THE SLOWEST INDIA'S OIL DEMAND

BLOOMBERG - India's oil consumption in 2017 expanded at the slowest pace in four years as a surprise ban on high-value currency notes and a new national sales tax weakened the economy.

The nation's consumption of petroleum products rose 2 percent to about 200 million tons, the Oil Ministry's Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell said Wednesday. That's the slowest since 2013, when demand grew 1.7 percent while global oil prices averaged about $109 a barrel, almost double last year's level.

"The cash ban had a bigger impact on oil demand in the first half, while the goods and services tax impacted the second half," Nevyn Nah, an oil products analyst at Energy Aspects, said by phone from Singapore, adding that good rainfall during the monsoon season also lowered diesel demand.

Growth slowed down in the world's second-most populous nation after Prime Minister Narendra Modi's unprecedented cash ban in 2016 and the chaotic rollout of a goods and services tax last year. India forecast its economy will expand 6.5 percent in the year through March, the slowest pace since Modi came to power in 2014.

India's slowdown last year followed the 11 percent surge in 2016, the biggest gain on record, spurred by rising income levels that propelled greater use of cars, trucks and motorbikes.

The cash ban and the new tax hit truckers the hardest, affecting demand for diesel as they are the largest consumers of the fuel in India. Diesel accounts for almost 40 percent of the country's oil products use.

The International Energy Agency, which expects the country to be the fastest-growing oil consumer through 2040, cut its 2017 demand forecast for India at least three times, following sharp fluctuations in monthly consumption. The agency estimated India's oil demand growth at 135,000 barrels a day in 2017 and 275,000 barrels a day in 2018.

India's total oil products consumption grew 7.5 percent in December, the most in three months. The country consumed about 17 million tons of oil products last month, up from about 16 million tons a year earlier.

"The worst is over," Nah said. "As the government embarks on pro-growth policy to revive the economy and consolidate electoral support before the 2019 general election, Indian oil demand growth is likely to pick up strongly."

-----

Earlier:

2017, December, 27, 12:35:00 INDIA'S STRONG GROWTH IMF - Since the 2011 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP), India has recorded strong growth in both economic activity and financial assets, supported by important structural reforms and terms of trade gains.

2017, December, 27, 12:30:00 INDIA'S LPG UP REUTERS - Shipping data in Thomson Reuters Eikon shows LPG shipments to India will reach 2.4 million tonnes in December, pushing it ahead of top importer China, on 2.3 million tonnes, for the first time.

2017, November, 20, 09:05:00 INDIA'S GAS WILL UP REUTERS - India’s natural gas consumption is expected to rise to 70 billion cubic metres (bcm) by 2022 and 100 bcm by 2030, according to a government think tank and the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, up from 50 bcm now. India burns just 7 percent of what top user the United States consumes in a year with about a quarter of India’s population.

2017, November, 15, 15:15:00 IEA: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND UP BY 30% Global energy needs rise more slowly than in the past but still expand by 30% between today and 2040. This is the equivalent of adding another China and India to today’s global demand.

2017, November, 9, 14:00:00 OPEC: 2040 GLOBAL ENERGY CHANGES Within the grouping of Developing countries, India and China are the two nations with the largest additional energy demand over the forecast period, both in the range of 22–23 mboe/d.

2017, November, 9, 13:50:00 EIA: NUCLEAR ENERGY WILL UP EIA projects that global nuclear capacity will grow at an average annual rate of 1.6% from 2016 through 2040, led predominantly by countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). EIA expects China to continue leading world nuclear growth, followed by India. This growth is expected to offset declines in nuclear capacity in the United States, Japan, and countries in Europe.

2017, September, 25, 13:10:00 RENEWABLE ENERGY UP China accounts for the lion’s share of the upsurge. But Middle East and north African countries are scheduled to have installed 14GW in solar plants by the end of 2018 — a seven-fold increase from 2015. Central and South America are also expected to reach 14GW, nearly five times more than in 2015, while India is set to hit 28GW, a jump of nearly six times.