RUSSIA INFLATION SLOWDOWN
By Andy Warr, TophatFinanceGroup.
Starting off the 2nd Quarter,its coming to the realisation that not all recessions are created equal.
Oil has been on a thin range of trade,still maintaining the $80/bbl stability average with WTI trading at $82.52 & $86.41 on the #BRENT.
The range has been about (+/-)5$ despite all the data coming in from last week.
This is due to the OPEC+ data influx from the previous week as we approach the geopolitics front with more prudence.
On the focus in Metals portfolio ;
De-dollarisation is a key factor to the Gold price.
Data on Thursday showed that U.S. producer price index inflation grew at a slower pace in March, coming a day after data showed consumer price inflation also eased.
The readings furthered expectations that inflation was retreating, which could invite a less hawkish Federal Reserve.
The Banks remain neutral in #Silver and Open Interest is not materially increasing despite the rally from $17/ounce to >$25/ounce.
As I write this,we are currently at $25.90/ounce after consistent bullish run from mid Wednesday(European session) when trading at $24.88/ounce pivot price.
It seems the Banks don't want to get run over in Silver and are stepping back, much like Palladium in 2018.
This suggests that Silver is about to be a tad bit volatile in the financial quarters to come.
Russia's annual inflation slows to 3.5% in March.
Annual inflation in Russia slowed to 3.51% in March 2023 from 10.99% in February, reaching its lowest level since July 2020.
Furthermore, based on 10 days of April data this year and last year, Russia's annual inflation slowed to about 2.8% as of April 10 from 3.51% in late March.
Provided this trend holds, year-on-year inflation may ease to 2.4%-2.5% by late April, but could start climbing from May due to the last year's low base.
Russian President Vladimir Putin said on Tuesday that annual inflation in the country will drop below 3% by April, though it is important to avoid both an excessive acceleration of inflation and its excessive slowdown.
The Bank of Russia's inflation forecast for 2023 is 5-7%, while the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development is 5.5%.
Earlier on March 17, Russia's central bank expectedly kept its key rate at 7.5%, saying the risks of higher inflation are still there.
On the FX Spot Markets,we see that the #Euro has become the strongest vs the Dollar in a year timespan,trading at 1.10200.
Currently,we are trading at 1.1064 as we approach the European Open.
This is where I'd suggest we put our brakes on because a pullback may come in deep in the coming weeks.
As we look forward to increasing trading volume after the Easter holidays and Ramadan,I would like to wish you all many blessings in your endeavours.
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