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2016-09-19 18:30:00

HIGH RISK FOREVER

HIGH RISK FOREVER

BOE wrote, oil demand should start accelerating by year's end, and outside of Saudi Arabia the prospect for production growth among OPEC members looks bleak. 

Oil prices have swung up and down this month following an August rally spurred by speculation that Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries would move to stabilize the market. The countries have fueled the volatility in recent weeks, as they talked of freezing output even while boosting production to new highs.

It predicted a large output contraction down the road with decline rates accelerating at these low prices. While assuming healthy OPEC growth going forward, conservative supply and demand balance continues to point towards hefty stock draws during the second half of the year.

PATIENTLY WAITING

The market remains bullish, onshore visible inventories will draw and oil prices will move higher.

The Commodities Master Fund gained 38 percent in 2014, when oil prices began a two-year slide. In August, the fund gained 4.2 percent, bringing annual returns to 8.3 percent, according to the letter. The hedge fund industry as a whole gained 1 percent in August and is up 2.2 percent this year, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Investment in new oil supplies is drying up,  thanks to low prices and climate-change worries that are fueling a push toward renewable energy.

It seen 2017-2020 as still having the potential for much higher prices. After 2020, there is a high risk that electric vehicle penetration will change the oil market forever.

-----

Earlier: 

OIL PRICES: ABOVE $46 AGAIN 

UNSTABLE OIL PRICES 

GROWTH IS SLOWING 

ЦЕНА РУССКОЙ НЕФТИ: $40 

MARKET IS OWERSUPPLIED

 

 

Tags: OIL, PRICES, MARKET

Chronicle:

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