2022-02-14 12:10:00
OIL PRICE: ABOVE $94
REUTERS- Feb 14 - Oil prices were steady on Monday after hitting their highest in more than seven years on fears that a possible invasion of Ukraine by Russia could trigger U.S. and European sanctions that would disrupt exports from one of the world's top oil producers.
Brent crude was down 12 cents, or 0.1%, at $94.32 a barrel by 0844 GMT, after earlier hitting a peak of $96.16, the highest since October 2014.
U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 1 cent, or less than 0.1%, to $93.11 a barrel, hovering near a session-high of $94.94, the loftiest since September 2014.
Comments from the United States about an imminent attack by Russia on Ukraine have rattled global financial markets.
Russia could invade Ukraine at any time and might create a surprise pretext for an attack, the United States said on Sunday.
"If ... troop movement happens, Brent crude won't have any trouble rallying above the $100 level," OANDA analyst Edward Moya said in a note.
"Oil prices will remain extremely volatile and sensitive to incremental updates regarding the Ukraine situation."
The tensions come as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, a group known as OPEC+, struggle to ramp up output despite monthly pledges to increase production by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) until March.
While geopolitical tensions help add to the bullish view, this oil supercycle is fundamentally driven, RBC Capital analysts said.
"We see upside visibility for prices to touch or flirt with $115/bbl or higher this summer," said analyst Mike Tran in a note.
The International Energy Agency said the gap between OPEC+ output and its target widened to 900,000 bpd in January, while JP Morgan said the gap for OPEC alone was at 1.2 million bpd.
"We note signs of strain across the group: seven members of OPEC-10 failed to meet quota increases in the month, with the largest shortfall exhibited by Iraq," JP Morgan analysts said in a Feb. 11 note.
The bank added that a supercycle is in full swing with "oil prices likely to overshoot to $125 a barrel on widening spare capacity risk premium".
Investors are also watching talks between the United States and Iran to revive the 2015 nuclear deal.
Iran's foreign ministry spokesman said on Monday during a news conference in Tehran that the talks have not reached a dead end, even though a senior Iranian security official said earlier that progress in talks was becoming "more difficult".
In the United States, the robust oil prices are encouraging energy firms to ramp up output as they added the most oil rigs in four years last week, energy services firm Baker Hughes Co said on Friday.
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Earlier:
2022, February, 11, 11:45:00
OIL PRICE: ABOVE $91 ANEW
Brent fell 58 cents, or 0.6%, to $90.83 a barrel, WTI declined 45 cents, or 0.5%, to $89.43 a barrel.
2022, February, 11, 11:40:00
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND 2022: +4.2 MBD
In 2022, oil demand growth is expected at 4.2 mb/d unchanged from last month, with OECD and non-OECD projected to grow by 1.8 mb/d and 2.3 mb/d, respectively.
2022, February, 10, 15:20:00
OIL PRICE: NEAR $92 ANEW
Brent rose 34 cents, or 0.4%, to $91.89 a barrel, WTI was at $90.17 a barrel, up 51 cents, or 0.6%.
2022, February, 10, 15:10:00
FAR IRANIAN DEAL
Indirect talks between Iran and the United States on salvaging the deal with world powers resumed on Tuesday after a 10-day break,
2022, February, 9, 12:20:00
SAUDI ARABIA'S PRODUCTION CAPACITY 13.5 MBD
We are targeting our production capacity to become 13.4, 13.5 million barrels a day by 2027.
2022, February, 9, 12:15:00
IRAN SANCTIONS, GUARANTEES
“When it comes to the Vienna talks on the lifting of sanctions, one of the key issues is to get the necessary guarantees, especially from the Western parties, about the fulfilment of their commitments,”
2022, February, 3, 13:45:00
OPEC+ RUSSIA: GROWTH BY 0.4 MBD
Reconfirm the production adjustment plan and the monthly production adjustment mechanism approved at the 19th ONOMM and the decision to adjust upward the monthly overall production by 0.4 mb/d for the month of March 2022.
