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2018-05-23 10:15:00

NO OIL FUTURE 2040

NO OIL FUTURE 2040

BLOOMBERG The global transition to electric vehicles and renewable sources of power will see oil company revenue plummet.

The rollout of 540 million electric vehicles by 2040 will cause oil demand to peak in the mid-2020s, slashing income by $19 trillion, according to Oxford, England-based Aurora Energy Research Ltd. Gas and power will provide more than half of final energy consumption, up from 39 percent currently.

Aurora's "analysis points to a possible energy future of mass electrification, digitization, and new technologies, in which the rise in electric vehicles and continued improvements in fuel efficiency lead to peak oil demand occurring in the mid-2020," Richard Howard, head of research at Aurora, said in the report. "This flips the very idea of 'peak oil' -- previously hypothesized for the supply side – as electricity grows in importance as a transport energy source."

Oil companies are struggling to find an identity for themselves in a greener, more environmentally aware world. But they recognize that they need to change to survive. Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc are trying to find ways to offer EV charging alongside traditional gasoline pumps at service stations and are buying up renewable generation.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates global power demand will surge 58 percent by 2040 from 2016 levels, with $10.2 trillion of investment needed in the sector. During the same period the growth of electric vehicles is seen displacing about 8 million barrels of oil a day -- equivalent to the current total production of Iran and Iraq.

OPEC's strategy will change to increase production to gain market share from one of restricting supply in order to prop up prices, according to Aurora. With demand declining in the 2030s, the company's "burnout scenario" predicts that oil prices could fall to $32 per barrel in 2040 from about $80 currently.

Total fossil fuel revenue will fall to $21 trillion, 10 percent of which is due to coal, as that fuel loses favor in power generation. Prices will collapse to $28 a ton by 2040, from about $90 now, "barely above the marginal cost of production and transport."

Natural gas will probably emerge as the main fossil fuel "winner" as it balances renewables in power generation and is used as a substitute for oil in petrochemicals. Long-term gas demand is set to increase by 15 percent, or by 750 billion cubic meters, compared to business as usual, Aurora said.

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Earlier:

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2018, January, 15, 10:10:00

RUSSIAN NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY UP TO 18.9%

ROSATOM - Following 2017, a share of electricity production by Russian nuclear power plants has increased up to 18.9%.

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2017, June, 2, 16:25:00

УМНАЯ ЭНЕРГИЯ РОССИИ

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2017, May, 16, 12:10:00

CHINA'S GLOBAL ENERGY

Cooperation will focus on grid planning, fundamental research, policy coordination, project development and information sharing, according to the deals signed between GEIDCO and the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, the African Union Commission, the League of Arab States and the grid management bureau with the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf.

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2017, April, 10, 18:45:00

INDIA'S ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

Peak electricity demand has grown nearly 13% over the past two years as a growing middle class seeks new services, such as air conditioning, which continue to place higher demands on the system. Over the next 25 years, energy demand is expected to more than double as a result.

 

 

Tags: OIL, GAS, PRICE, INVESTMENT

Chronicle:

NO OIL FUTURE 2040
2018, June, 20, 12:45:00

NORWAY'S OIL PRODUCTION 1.629 MBD DOWN 236 TBD

NPD - Preliminary production figures for May 2018 show an average daily production of 1 629 000 barrels of oil, NGL and condensate, which is a decrease of 236 000 barrels per day compared to April.

NO OIL FUTURE 2040
2018, June, 20, 12:40:00

LIBYA'S OIL PRODUCTION DOWN 400 TBD

PLATTS - Libyan crude production has fallen around 400,000 b/d -- or nearly halved -- due to militia attacks on the eastern oil terminals of Ras Lanuf and Es Sider, the head of the country?s National Oil Corp. said Tuesday.

NO OIL FUTURE 2040
2018, June, 20, 12:35:00

VENEZUELA'S OIL PRODUCTION DOWN

PLATTS - Venezuela's crude output averaged 1.36 million b/d in May, down from 1.41 million b/d in April, and 1.9 million b/d in May 2017, according to S&P Global Platts. The International Energy Agency said it could fall to 800,000 b/d or even lower next year.

NO OIL FUTURE 2040
2018, June, 20, 12:30:00

NIGERIAN OIL SALES

PLATTS - Nigerian oil has been slow to sell this month as bidders for the country's July-loading heavy and light sweet crudes have been absent from the market. Market participants pegged the amount of unsold Nigerian barrels loading in July at 20 million-34 million barrels, amounting to roughly 40%-75% of what is produced in a month.

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