January 2016

«У нас есть задача сохранения традиционных рынков в Европе. При этом увеличением поставок на Восток тоже надо заниматься, это правильный вектор, и мы, безусловно, будем его поддерживать»,

Oil prices fell by 47 percent in 2015 and are expected to decline, on an annual average, by another 27 percent in 2016. However, from their current lows, a gradual recovery in oil prices is expected over the course of the year, for several reasons. First, the sharp oil price drop in early 2016 does not appear fully warranted by fundamental drivers of oil demand and supply, and is likely to partly reverse. Second, high-cost oil producers are expected to sustain persistent losses and increasingly make production cuts that are likely to outweigh any additional capacity coming to the market. Third, demand is expected to strengthen somewhat with a modest pickup in global growth.

“Everything is possible in theory. It was possible a year ago, a month ago. Nothing new has happened. This frenzy is idiotic. It stems from the fact that people can’t read.”

“Co-ordination between Russia and Opec has been discussed in the past and has always come to nothing, and it would be a shock if any different outcome occurred this time,” says James Henderson at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.

“While we view this outcome as unlikely, a 5% production cut by just Saudi Arabia and Russia would be sufficient to bring the market close to balance,” said Jason Gammel, oil analyst at Jefferies. “A balanced market…would set the stage for oil price recovery.”

A desire to capitalise on distressed situations, grow international market share and acquire new technology will drive a surge in M&A activity in the global oilfield services sector during 2016.

The Dow Jones industrial average climbed 125.18 points, or 0.8 percent, to 16,069.64. The Standard & Poor’s 500 index picked up 10.41 points, or 0.6 percent, to 1,893.36. The Nasdaq composite index rose 38.51 points, or 0.9 percent, to 4,506.68. U.S. crude rose 92 cents, or 2.8 percent, to $33.22 a barrel in New York. Brent crude, a benchmark for international oils, gained 79 cents, or 2.4 percent, to $33.89.

Total petroleum deliveries, a measure of consumer demand, in December rose by 1.1 percent from December 2014 to average nearly 19.7 million barrels per day, according to API’s Monthly Statistical Report for December 2015. These were the highest December deliveries in five years.

U.S. Rig Count is down 18 rigs from last week to 619, with oil rigs down 12 to 498, and gas rigs down 6 to 121.

In addition to a £250m UK City Deal signed earlier in the day, the PM has set out an action plan of further measures to help build a bridge to the future for the industry, which is vital for our energy security and has been at the heart of the UK economy for decades, generating jobs, skills and growth.