LIBYAN OIL PRODUCTION 1 MBD

OGJ - Wood Mackenzie Ltd. analysts believe Libya's oil production might have reached near-term limits with only gradual future growth. The possibility of longer-term political normalization and a reduction in the nation's political conflicts depends on Libya maintaining oil production.

Libya's oil production increased steeply to the current level of 850,000 b/d from a low point in August 2016 of below 300,000 b/d. Production surpassed 1 million b/d in July.

WoodMac said export capacity remains constrained by damage to the key ports of As Sidrah and Ras Lanuf, limiting production to a maximum of 1.25 million b/d, which Libya's National Oil Corp. has announced as its yearend target.

"Reaching this would be quite an achievement, given ongoing challenges, including international oil companies' reluctance to recommit capital and expertise, a national oil company starved of funding—and, not least, the propensity for violence to flare up and armed groups to hinder oil output," WoodMac said in an Oct. 20 note.

American and Canadian oil companies continue to view Libya with trepidation, and some may seek to mitigate exposure there, analysts said. But many European companies consider the risks manageable and envision a gradual reentry into projects.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries exempted Libya from production-cut targets, which WoodMac calls "a tacit acknowledgement of the upside limitations to the country's production recovery. We expect that it will be well into next decade before production is restored to prewar levels."

WoodMac believes Libya would be successful if it maintains stable production of 1 million b/d, adding that incremental interim gains might help avert a deepening of the country's conflicts.

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Earlier:

2017, August, 31, 12:20:00 LIBYAN OIL DOWN 360 TBD Three Libyan oilfields have gone offline and output has declined by 360,000 bopd after militia violence, the country’s NOC announced.

2017, July, 28, 09:55:00 LIBYA'S OIL UP TO 1.069 MBD Libya's oil production is 1.069 million b/d, and the country hopes to grow its output to as much as 1.25 million b/d this year, a source close to production said Monday.

2017, January, 26, 18:45:00 LIBYA NEEDS $100 BLN Libya froze all new foreign investment in 2011 after the civil war that toppled strongman Moammar Gadhafi. International oil companies such as Total SA of France and ConocoPhillips have long had operations in Libya, and Eni SpA of Italy has found ways to keep pumping even as clashes among warring militias and Islamic State damaged the country’s oil infrastructure.

2016, November, 28, 18:45:00 LIBYA WON'T CUT "Libya is in such a dangerous economic situation, there is no way it can participate in OPEC production cuts for the foreseeable future," NOC Chairman Mustafa Sanalla told delegates at the Arab-Austrian Economic Forum in Vienna on Friday, according to an NOC statement.

2016, September, 19, 18:40:00 LIBYA'S OIL PRODUCTION: 300 TBD Oil traders have closely watched the situation in Libya, where production now stands at about 300,000 barrels a day—a level that Libyan officials say they could quickly ramp up again if oil ports remained open and secure for an extended period.

2016, August, 9, 18:50:00 LIBYA HAS STARTED Libya is seeking to boost crude production after rival leaders agreed last month to unify the state National Oil Corp. under a single management. The bulk of the country’s oil infrastructure is either damaged or straddles disputed territory as armed factions fought for control of producing fields.

2014, July, 7, 17:40:00 LIBYA: KEY TERMINALS REOPENS Key Libyan oil terminals set to reopen