OPEC: SMALL UP
OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report:
World economic growth for 2013 and 2014 remains at 2.9% and 3.5%, respectively. The 2014 forecast for the OECD is unchanged at 2.0%, compared to 1.3% in 2013. In contrast, China's growth for 2014 has been revised down slightly to 7.6%, just below estimated 2013
growth of 7.7%. India's forecast remains at 5.6% for 2014 and 4.7% for 2013. The ongoing trend of accelerating economic growth in the OECD amid a slowdown in emerging economies has been confirmed by the latest data.
World Oil Demand
World oil demand growth for 2013 was revised up by 70 tb/d to stand at 1.05 mb/d. Upward revisions were seen in OECD Americas and Europe, reflecting stronger-thanexpected seasonal demand for 4Q13. Africa was also higher due to baseline effects. For 2014, global oil demand is seen rising by 1.14 mb/d, following an upward revision of 50 tb/d.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply is expected to increase by 1.31 mb/d in 2014, following estimated growth of 1.33 mb/d in 2013. Growth is seen mainly coming from the US, Canada, and Brazil, while Norway, UK and Mexico are seen declining. In February, OPEC crude
production, according to secondary sources, averaged 30.12 mb/d, up 259 tb/d from a month ago.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude for 2013 and 2014 was revised up by 0.1 mb/d to stand at 30.0 mb/d and 29.7 mb/d, respectively. Compared to the previous year, demand for OPEC crude is expected to decline by 0.3 mb/d in 2014, following an estimated drop of 0.5 mb/d in 2013.
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PLATTS - Asia is a growing market for Russian energy, including LNG, and a potential source of investment for the world's largest producer of resources and minerals. The Kremlin has increasingly looked to build its presence in the Asian region following the imposition of tough sanctions by the US on Russia.
REUTERS - “The Saudis are very angry at Trump. They don’t trust him any more and feel very strongly about a cut. They had no heads-up about the waivers,” said one senior source briefed on Saudi energy policies.
PLATTS - "It is obvious that we need to cooperate with Saudi Arabia, and we are going to cooperate with Saudi Arabia. OPEC plus has been very positive, and we see that in the market situation," Putin told reporters in Singapore during a briefing broadcast on Russia 24.
U.S. OFR - The U.S. Office of Financial Research (OFR) released its 2018 Annual Report to Congress, stating that risks to U.S. financial stability remain in the medium range, reflecting a mix of high, moderate, and low risks to the financial system.