OIL AT USD90 BY 2020
Oil price scenario for the period until 2020 anticipates a gentle decline to $90 a barrel. Given the budgetary pressures are already developing among GCC oil exporters, such a protracted decline would have negative credit implications for some countries of the GCC, Moody's stated yesterday.
"In such a scenario, sovereign credit quality in the GCC would be affected to varying degrees, with Bahrain and Oman most vulnerable to a potential downward adjustment of the sovereign ratings given their high fiscal break-even prices and declining oil production. The UAE and Saudi Arabia would, despite their large non-oil sectors relative to GCC peers, face reduced fiscal flexibility. Kuwait and Qatar have the most headroom and fiscal flexibility to withstand a protracted oil price decline",…
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