June 2015

The most significant development on the supply side in 2014 was undoubtedly the continuing revolution in US shale. The US recorded the largest increase in oil production in the world, becoming the first country ever to increase average annual production by at least 1 million barrels per day for three consecutive years.

ОАО «ЛУКОЙЛ» опубликовало консолидированную финансовую отчетность за 1 квартал 2015 г., подготовленную в соответствии с принципами бухгалтерского учета, общепринятыми в США (ОПБУ США). Чистая прибыль в 1 квартале 2015 г. составила 690 млн долл., что на 60,2% ниже уровня 1 квартала 2014 г. Показатель EBITDA (прибыль до вычета процентов, налога на прибыль, износа и амортизации) в 1 квартале 2015 г. снизился на 29,5% и составил 2 816 млн долл. Выручка от реализации составила 23 190 млн долл. (-35,0%). Снижение выручки, EBITDA и чистой прибыли произошло главным образом в результате снижения средней цены на нефть Urals за 1 квартал 2015 г. более чем на 50% по сравнению с 1 кварталом 2014 г.

EIA forecasts Brent crude oil prices will average $61/b in 2015 and $67/b in 2016.

More than $100bn of investment has been deferred or scrapped in response to the near-50 per cent plunge in crude over the past year.

The Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers on Tuesday said it expects Canadian crude output—mostly from Alberta’s oil sands—to reach 4.96 million barrels a day by 2025. That forecast is less than the previous estimate of 5.6 million barrels a day and the 6.0 million barrels a day it had forecast back in 2013.

The collapse in crude prices will pinch Canada’s long-term oil output growth by more than a million barrels a day, highlighting the lasting impact of energy companies’ capital spending cuts, said an industry group in the world’s fifth-largest producer.

China had surpassed the United States in oil imports. It’s true that overall, China’s oil composition growth has slowed, however, their new title does point to the fact that China will consume significant amounts of crude for years to come.

Europe may face deficit of gas imports of a total of 50 bln cubic meters in 2025, Gazprom Deputy Chairman Alexander Medvedev said Monday.

OAO Novatek announced Thursday that Novatek Gas & Power, a wholly owned trading subsidiary of Novatek, has signed a long-term contract with Shell International Trading Middle East for the supply of LNG from the Yamal LNG project.

Not quite as severe as in the UK, he says the trend is similar in the Netherlands, considering the decline in Groningen and the curtail in production: “Moving from a net exporter of gas to a net importer of gas.” The situation across the entire EU, according to Mr. Egan, is even worse, with the European Union importing 80% of its gas, forecast to get even worse.