World Bank welcomes Egypt’s recent economic and social reform measures including the floatation of the currency, measures to boost investment especially in Upper Egypt, adjusting energy prices to reflect market conditions, and strengthening the social safety net.

 

 WBG BUYS EGYPT
2016, September, 9, 14:00:00

WBG BUYS EGYPT

The World Bank finances projects for faster delivery of benefits to the people of Egypt in key sectors including social safety nets, energy, transport, water and sanitation, agriculture and irrigation, housing, health, as well as supporting employment-intensive projects and financing for micro and small enterprises. The current portfolio of the World Bank in Egypt includes 24 projects for a total commitment of about US$ 7 billion.

Tags: EGYPT, ECONOMT, IMF

Chronicle:

EGYPTIAN MACROECONOMIC TURNAROUND
2018, July, 16, 10:35:00

CHINA'S INVESTMENT FOR NIGERIA: $14+3 BLN

AN - China National Offshore Oil Corp. (CNOOC) is willing to invest $3 billion in its existing oil and gas operation in Nigeria, the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) said on Sunday following a meeting with the Chinese in Abuja.

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2018, July, 16, 10:30:00

LIBYA'S OIL DOWN 160 TBD

REUTERS - Production at Libya’s giant Sharara oil field was expected to fall by at least 160,000 barrels per day (bpd) on Saturday after two staff were abducted in an attack by an unknown group, the National Oil Corporation (NOC) said.

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2018, July, 16, 10:25:00

BAHRAIN'S GDP UP 3.2%

IMF - Output grew by 3.8 percent in 2017, underpinned by a resilient non-hydrocarbon sector, with robust implementation of GCC-funded projects as well as strong activity in the financial, hospitality, and education sectors. The banking system remains stable with large capital buffers. Growth is projected to decelerate over the medium term.

EGYPTIAN MACROECONOMIC TURNAROUND
2018, July, 16, 10:20:00

NIGERIA'S GDP UP 2%

IMF - Higher oil prices and short-term portfolio inflows have provided relief from external and fiscal pressures but the recovery remains challenging. Inflation declined to its lowest level in more than two years. Real GDP expanded by 2 percent in the first quarter of 2018 compared to the first quarter of last year. However, activity in the non-oil non-agricultural sector remains weak as lower purchasing power weighs on consumer demand and as credit risk continues to limit bank lending.

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