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2014-07-14 19:00:00

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK 2015

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK 2015

The oil market outlook in 2015

Despite some weakness in the first half of the year, the world economy continues to recover. Global GDP growth in 2014 is now forecast at 3.1%, slightly higher than the estimated 2.9% for 2013. The US experienced a surprisingly large contraction in economic activity in the first quarter due to severe winter weather, leading to a downward revision in US GDP growth to 1.6% from 2.4% previously. However, with the US economy expected to rebound and continued large monetary stimulus in the Euro-zone and Japan, the OECD is seen growing by 1.7% in 2014 and 2.0% in 2015.

China's GDP is forecast to grow by 7.2% in 2015 from 7.4% in the current year. India and other major emerging economies are forecast to recover. This, in combination with the expected improvement in OECD economies, leads to a global GDP growth forecast of 3.4% in 2015 (Graph 1). However, a number of uncertainties remain, ranging from the consequences of monetary policies in the developed economies to the threat of deflation in the Euro-zone, as well as the risk of geopolitical tensions and potential spillovers.

World oil demand in 2015 is forecast to grow by 1.2 mb/d to average 92.3 mb/d, higher than the growth of 1.1 mb/d estimated for 2014 (Graph 2). For the first time since 2010, OECD oil demand is expected to grow, increasing by 40 tb/d, with Americas being the only OECD region exhibiting growth. Europe is expected to decline further, but at a slower pace, while Asia-Pacific oil demand will continue to contract. Non-OECD oil demand growth is expected to be around 1.2 mb/d, coming mainly from China, the Middle East, and Other Asia. In terms of products, consumption growth will be primarily driven by increased use of diesel oil and gasoline in the transportation industry, as well as to a lesser extent LPG and naphtha for petrochemical  feedstocks. However, factors that could impact oil demand growth include the pace of economic activities in major consuming nations; the strength of substitution toward natural gas and other fuels; efforts to reduce subsidies; and ongoing policies to enhance fuel efficiency, especially in the transportation sector.

 

Non-OPEC supply is expected to grow by 1.3 mb/d in 2015 to average 57.0 mb/d, lower than this year's estimated increase of 1.5 mb/d. OECD Americas is expected to see the highest growth, with contributions from the US and Canada, followed by Latin America due to the increase in Brazilian production. However, a high level of uncertainty is associated with the 2015 non-OPEC supply forecast coming from geopolitical developments; regulatory and environmental concerns; and technical challenges such as sharper-thanexpected decline rates, particularly in tight oil plays, and unplanned shutdowns. These factors could impact supply projections in either direction. OPEC NGLs and non-conventional oils are expected to increase at a faster pace in 2015, rising 0.20 mb/d to average 6.0 mb/d, following growth of 0.15 mb/d this year. 

The above forecasts suggest a demand for OPEC crude of 29.4 mb/d in 2015, a decline of 0.3 mb/d from the current year. Therefore, even if next year's world economic growth turns out to be better than expected and crude oil demand outperforms expectations, OPEC will have sufficient supply to provide to the market.

opec.org

Tags: OPEC, OIL, CRUDE, WORLD, ECONOMY, DEMAND, SUPPLY, MARKET,

Chronicle:

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK 2015
2018, November, 12, 12:00:00

TOTAL'S INVESTMENT TO ANGOLA: $16 BLN

THE LOCAL FRANCE - Angola and French oil giant Total formally launched a major new offshore oil project Saturday to aid the country's economy that plunged into crisis following oil price dips in 2014.

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK 2015
2018, November, 12, 11:55:00

CHINA, WESTINGHOUSE NUCLEAR

WNN - China's State Power Investment Corporation (SPIC) says it has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) for "global cooperation" in nuclear energy with Westinghouse Electric Company of the USA.

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK 2015
2018, November, 12, 11:50:00

SMALL BRITAIN'S NUCLEAR

WNN - Advanced Nuclear Technologies - otherwise known as small nuclear or small reactor technologies - encompass a wide range of nuclear reactor technologies under development, BEIS noted. "The common attributes that these technologies share is that they are smaller than conventional nuclear power station reactors and are designed so that much of the plant can be fabricated in a factory environment and transported to site, reducing construction risk and making them less capital-intensive," it said.

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK 2015
2018, November, 12, 11:45:00

POLAND, USA NUCLEAR

WNN - Poland and the USA have signed a Joint Declaration of Energy Security, which emphasises the expansion of their cooperation in a variety of areas, including civil nuclear energy. The document was signed in Warsaw yesterday by Polish Energy Minister Krzysztof Tchórzewski and US Secretary of Energy Rick Perry.

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