2023-03-31 07:30:00
INFLATION ; A MOVING TARGET
By Andy Warr, TophatFinanceGroup.
Moving through the banking sector turmoil has been wrapped with inflation data from different central banks fronts for the past two weeks.
This has trickled into the sensitive commodities markets especial Oil tabs seeing a thin price margin with the $70/bbl proving to be a sticky magnet,rather a line in the sand on the #CL currently trading at $69.71/bbl & $75.47/bbl on the #BRENT both paring gains of (+0.64%) at middle of the European session.
On the Banking Stocks tabs:
- First Republic Bank trading at 16.57 after a wild roller coaster ride,
- Deustche Bank springing up almost 5% intraday,
- Credit Suisse facing a probe dur to lack of accountability.
Perhaps, its time to look at Dr.Copper for guidance on economic health ?
On the scales of supply & demand within the Oil markets:
- Russia is now China's biggest Oil supplier,
- Data suggests there being too much demand for Oil in China,
- Demand impulse for Oil raising several concerns.
Taking into account 100k b/d in Europe, last week IEA & OPEC raised Russian inventory build to 86.1m barrels,last year it was 87m barrels ; 21m barrels in Canada was discovered.
This suggests that demand is taking a major hit by banking crisis,however there seems to be light at the end of the tunnel with the 25BP consensus coming in at the end of last week.
Banking crisis seems to be a regulatory issue not a monetary policy issue.
Dollar may get a leg up higher soon despite the fluid situation.Natural credit tightening by banks being a factor to consider,also remembering the Core PCE Data during the week.
S&P Regional Banks Index down (-37.50%) at 74.81, S&P Financials Index at 515.96 down (-12.85%).
OPEC Meetings in a weeks time may shed light of matters Oil.
Considerations of buying 1m b/d less this quarter than previous may help in regaining momentum with respect to pricing of Oil.
Cutting a little Oil in 2nd quarter,may bring a floor on the pricing level,bulls to $90/bbl is more on demand perspective than a presumed cut.
Russia to place nuclear weapons in Belarus may be another factor to consider for speculators as it is in line with volatility vis a vis geopolitics.
Don't throw the baby out with the bath water just yet,banking sector may prove its resilience in the long-run basis.
Good week ahead.
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Earlier:
2023, March, 24, 07:35:00
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND WILL UP BY 2.3 MBD
For 2023, the world oil demand growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.3 mb/d, with the OECD Americas and OECD Europe revised slightly lower, while China is revised higher, with jet/kerosene and gasoline leading demand growth.
2023, March, 24, 07:25:00
GLOBAL RENEWABLES CAPACITY UP
Renewable generation capacity increased by 295 GW (+9.6%) in 2022. Solar energy continued to lead capacity expansion, with a massive increase of 192 GW (+22%), followed by wind energy with 75 GW (+9%). Renewable hydropower capacity increased by 21 GW (+2%) and bioenergy by 8 GW (+5%). Geothermal energy increased by a very modest 181 MW.
2023, February, 15, 13:50:00
GLOBAL OIL GAS CHANGES
We can replace all crude oil with cellulosic biomass (corn stover, forest debris, etc.) liquid drop-in hydrocarbons if the conversion process uses massive external sources of heat and hydrogen.
2023, January, 30, 11:30:00
GLOBAL ENERGY TRANSITION FOR PEOPLE
As the world seeks to address climate and biodiversity challenges and move to clean energy solutions for example, these will deliver impacts within the workplace.
2023, January, 9, 12:20:00
GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS 2023
Electric utilities are facing a future of increased competition, disruptive technologies, and changing customer demands.
2022, December, 16, 12:40:00
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND UP BY 2.3 MBD
The IEA predicts oil demand will rise by 2.3 million b/d in 2022 and by a further 1.7 million b/d in 2023, noting the contrast between strong gasoil and diesel use, especially in non-OECD economies, and weak petrochemical consumption in Europe and Asia.
2022, November, 1, 17:10:00
GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND WILL UP BY 23%
Global primary energy demand is forecast to continue growing in the medium- and long-term, increasing by a significant 23% in the period to 2045. The world needs to annually add on average 2.7 million barrels of oil equivalent a day to 2045.
