2023-07-14 06:55:00
OIL PRICES 2023-24: $80 - $84
U.S. EIA - Jul. 11, 2023 - SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK
Overview
U.S. economy. Our forecast assumes U.S. GDP growth of 1.5% in 2023 and 1.3% in 2024, which is revised up from last month’s forecast of 1.3% in 2023 and 1.0% in 2024. The upward revision is partially driven by an updated estimate of real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2023 (1Q23) resulting from more consumer spending and aggregate investment than assumed in last month’s STEO. We use the S&P Global macroeconomic model, and we input our energy price forecasts to get the forecasts for the U.S. economy used in STEO.
Crude oil prices. We forecast that the Brent crude oil spot price will average $78 per barrel (b) in July. Crude oil prices gradually increase throughout our forecast, reaching about $80/b in 4Q23 and averaging about $84/b in 2024 because we expect that global oil inventories will decline over the next five quarters.
U.S. renewable diesel production. As a result of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) revised Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) rule establishing biofuel volume requirements that was issued on June 21, we have reduced our forecast for renewable diesel production growth. However, we still expect renewable diesel production will grow in the United States to reach 219,000 b/d in 2024.
Natural gas prices. We expect the Henry Hub spot price will rise in the coming months as declining natural gas production narrows the existing surplus of natural gas inventories compared with the five-year average. Henry Hub prices in our forecast average more than $2.80 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) in the second half of 2023 (2H23), up from about $2.40/MMBtu in the first half of the year.
Electricity generation. Solar has been the leading source of new generating capacity in the United States so far this year, and the new capacity contributes to our forecast of 23% more U.S. solar generation this summer (June, July, and August) than last summer. The increase in solar capacity, along with lower natural gas prices, reduces our forecast of coal-fired electricity generation this year. We expect that U.S. coal-fired generation during 2H23 will be 75 billion kilowatthours (18%) less than 2H22.
Supplements. We periodically publish report and article supplements to the STEO to provide an indepth analysis of special topics related to our forecasts.
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Earlier:
2023, July, 7, 06:53:00
OPEC+ STABILIZE MARKET
UAE energy minister Suhail al-Mazrouei said the voluntary OPEC+ cuts would bear fruit soon and blamed the current market malaise on the disconnect between physical and paper traders.
2023, June, 9, 06:40:00
OIL PRICES 2023-24: $79 - $84
The Brent crude oil spot price will average $79 per barrel (b) in the second half of 2023 (2H23) and $84/b in 2024.
2023, June, 2, 07:00:00
OIL PRICE: BRENT ABOVE $74, WTI ABOVE $70
Brent rose 34 cents, or 0.46% to $74.62 a barrel, WTI rose 30 cents, or 0.43%, to $70.40.
2023, May, 26, 06:55:00
OPEC+ RUSSIA: NO CHANGES
Earlier this year Russia introduced a voluntary cut of 500,000 b/d from March after EU sanctions on imports of most Russian oil and G7 price caps came into force.
2023, May, 19, 06:45:00
ЦЕНА URALS: $55.97
Средняя цена на нефть Urals за период мониторинга с 15 апреля по 14 мая 2023 года составила $55,97 за баррель, или $408,6 за тонну. Цена нефти North Sea Dated за этот период – $79,87.
2023, April, 14, 07:40:00
GLOBAL OIL DEMAND WILL UP BY 2.3 MBD ANEW
For 2023, the world oil demand growth forecast remains unchanged at 2.3 mb/d, with the OECD Americas and OECD Europe revised slightly lower, while China is revised higher, with jet/kerosene and gasoline leading demand growth.
2023, March, 10, 16:50:00
OIL PRICES 2023-24: $84 - $78
The Brent crude oil spot price will fall from an average of $84/b in the second quarter of 2023 (2Q23) to $81/b in 4Q23 and then average $78/b in 2024.
