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2018-04-09 11:25:00

OPEC OIL PRODUCTION DOWN TO 32.14 MBD

OPEC OIL PRODUCTION DOWN TO 32.14 MBD

PLATTS OPEC oil output in March fell to 32.14 million b/d, its lowest level in 11 months, led by declines in seven out of the 14 member countries, an S&P Global Platts survey of OPEC and oil industry officials and analysts showed.

Supply disruptions in Venezuela and Angola along with steady falls in Saudi Arabia, Libya, Algeria and Nigeria dragged March output down by 250,000 b/d from February. The only countries to see a production rise were the UAE, Iraq and Ecuador.

The March output figure is 590,000 b/d below OPEC's notional ceiling of about 32.73 million b/d, when every country's quota under its production cut agreement is added up.

The cuts, which began January 2017 and are scheduled to run through the end of this year, are aimed at rebalancing the market by inducing draws of barrels held in storage.

OPEC's compliance with its cuts has been impressive though recent declines have been exacerbated by unplanned supply outages in Venezuela, Angola and Libya.

VENEZUELA'S CRISIS DEEPENS

The staggering decline in Venezuelan crude output shows no signs of letting up. March production fell 80,000 b/d to 1.49 million b/d, the lowest level recorded since Platts began its OPEC survey in 1988, save a major industry strike in late 2002 and early 2003.

Exports have continued to nosedive but in March, the country's domestic refining woes worsened. Refinery runs are expected to fall further in the coming months with some refinery closures expected due to underinvestment and a lack of crude to process.

Crude output has fallen 840,000 b/d since March 2015 as Venezuela's oil sector has been plagued by spiraling debt, mismanagement, corruption, crumbling infrastructure and a lack of investment.

ANGOLA, SAUDI PERSIST WITH CUTS

Angola, Africa's second largest oil producer, is facing a plethora of fields that are mature and in decline, and production in March plummeted to an 18-month low of 1.55 million b/d.

This coupled with a lack of recent upstream investment has dragged output down by 250,000 b/d in the past two years.

Angolan exports in March fell sharply, participants in the survey said, exacerbated by the particularly steep fall in loadings of key grades Girassol and Pazflor, both of which are produced from mature fields.

Oil production is expected to remain at low levels for the next few months until the startup of the 230,000 b/d deepwater Kaombo field in July/August, they added.

OPEC kingpin Saudi Arabia produced 9.92 million b/d in March, a fall of 60,000 b/d from February, reflected in lower exports and some ongoing refinery maintenance.

Saudi Arabia has cut the most of all its OPEC brethren in terms of barrels -- an average of 574,000 b/d since the deal began -- achieving 118% compliance, according to Platts survey data.

UAE, IRAQ BUCK TREND

The UAE, Iraq and Ecuador bucked the trend in March, posting a rise in output. UAE crude oil production rebounded to 2.86 million b/d last month following planned maintenance at fields feeding into the Murban export grade.

Iraq increased output to 4.46 million b/d in March as a drop in exports from the Kurdistan region was offset by slight rises in southern exports.

Since mid-March, Iraq resumed production at the disputed Kirkuk fields of Bai Hassan field and the Avana Dome, with a combined output of around 50,000 b/d, survey participants said. Iraq has consistently been a back-slider on OPEC compliance.

The group's second largest producer has exceeded its target by the most in OPEC -- about 76,000 b/d since the deal began -- with its compliance level a mere 64%.

Meanwhile, Libya and Nigeria both posted a dip in March production, the first time their production has declined this year.

Both countries had been exempt from the OPEC production cut agreement until this year, when they were given an unofficial combined cap of 2.80 million b/d.

Libyan production flipped to 970,000 b/d in March from 1.03 million b/d on lower exports and the closure of the EL Feel or Elephant field due to security issues.

PERMANENT FRAMEWORK

Despite such high compliance, OPEC and its non-OPEC allies now face a hurdle of how to manage a tighter oil market.

Talk of longer-lasting cooperation between OPEC and its allies has raised the stakes, and the way it manages these market expectations will be tested in the coming months.

Key ministers from the 24-country pact will meet in India and Saudi Arabia in the next two weeks to hone in on the mechanics of a permanent framework for oil market cooperation.

Russia has already expressed its willingness to work with the OPEC coalition indefinitely to regulate global oil supplies with energy minister Alexander Novak even advocating the creation of a new global body to monitor crude markets.

The Platts OPEC figures were compiled by surveying OPEC and oil industry officials, traders and analysts, as well as reviewing proprietary shipping data.

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Earlier:

 85% GLOBAL OIL DEAL
2018, April, 4, 09:30:00

85% GLOBAL OIL DEAL

BLOOMBERG - The global deal to rein in oil output has removed “85 percent of the problem” of oversupply, and OPEC and allied producers are seeking ways to cooperate after the agreement ends, according to United Arab Emirates Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei.

 

 РОССИЯ ВЫПОЛНЯЕТ СОГЛАШЕНИЕ
2018, April, 4, 09:25:00

RUSSIA EXECUTES THE AGREEMENT

PLATTS - Russia is planning to fully comply with its commitment to cut oil output under the OPEC/non-OPEC deal this month, Russian energy minister Alexander Novak said Tuesday, the Prime news agency reported.

 LONG-TERM OPEC COOPERATION
2018, April, 2, 09:25:00

LONG-TERM OPEC COOPERATION

SHANA - Leaders of the UAE, OPEC’s biggest producer Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC member Russia support extending energy cooperation beyond 2018. Cooperation on the part of a politically influential oil producer like Russia would add to the weight and influence of OPEC in global energy markets, both politically and in terms of decision-making.

 

 OPEC - RUSSIA ALLIANCE
2018, March, 30, 11:25:00

OPEC - RUSSIA ALLIANCE

REUTERS - “We are working to shift from a year-to-year agreement to a 10 to 20 year agreement,” the crown prince told Reuters in an interview in New York late on Monday. “We have agreement on the big picture, but not yet on the detail.”

 

 NEW OPEC RECORD: 138%
2018, March, 26, 08:00:00

NEW OPEC RECORD: 138%

OPEC - Participating OPEC and non-OPEC producing countries have set a new record in February with their voluntary production adjustments, achieving a level of 138%, according to the OPEC-non-OPEC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC).

 

 OPEC OIL PRODUCTION: 32.19 MBD
2018, March, 16, 10:25:00

OPEC OIL PRODUCTION: 32.19 MBD

PLATTS - Demand for OPEC crude will average 32.61 million b/d in 2018, the organization calculated, a 200,000 b/d decrease from last month's projection.

 

 OPEC'S OIL DEMAND: 32.86 MBD
2018, February, 14, 10:00:00

OPEC'S OIL DEMAND: 32.86 MBD

PLATTS - As a result, demand for OPEC crude will average 32.86 million b/d in 2018, the organization calculated.

Tags: OPEC, RUSSIA, OIL, UPSTREAM, PRODUCTION

Chronicle:

OPEC OIL PRODUCTION DOWN TO 32.14 MBD
2018, April, 23, 14:25:00

U.S. SHALE OIL UP

FT - US shale oil companies have started to generate free cash thanks to the rise in crude prices, a landmark moment for an industry that has until now relied on an inflow of capital to support its growth.

OPEC OIL PRODUCTION DOWN TO 32.14 MBD
2018, April, 23, 14:20:00

WBG WANT COUNTRIES

WBG - Bank Group must strengthen its financial capacity to meet the aspirations of its shareholders, mobilize capital at scale, and respond to global development challenges.

OPEC OIL PRODUCTION DOWN TO 32.14 MBD
2018, April, 23, 14:15:00

IMF WANTS AFRICA

IMF - we agreed on the need to accelerate structural reforms and access to finance in order to raise overall investment and medium-term growth rates to support job creation. The Fund, through its policy advice, can assist countries to design and implement growth-friendly fiscal adjustment, when needed, that responds to the country-specific sources of debt vulnerabilities while preserving needed investments in infrastructure, human capital, and other priority expenditures

OPEC OIL PRODUCTION DOWN TO 32.14 MBD
2018, April, 23, 14:10:00

IMF'S CORRUPTION

IMF - Directors also agreed that the Fund should continue to address governance issues and corruption in surveillance when the applicable standard of the Integrated Surveillance Decision has been met.

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