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2015-04-09 18:45:00

2016: OIL PRICES COULD BE REDUCED

2016: OIL PRICES COULD BE REDUCED

On April 2, Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) reached a framework agreement that could result in the lifting of oil-related sanctions against Iran. Lifting sanctions could substantially change the STEO forecast for oil supply, demand, and prices by allowing a significantly increased volume of Iranian barrels to enter the market. If and when sanctions are lifted, the baseline forecast for world crude oil prices in 2016 could be reduced $5-$15/barrel (bbl).

Iran is believed to hold at least 30 million barrels in storage, and EIA believes Iran has the technical capability to ramp up crude oil production by at least 700,000 bbl/day (bbl/d) by the end of 2016. The pace and magnitude at which those volumes would reach the market would depend on the terms of a final agreement.

North Sea Brent crude oil prices averaged $56/bbl in March, a decrease of $2/bbl from the February average. EIA forecasts that Brent crude oil prices will average $59/bbl in 2015 and $75/bbl in 2016, both unchanged from last month's STEO. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) prices in 2015 and 2016 are expected to average $7/bbl and $5/bbl below Brent, respectively. The current values of futures and options contracts continue to suggest very high uncertainty in the oil price outlook. Although WTI futures contracts for the broadly held December 2015 delivery traded during the five-day period ending April 2 averaged $52/bbl , the market's expectations (at the 95% confidence interval) for monthly average WTI prices in that month ranges from $32/bbl to $97/bbl.

During the 2015 April-through-September summer driving season, regular gasoline retail prices are forecast to average $2.45/gallon (gal) compared with $3.59/gal last summer. Based on EIA's gasoline price forecast, the average U.S. household is expected to spend about $700 less on gasoline in 2015 compared with 2014, as annual motor fuel expenditures are on track to fall to their lowest level in 11 years.

Natural gas working inventories were 1,461 billion cubic feet (Bcf) on March 27, which was 75% higher than a year earlier, but 12% lower than the previous five-year (2010-14) average. The winter withdrawal season typically ends in March, and April is typically the beginning of the injection season, which runs through October. EIA projects natural gas inventories will end October 2015 at 3,781 Bcf, a net injection of 2,310 Bcf. This would be the fourth-highest injection season on record, but it would be 420 Bcf lower than last year's net April-October injection.

Power generators are using more natural gas than last year, primarily because of lower natural gas prices compared with coal prices. The use of natural-gas-fired generation is projected to average 30.4% of total generation in 2015 compared with 27.4% during 2014. U.S. coal production is expected to fall by 7.1% in 2015, as natural gas displaces coal for power generation.

eia.gov

Tags: OIL, PRICES, IRAN, SANCTIONS,

Chronicle:

2016: OIL PRICES COULD BE REDUCED
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RUSSIA - EXXON: NEW PROJECTS

BLOOMBERG - Russia has begun discussions with Exxon Mobil Corp. on possible new oil and gas projects, potentially creating a dilemma as the U.S. government mulls more sanctions against the country.

2016: OIL PRICES COULD BE REDUCED
2018, October, 22, 11:50:00

IMF HAS UKRAINE FOR $3.9 BLN

IMF - The agreement reached today reflects the IMF’s commitment to continue to help Ukraine achieve stronger, sustainable, and inclusive economic growth. The new program has been developed in close coordination with the World Bank and the European Union, who have parallel operations to support Ukraine. The authorities’ steadfast and effective implementation will be critical for the program to achieve its objectives.

2016: OIL PRICES COULD BE REDUCED
2018, October, 22, 11:45:00

UKRAINE'S GAS PRICES UP 23.5%

CNBC - Ukraine announced on Friday it would raise household gas prices by nearly a quarter as Prime Minister Volodymyr Groysman warned that the country risked default if it crashed out of its International Monetary Fund aid program.

2016: OIL PRICES COULD BE REDUCED
2018, October, 22, 11:40:00

SCHLUMBERGER NET INCOME $644 MLN

Schlumberger Announces Third-Quarter 2018 Results Revenue of $8.5 billion increased 2% sequentially Pretax operating income of $1.2 billion increased 5% sequentially EPS was $0.46 Cash flow from operations was $1.8 billion Free cash flow was $1.0 billion

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