May 2016

Changes to the data in this month’s confirm the direction of travel of the oil market towards balance. The net result of our changes to demand and supply data is that we expect to see global oil stocks increase by 1.3 million b/d in the first half of 2016 followed by a dramatic reduction in the second half of 2016 to 200,000 b/d.

Saudi Arabia is going through one of the most difficult periods in its modern history. Oil prices have dropped from a July 2014 high of $115 per barrel to less than $30 per barrel in January this year. The country is surrounded by failed states: Iraq, Libya, Yemen, Syria and, arguably, Lebanon. It has a demographic bulge of ambitious, but exceedingly frustrated, young men and women whose expectations differ dramatically from those of their parents. And it faces an emboldened Iran eager to interfere in the affairs of Arab countries, and with the financial wherewithal to do so, via proxy armed militia.

France’s energy and environment minister Segolene Royal wants to find a “legal way” to prevent the import of non-conventional US LNG.

U.S. Rig Count is down 9 rigs from last week to 406, with oil rigs down 10 to 318, gas rigs up 1 to 87, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 1. Canadian Rig Count is up 7 rigs from last week to 43, with oil rigs up 5 to 16, gas rigs up 2 to 26, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 1.

In light of the increasing demand for Russian energy products in Europe, the meeting participants stressed the importance of the Nord Stream 2 project. It was noted that the new gas transmission pipeline would not only improve the reliability of gas deliveries but also facilitate the development of the European gas market.

Reform of sprawling state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to improve efficiency is a priority for China's leaders as growth slows in the world's second biggest economy, and was a key plank of the country's latest five-year plan agreed in 2015.

The United States is deeply concerned about the Nord Stream-2 gas pipeline project as a threat to national security, a senior U.S. energy envoy said on Friday, after the issue was raised at talks in Washington this week.

Brent crude oil prices are forecast to average $41/b in 2016 and $51/b in 2017.

Rising incomes in China, India, and other emerging Asia economies are a key driver of the global energy outlook. Developing Asia accounts for more than half of the projected increase in global energy use through 2040. This increase will have a profound effect on the development of world energy markets. Clean energy technologies play an important role in the outlook, with renewables expected to be the fastest-growing energy source.

Japan is aiming to become an international LNG trading hub by the early 2020s, opening access to receiving terminals and beefing up large-scale storage facilities.