July 2016

Global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels is estimated to have grown by 1.4 million b/d in 2015. EIA expects global consumption of petroleum and other liquid fuels to increase by 1.4 million b/d in 2016 and by 1.5 million b/d in 2017, mostly driven by growth in countries outside of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). Non-OECD consumption growth was an estimated 1.0 million b/d in 2015, and it is expected to be 1.3 million b/d in 2016 and 1.5 million b/d in 2017.

Oil prices have recovered more than 70 percent from the 12-year low reached earlier this year as OPEC’s strategy to pressure rivals with lower prices slowly succeeds in eliminating a surplus. Output in the U.S. has retreated to a two-year low as the boom in shale oil production faltered, while Saudi Arabia told OPEC it raised output last month close to a record.

The light, sweet crude oil price for August delivery fell moderately on the New York market July 11 to settle under $45/bbl. The Brent crude oil price for September delivery fell about 50¢ on the London market to settle at $46.25/bbl.

Iran exports about 2 million barrels of its daily output of 3.8 million, said Mohsen Ghamsari, NIOC’s director of international affairs. The country has regained about 80 percent of the market share it held before the U.S. and European Union tightened sanctions on its oil industry in 2012, he said. Sanctions were eased in January, and Iran plans to double crude exports.

The World Bank is downgrading its 2016 global growth forecast to 2.4 percent from the 2.9 percent pace projected in January. The move is due to sluggish growth in advanced economies, stubbornly low commodity prices, weak global trade, and diminishing capital flows.

The current oil price environment has had a negative impact on oil investments, hurt energy efficiency and boosted the share of oil produced in the Middle East.

Two projects worth $45 billion announced this month show the world’s largest oil companies are regaining the confidence to make big investments, emboldened by rising crude prices and low costs that promise to trigger more expansion ahead.

Economic activity is expected to decelerate in 2016. Higher disposable income and employment will boost private consumption, but growth will be affected by the slow start of investment projects financed by EU funds. As base effects from the oil price shock fade and domestic demand pressures build-up, inflation is expected to reach the 2-percent target in mid-2017. Over the medium-term, output growth is set to stabilize at around slightly above 2 percent in line with economy’s potential.

The worldwide rig count for June 2016 was 1,407, up 2 from the 1,405 counted in May 2016, and down 729 from the 2,136 counted in June 2015.

Estimated U.S. oil well completions decreased by 69 percent in the second quarter of 2016 compared to year-ago levels, according to API's 2016 Quarterly Well Completion Report, Second Quarter.