OIL PRICE 2018-19: $63
EIA - SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK
Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $66 per barrel (b) in March. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average about $63/b in both 2018 and 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average $4/b lower than Brent prices in both 2018 and 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for July 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending April 5, 2018, suggest a range of $52/b to $78/b encompasses the market expectation for July 2018 WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.99/million British Thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.07/MMBtu in 2019. The average NYMEX futures and options contract values for July 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending April 5, 2018, suggest that a range of $2.30/MMBtu to $3.43/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for July Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.
EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in March, up 260,000 b/d from the February level. Total U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.3 million b/d in 2017. EIA projects that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average U.S. crude oil production level, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. EIA forecasts that 2019 crude oil production will again increase, averaging 11.4 million b/d.
U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 73.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017. EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 81.1 Bcf/d in 2018, establishing a new record. EIA expects natural gas production will rise by 1.7 Bcf/d in 2019.
Growing U.S. natural gas production is expected to support both growing domestic consumption and increasing natural gas exports in the forecast. EIA forecasts U.S. consumption of natural gas to increase by 4.2 Bcf/d (5.7%) in 2018 and by 0.7 Bcf/d (0.9%) in 2019, with electric power generation the leading contributor to this increase. EIA also expects net natural gas exports to increase from 0.4 Bcf/d in 2017 to an annual average of 2.2 Bcf/d in 2018 and 4.4 Bcf/d in 2019.
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FT - US shale oil companies have started to generate free cash thanks to the rise in crude prices, a landmark moment for an industry that has until now relied on an inflow of capital to support its growth.
WBG - Bank Group must strengthen its financial capacity to meet the aspirations of its shareholders, mobilize capital at scale, and respond to global development challenges.
IMF - we agreed on the need to accelerate structural reforms and access to finance in order to raise overall investment and medium-term growth rates to support job creation. The Fund, through its policy advice, can assist countries to design and implement growth-friendly fiscal adjustment, when needed, that responds to the country-specific sources of debt vulnerabilities while preserving needed investments in infrastructure, human capital, and other priority expenditures
IMF - Directors also agreed that the Fund should continue to address governance issues and corruption in surveillance when the applicable standard of the Integrated Surveillance Decision has been met.