EUROPEAN GAS PRICES DOWN

BLOOMBERG- Sept 6, 2022 - Europe’s natural gas and power prices eased with politicians scrambling to fix a deepening energy crisis after Moscow switched off its main pipeline to the continent.

Benchmark gas futures dropped as much as 13% after surging on Monday. Russia’s decision not to resume supply through the Nord Stream link after it was shut last week for maintenance work has forced European governments to plan market interventions, including price caps. They are trying to avoid blackouts and protect the regional economy that’s on the brink of recession.

While gas storage sites are being filled more quickly than expected, concerns remain over how Europe will replace lost supplies from Russia when it gets cold and demand rises. Germany is unlikely to meet its target for filling inventories to 95% by the start of November, according to people familiar with the matter.

Moscow’s move rippled through markets on Monday, sending the euro to a two-decade low and equities tumbling. Still, gas and electricity prices pared some of their large gains from earlier in the day as traders weighed the intervention plans. Also, gas demand for now is relatively low before the heating season starts.

Dutch front-month gas, a benchmark for Europe, was 8.9% lower at 224 euros per megawatt-hour by 10:16 a.m. in Amsterdam. The contract rose 15% on Monday after a sharp drop last week. UK-equivalent gas futures declined 12%. Benchmark German year-ahead power fell as much as 11% to 505 euros per megawatt-hour.

“Maybe Russia has played the potential hand too soon as we are still not in the colder winter months,” said Nick Campbell, a director at Inspired Plc. With gas stockpiles still rising, and all the moves that Europe’s governments are planning, shutting Nord Stream -- which had reduced flows even before the halt -- “perhaps is not the death blow that the Russian state felt it would be.”

European Union energy ministers are set to meet on Friday, and the proposals on the table so far include power-demand curbs, measures to boost liquidity in the sector as collateral demands skyrocket, and a price cap on gas. Incoming UK Prime Minister Liz Truss has drafted plans to freeze energy bills for households.

Germany plans to keep two nuclear plants available this winter, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed to help each other ahead of the EU talks this week, with Macron pledging to ship gas to Germany if necessary.

There’s still too much uncertainty about the impact the Nord Stream shutdown will have on energy consumption and Germany’s economy, analysts at Capital Economics said in a note. “While rationing has become more likely, it could still be avoided, for example if the winter were warmer than usual.”

-----