U.S. DEFICIT UP TO $56.6 BLN
BEA - The U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis announced today that the goods and services deficit was $56.6 billion in January, up $2.7 billion from $53.9 billion in December, revised.
Exports, Imports, and Balance
January exports were $200.9 billion, $2.7 billion less than December exports. January imports were $257.5 billion, down less than $0.1 billion from December imports.
The January increase in the goods and services deficit reflected an increase in the goods deficit of $2.8 billion to $76.5 billion and an increase in the services surplus of $0.1 billion to $19.9 billion.
Year-over-year, the goods and services deficit increased $7.9 billion, or 16.2 percent, from January 2017. Exports increased $9.7 billion or 5.1 percent. Imports increased $17.6 billion or 7.4 percent.
Three-Month Moving Averages
The average goods and services deficit increased $2.5 billion to $53.8 billion for the three months ending in January.
- Average exports increased $1.7 billion to $201.6 billion in January.
- Average imports increased $4.2 billion to $255.4 billion in January.
Year-over-year, the average goods and services deficit increased $7.2 billion from the three months ending in January 2017.
- Average exports increased $13.1 billion from January 2017.
- Average imports increased $20.3 billion from January 2017.
Exports of goods decreased $3.0 billion to $134.2 billion in January.
Exports of goods on a Census basis decreased $3.3 billion.
- Capital goods decreased $2.6 billion.
- Civilian aircraft decreased $1.8 billion.
- Industrial supplies and materials decreased $1.3 billion.
- Fuel oil decreased $0.5 billion.
- Crude oil decreased $0.2 billion.
- Other chemicals decreased $0.2 billion.
- Other goods decreased $1.0 billion.
- Consumer goods increased $1.2 billion.
- Artwork, antiques, stamps, and other collectibles increased $0.5 billion.
- Pharmaceutical preparations increased $0.4 billion.
Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.3 billion.
Exports of services increased $0.3 billion to $66.7 billion in January.
- The largest increase was in charges for the use of intellectual property ($0.1 billion).
- The only decrease was in maintenance and repair services ($0.1 billion).
Imports of goods decreased $0.2 billion to $210.7 billion in January.
Imports of goods on a Census basis decreased $0.3 billion.
- Capital goods decreased $1.3 billion.
- Civilian aircraft decreased $0.9 billion.
- Semiconductors decreased $0.5 billion.
- Consumer goods decreased $0.9 billion.
- Cell phones and other household goods decreased $1.2 billion.
- Industrial supplies and materials increased $2.0 billion.
- Crude oil increased $2.2 billion.
Net balance of payments adjustments increased $0.2 billion.
Imports of services increased $0.2 billion to $46.8 billion in January.
- The largest increase was in other business services ($0.2 billion).
- The largest decrease was in travel (for all purposes including education) ($0.2 billion).
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IMF - Within the next few years, the U.S. economy is expected to enter its longest expansion in recorded history. The Tax Cuts and Jobs Act and the approved increase in spending are providing a significant boost to the economy. We forecast growth of close to 3 percent this year but falling from that level over the medium-term. In my discussions with Secretary Mnuchin he was clear that he regards our medium-term outlook as too pessimistic. Frankly, I hope he is right. That would be good for both the U.S. and the world economy.
IMF - The near-term outlook for the U.S. economy is one of strong growth and job creation. Unemployment is already near levels not seen since the late 1960s and growth is set to accelerate, aided by a near-term fiscal stimulus, a welcome recovery of private investment, and supportive financial conditions. These positive outturns have supported, and been reinforced by, a favorable external environment with a broad-based pick up in global activity. Next year, the U.S. economy is expected to mark the longest expansion in its recorded history. The balance of evidence suggests that the U.S. economy is beyond full employment.
U.S. FRB - Industrial production edged down 0.1 percent in May after rising 0.9 percent in April. Manufacturing production fell 0.7 percent in May, largely because truck assemblies were disrupted by a major fire at a parts supplier. Excluding motor vehicles and parts, factory output moved down 0.2 percent. The index for mining rose 1.8 percent, its fourth consecutive month of growth; the output of utilities moved up 1.1 percent. At 107.3 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 3.5 percent higher in May than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector decreased 0.2 percentage point in May to 77.9 percent, a rate that is 1.9 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.
IMF - South Africa’s potential is significant, yet growth over the past five years has not benefitted from the global recovery. The economy is globally positioned, sophisticated, and diversified, and several sectors—agribusiness, mining, manufacturing, and services—have capacity for expansion. Combined with strong institutions and a young workforce, opportunities are vast. However, several constraints have held growth back. Policy uncertainty and a regulatory environment not conducive to private investment have resulted in GDP growth rates that have not kept up with those of population growth, reducing income per capita, and hurting disproportionately the poor.