Total global oil demand is now assumed at 99.73 mb/d in 2020, with 2H20 forecast to see higher consumption than 1H20. Considering the latest developments, downward risks currently outweigh any positive indicators and suggest further likely downward revisions in oil demand growth, should the current status persist.

Oil demand growth in 2020 is revised down by 0.23 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment. With this, global oil demand is now forecast to grow by 0.99 mb/d and average 100.73 mb/d for 2020,

EIA now expects global petroleum and liquid fuels demand will rise by 1.0 million b/d in 2020, which is lower than the forecast increase in the January STEO of 1.3 million b/d in 2020, and by 1.5 million b/d in 2021.

For 2020, oil demand growth is revised up by 0.14 mb/d from the previous month’s assessment and is forecast at 1.22 mb/d, mainly reflecting an improved economic outlook for 2020. As a result, total world oil demand is projected to rise from 99.77 mb/d in 2019 to 100.98 mb/d in 2020.

World oil demand in 2019 is expected to grow by 1.02 mb/d, which is 0.08 mb/d lower than last month’s projection. The drop can be attributed to weaker-than-expected data in 1H19 from various global demand centres and slower economic growth projections for the remainder of the year. Both OECD and non-OECD demand growth forecasts were revised lower, by 0.03 mb/d and 0.05 mb/d, respectively. In 2020, world oil demand is projected to increase by 1.08 mb/d.

Total oil demand for the year is now anticipated to reach 99.92 mb/d. For 2020, world oil demand is expected to grow by 1.14 mb/d, in line with last month’s projection, with total world consumption anticipated to average 101.05 mb/d.

In 2019, the global oil demand growth forecast remains at 1.14 mb/d, with expectations for global oil demand to reach 99.87 mb/d. In 2020, the initial forecast indicates growth of around 1.14 mb/d y-o-y, as global oil demand is anticipated to surpass the 100 mb/d threshold on an annual basis, to average 101.01 mb/d for the year.

The OECD sees global GDP growth rebounding to 3.4% in 2020, assuming that trade disputes are resolved and confidence rebuilds. This suggests that global oil demand growth will have scope to recover from 1.2 mb/d in 2019 to 1.4 mb/d in 2020.

To put these two things together, the shale oil affecting both the volume of export and the price, plus the developments in clean technologies, tell me that for those countries who meet in Vienna, it has never been more important for them to diversify their economies. We have seen in Algeria, for example, one of the main reasons is the low oil price and the impact on the economy, and the same with Venezuela and elsewhere.

Iranian Minister of Petroleum Bijan Zangeneh said the current crude oil market was in a fragile state, adding, “If the US decided to exert more pressure on Iran, the oil market would become unpredictably more fragile.”