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World economic growth has been revised down to 3.1% for 2015 and to 3.4% for 2016. While OECD growth remains unchanged at 2.0% for 2015 and 2.1% in 2016, major emerging economies are increasingly facing challenges. China’s and India’s growth forecasts have been revised down by 0.1 percentage points to now stand at 6.8% and 6.4% for China and at 7.4% and 7.6% for India in 2015 and 2016, respectively.
The demand outlook for next year is looking softer mainly due to recent downgrades to the macroeconomic outlook and expectations that crude oil prices will not see repeats of the heavy losses of 2015.
World Oil Demand. In 2015, world oil demand growth is expected to be around 1.46 mb/d after an upward revision of around 84 tb/d, mainly to reflect better-than-expected data from OECD region. In 2016, world oil demand is anticipated to rise by 1.29 mb/d after a downward revision of around 50 tb/d.
The latest tumble in the price of oil, which hit a six-year low in August, is expected to cut non-OPEC supply in 2016 by nearly 0.5 million barrels per day (mb/d) – the biggest decline in more than two decades.
Despite slowing US output of light tight oil, global oil supply growth remained at a steep 3.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year in April.
In its April Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency raised its forecast of 2015 global oil demand by 90,000 b/d to 93.6 million b/d, a gain of 1.1 million b/d on the year and a notable acceleration of the 700,000-b/d growth in 2014, as the global economy slowly gains momentum. Colder-than-year-earlier temperatures in most Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development economies in this year’s first quarter also accounted for part of the upward revision.
Steady climb in global demand growth prompts slight upward revision of 2015 forecast.
A Deloitte MarketPoint analysis suggested large-field projects, each producing more than 25,000 b/d, could bring on 1.835 million b/d in oil supply this year of which 635,000 b/d would be from members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and the rest from non-OPEC productions.
The IEA Oil Market Report for December cut the outlook for 2015 global oil demand growth by 230 000 barrels per day (230 kb/d) to 0.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) on lower expectations for the Former Soviet Union and other oil‐exporting countries.
Global oil supply inched up by 35 000 barrels per day (35 kb/d) in October to 94.2 million barrels per day (mb/d)