OIL PRICE: ABOVE $56 AGAIN

REUTERS, BLOOMBERG, OILPRICE -  Brent crude futures LCOc1, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $57.45 at 0639 GMT, up 22 cents, or 0.4 percent from their last close. 

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $51.54 per barrel, up 25 cents, or 0.5 percent. 

The higher prices came after a more than 1 percent fall in prices the previous day. 

This was put down to profit-taking following four days of straight gains, but also to a sudden market slump which spooked traders after the veteran but outgoing governor of China's central bank warned of a "Minsky moment", a reference to excessive optimism about economic growth fueled by vast debt and speculative investment. 

"I think he is trying to warn people that we can't keep running...at that rate because it implies an ongoing increase in China's debt-to-GDP ratio and sooner or later that must slow down," said Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital in Sydney. 

TIGHTENING MARKET 

Much of that concern had dissipated by Friday, however, and analysts said there were indicators of a tightening oil supply and demand fundamentals. 

"Oil market has moved into modest under-supply and we expect this will persist at least through the end of the year," U.S. investment bank Jefferies said. 

U.S. commercial crude oil stocks have dropped 15 percent from their March records, to 456.5 million barrels, below levels seen last year. 

Part of this drawdown has been due to rising exports as a result of the steep discount of WTI crude to Brent, which makes it attractive for American producers to export their oil.  

Additionally, crude futures price curves are in backwardation, which makes it attractive to sell produced oil immediately rather than store it for later dispatch. 

RBC Capital Markets said, "a strong indicator that global inventories are being run down will be when the market starts relying on U.S. exports to fill deficits." 

That moment may have arrived. 

Shipping data in Thomson Reuters Eikon shows that overseas U.S. crude oil shipments have soared from virtually zero before the government loosened export restrictions in late 2015 to around 2.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in October. 

"Physical bottlenecks are unlikely to kick in until waterborne (U.S.) exports approach 3.2 million bpd," RBC Capital Markets said. 

Exports have been boosted since a production cut led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has been in place since January this year, and which OPEC wants to expend beyond its current expiry date at the end of March 2018. 

"Our expectation is that OPEC (and partners including Russia) will extend production cuts through the end of 2018," Jefferies bank said.

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Earlier:

October, 13, 13:05:00 OIL PRICE: ABOVE $57 YET U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $51.01 per barrel at 0647 GMT, up 41 cents, or 0.8 percent, from its last settlement. Brent was at $56.58, up 33 cents, or 0.6 percent.

October, 13, 13:00:00 PRICES: OIL $52-54; GAS $3.03-3.19 EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average $52/b in 2017 and $54/b in 2018, which is $1/b higher in 2017 and $2/b higher in 2018 compared with last month's forecast. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) average crude oil prices are forecast to be $3.50/b lower than Brent prices in 2018.

October, 13, 12:55:00 2018 OIL MARKET FORECAST Falling global crude oil stockpiles in 2017 will help put the market “roughly” into balance in 2018, but an increase in prices could be limited, especially if the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries doesn’t stick to its agreement to curb output, the International Energy Agency said.

October, 11, 13:00:00 OIL PRICE: NOT BELOW $56 Brent crude futures, the international benchmark for oil prices, were trading at $56.75 per barrel at 0649 GMT, up 14 cents, or 0.25 percent, from their last close. Brent also rose 2 percent the previous day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $51.09 a barrel, up 17 cents, or 0.33 percent, from their last settlement. Prices rose 2 percent the day before to back above $50 a barrel.

October, 11, 12:50:00 OIL PRICES 2020: $50 - $60 Based on a “lower-for-longer” base-case scenario, global oil prices will remain in the $50-60/bbl range until late 2020, due to increasing supply that breaks even at $50/bbl, according to to the most recent global oil supply and demand outlook from McKinsey Energy Insights (MEI).

October, 9, 21:55:00 OIL PRICE: NOT BELOW $55 Global benchmark Brent crude LCOc1 was down 2 cents at $55.60 a barrel at 11:31 a.m. EDT (1531 GMT). Earlier in the session it touched a three-week low of $55.06. It ended last week 3.3 percent lower, its biggest weekly loss since June 2017. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were trading at $49.46, up 17 cents. They came close to a four-week low when they fell to $49.13 earlier in the session. WTI’s losses last week came to 4.6 percent.

October, 6, 13:00:00 OIL PRICE: ABOVE $56 YET Global benchmark Brent crude futures were up 7 cents at $57.07 a barrel at 0848 GMT. Week on week, the contract was set for a near 1 percent loss, snapping a five-week winning streak that was the longest since June 2016. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was at $50.59, down 20 cents. It was set to close the week down more than 2 percent, the biggest weekly loss in three months.