May 2015

Saudi Arabia strategy was an attempt to put pressure on high-cost producers such as the US shale drillers.

The U.S. Department of Energy has advised American companies not to allow Chinese companies to invest in U.S. liquefied natural gas export projects, the head of one such venture told Reuters on Thursday.

EIA’s Drilling Productivity Report (DPR) for April had forecast a 57,000 b/d decline during May in total crude oil production from seven U.S. regions, which together accounted for about 95% of U.S. crude oil production growth during 2011-13. This was the first time the DPR had indicated a decline in expected production since the report was first issued in October 2013. Signs of declining U.S. tight oil production amid lower crude oil prices have been a widely watched market indicator of firming oil market balances. The latest DPR, released on May 11, expects a further decline in crude oil output from the seven regions during June. Overall, EIA is now projecting U.S. oil production to average 9.2 million b/d in 2015, 40,000 b/d lower than in last month’s forecast.

Even with the decline in rigs, U.S. dry natural gas production continued to grow, reaching record highs in December 2014 of more than 74.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d), and retaining an average production in February 2015 of more than 74.2 Bcf/d, a 10% year-over-year rise from February 2014.

The late start of the overseas expansion of Chinese oil companies means that their foreign oil assets are largely located in Africa rather than in main oil producing countries in the Middle East

Despite Europe’s desire to loosen its reliance on Russian gas, the shale revolution has turned out to be a dud. Difficult geological conditions, fierce environmental opposition, cumbersome regulations and a bloody war in Ukraine have conspired to quash investors’ enthusiasm and wear down their patience. The collapse of oil prices to less than $50 a barrel in March was the final straw because the cost of much of Europe’s gas, including Russian imports, is linked to crude.

The crisis in Ukraine highlighted the need for Europe to tighten energy links among member states and cut its dependence on Russia, which supplies 27% of the bloc’s natural gas. To ensure that intergovernmental agreements with Russia don’t breach EU law, the regulator should vet their content during negotiations and not just before deals are adopted.

North Sea Brent crude oil prices averaged $60/barrel (b) in April, a $4/b increase from March and the highest monthly average of 2015. Despite increasing global inventories, several factors contributed to higher prices in April, including indications of higher global oil demand growth, expectations for declining U.S. tight oil production in the coming months, and the growing risk of unplanned supply outages in the Middle East and North Africa.

Despite slowing US output of light tight oil, global oil supply growth remained at a steep 3.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) year-on-year in April.

“We’re entering a phase when all the excess capacity will be resized to the new US world market share,” said Subash Chandra, managing director and senior equity analyst at Guggenheim Partners. “I don’t expect prices to go above $70-75/bbl. If it hits $90, US producers will start working full-out again.”