China remains the biggest buyer of Russian coal but Moscow has said India may overtake it by the start of the next decade as Beijing plans cutbacks on coal usage for power generation.

Russia ranks third globally in coal reserves (182 billion tons) and is the sixth-largest coal producer in the world (accounting for 4.5% of global coal production). Russia’s coking coal is typically used in metallurgy production such as steel manufacturing.

Inner Mongolia, which leads China in coal production this year, already has 88 gigawatts of wind and solar capacity, with another 170 gigawatts in the pipeline. That’s a combined total that would dwarf the power fleet of Germany.

Amid the lower projections, the department said, "India remains the key export destination for Australian metallurgical coal along with Japan, with volumes remaining relatively stable for both."

According to Russian customs data, the Russia-India bilateral trade volume hit a record US$23.1 billion in the first four months of the current year, marking a 10% rise versus the same period in 2023.

Following the South Korean government's decision to restrict state-owned power-generating companies from importing Russian thermal coal from the spot market towards the end of 2023, Russian exports lost ground to Colombian thermal coal supply in recent months.

The world’s most populous nation expects to add 15.4 gigawatts in the year through March 2025, the most in nine years, said people familiar with the matter, asking not to be named as the information isn’t yet public.

the world’s 60 largest lenders had provided around $705bn in financing in 2023 alone.

Australia's total coking coal exports are expected to increase by 14% from 2023 levels to 171.9 million mt in 2025,

Even as China has dramatically ramped up wind and solar in recent years, its power demand, including from electric vehicles, continues to outpace new supply, creating an ever greater need for fossil fuels.