IMF WANTS VIETNAM
IMF - For Vietnam, Greener Growth Can Reduce Climate Change Risks
Higher global temperatures, rising sea levels, and more frequent and more intense extreme weather events are taking its toll on the Vietnamese economy and its people, as seen by the recent November flooding caused by Tropical Cyclone Damrey. How the country adapts and develops innovative solutions to mitigate the impact of climate change will be key.
By 2100, climate change could impact more than 12 percent of the Vietnamese population and reduce growth by 10 percent. The Vietnamese government considers the response to climate change a vital issue and has implemented environmental policies to better cope with these risks.
But the country—which has relied heavily on fossil fuels and overexploitation of natural resources—needs to further adapt its economy toward a more sustainable and ecofriendly growth model.
Climate change is here
Vietnam's vulnerability is exacerbated by its 2,150-mile-long coastline and proximity to the tropics. Vietnam's 95 million people and the bulk of its economic assets, including a large rural population, are concentrated in the coastal lowlands, which are susceptible to typhoons.
Every year since 1990, natural disasters have cost on average about one percent of GDP and caused 500 casualties. In 2017, Vietnam was affected by 12 major storms, which caused deadly floods and destroyed hundreds of thousands of homes and hectares of crops.
Climate change will likely exacerbate pressure on the environment: more frequent and more intense storms could affect crop yields and production, impacting rural incomes, food security, and commodity exports. Increased rainfall intensity will damage roads and railroad networks. Higher temperatures will raise demand for electricity. Risks will weigh disproportionally on the poor who could be forced to migrate inland or towards large cities.
Wanted: more sustainable growth
Vietnam's strong economic performance has helped reduce poverty over the past decades. However, rapid industrialization since the late 1980s has relied on intensive and unsustainable exploitation of forests, fisheries, and other renewable and nonrenewable natural resources.
Moreover, Vietnam's stock of natural capital has declined as mineral and nonmineral resources were depleted. Agriculture and industry have contributed significantly to degradation of natural capital. Vietnam's extensive use of fertilizers contributes largely to polluting land and water and adds to legacy issues related to the war.
Vietnam is among the top ten countries affected by air pollution: in large cities and industrial zones, levels of fine particulate matter are much above safe levels and comparable to that of China. Greenhouse gas emissions are expected to double between 2010 and 2020 and triple by 2030. Electricity production from coal fired plants is a major contributor to air pollution, with a quarter of the domestic supply produced from coal.
Transitioning to a green economy
The Vietnamese authorities recognize the challenges posed by climate change and a more sustainable, greener growth model is at the core of their development agenda. Vietnam ratified the 2016 Paris Agreement on Climate and committed to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by at least 8 percent by 2030 and to achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) by 2030.
The recently created National Committee on Climate Change, chaired by the Prime Minister and including key ministers, oversees climate change and green growth programs.
Policies that can better prepare Vietnam for the future impact of climate change should focus on:
- Lowering the intensity of fossil fuels in Vietnam’s GDP: raising the contribution of renewable energy would help to break the link between greenhouse gas emissions and output.
- Providing stronger incentives for households, firms, and government to pursue green growth: taxation of fossil fuels that fully prices environmental and health externalities would nudge energy demand toward renewables and generate revenue to finance adaptation and mitigation plans.
- Investing in climate resilient infrastructure would help households and firms cope with storms. The expected cost of natural disasters could be usefully included in public debt sustainability analyses.
- Promoting research and development and other innovation policies can provide further incentives to investment in existing clean energy sources and improvements in clean technologies.
- Shifting to autonomous, electric, shared vehicles, as already planned in Singapore, would help reduce congestion and pollution in cities. Improved government capacity to coordinate technological change and promote innovation and green growth would be key.
|January, 22, 08:50:00|
|January, 22, 08:45:00|
|January, 22, 08:40:00|
|January, 22, 08:35:00|
|January, 22, 08:30:00|
|January, 22, 08:25:00|
WNA - Apart from adding capacity, utilisation of existing plants has improved markedly since 2000. In the 1990s capacity factors averaged around 60%, but they have steadily improved since and in 2010, 2011 and 2014 were above 81%. Balakovo was the best plant in 2011 with 92.5%, and again in 2014 with 85.1%.
WNA - India has a flourishing and largely indigenous nuclear power programme and expects to have 14.6 GWe nuclear capacity on line by 2024 and 63 GWe by 2032. It aims to supply 25% of electricity from nuclear power by 2050.
WNA - Mainland China has 38 nuclear power reactors in operation, about 20 under construction, and more about to start construction. The reactors under construction include some of the world's most advanced, to give a 70% increase of nuclear capacity to 58 GWe by 2020-21. Plans are for up to 150 GWe by 2030, and much more by 2050.
PLATTS - "The domestic uranium mining industry needs US government assistance to survive the foreign onslaught -- particularly from Russia and Kazakhstan -- that has undermined the US uranium industry while new players -- particularly China -- will soon make the situation worse," Energy Fuels and Ur-Energy said in a petition they jointly filed with the department.