OPEC OIL EXPECTATIONS

BLOOMBERG - With tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran ratcheting up and OPEC about to announce its plans for global crude supply, investors would be forgiven for anticipating a few gyrations in oil prices. The opposite has happened: the market is the calmest it's been for almost nine months.

Implied volatility, a gauge of expected price moves, dropped to about 22 percent on Friday for New York-traded crude. That was the lowest level since early March and close to a three-year low. Other gauges of turbulence have also traded at multi-year lows since the start of October, despite the escalating tensions and meetings this week in Vienna, where OPEC and allied oil-producer states will discuss the extension of supply curbs that propped up the market.

The problem for those hedge funds that thrive off sharp intraday price moves is that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries already sign-posted its next move: the producer group and Russia, the key non-member partner to the curbs deal, are said to have agreed a framework to extend cuts to the end of next year. The options market is pricing in daily price moves of less than 90 cents a barrel for the nearest contract, a historically low level, said Thibaut Remoundos, founder of London-based Commodities Trading Corporation Ltd.

"A priced-in move of under 90 cents a barrel reflects the expectation that Thursday will be not be a shocker and that they will communicate Central Bank-style, containing the price," he said, referring to the day of OPEC's main meeting. A "real pop" would arise if OPEC's plans disappointed the market and Commodity Trading Advisers, who often buy or sell crude futures based on technical indicators, reversed their "extreme" bullish positions, he added.

Long Trades

Funds have been snapping up bullish bets on crude in recent weeks. There were more than a billion barrels of outright long positions in the Brent and WTI markets combined last week, as expectations grew that OPEC will succeed in rebalancing the market.

There's always the risk that the outcome of Thursday's meeting fails to live up to the market's expectations, sending prices down. Volatility offers "decent value" into the OPEC meeting as current levels "do not yet reflect a high risk premium for Thursday," Goldman Sachs Group Inc. said in a report on Monday, when WTI volatility nudged higher to just over 23 percent.

Any disappointments could spark a sharp increase in volatility, analysts at BNP Paribas SA and JPMorgan Chase & Co. wrote last week.

OPEC's meeting "could potentially trigger a good sized sell-off in the flat price and a sharp rally in volatility" should the group's decisions underwhelm the market, JPMorgan analysts including John Normand said.

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Earlier:

November, 27, 20:20:00 OIL PRICE: ABOVE $63 ANEW BLOOMBERG - West Texas Intermediate for January delivery was at $58.51 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 44 cents, at 10:22 a.m. London time. Total volume traded was about 24 percent above the 100-day average. Prices gained 93 cents to $58.95 on Friday, capping a 4.2 percent weekly advance. Brent for January settlement fell 21 cents to $63.65 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, after rising 1.8 percent last week. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $5.11 to WTI.

November, 27, 20:15:00 РОССИЯ ПОДДЕРЖИВАЕТ СОКРАЩЕНИЕ МИНЭНЕРГО РОССИИ - «Мы видим, что с рынка ушло примерно 50% излишком запасов нефти, мы видим, что цена сбалансировалась и вышла на достаточно приемлемый уровень в районе 60 и выше долларов за баррель марки Brent, инвестиции начали уже в 17-м году расти, а до этого они 15-16-й год падали. Тем не менее, мы не достигли еще до конца цели по балансировке рынка, и сегодня практически все выступают за то, что необходимо продлить сделку дополнительно для того, чтобы достичь окончательных целей. В принципе, Россия тоже поддерживает такие предложения, рассматриваются разные варианты».

November, 27, 20:05:00 OIL SUPPLY & DEMAND BLOOMBERG - Global crude inventories are declining and supply and demand are in balance, according to the head of Saudi Aramco, while the United Arab Emirates energy minister said U.S. shale oil doesn’t threaten OPEC’s efforts to support the market.

November, 24, 09:45:00 OIL PRICE: ABOVE $63 TOO BLOOMBERG - WTI for January delivery was at $58.43 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 1:25 p.m. in Singapore, up 41 cents. The contract added $1.19 to $58.02 on Wednesday. There was no settlement Thursday because of the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. and all transactions will be booked Friday. Brent for January settlement lost 14 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $63.41 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. Prices rose 23 cents to $63.55 on Thursday. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $4.98 to WTI.

November, 24, 09:20:00 OPEC WILL REDUCE REUTERS - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, non-member Russia and nine other producers agreed to curb oil output by about 1.8 million barrels per day until March 2018. They are expected to extend the deal at a Nov. 30 meeting in Vienna.

November, 22, 11:35:00 OIL PRICE: ABOVE $63 AGAIN BLOOMBERG - West Texas Intermediate for January delivery gained as much as 97 cents to $57.80 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $57.72 at 1 p.m. in Hong Kong. The contract added 41 cents to $56.83 on Tuesday. Brent for January settlement added 44 cents, or 0.7 percent, to $63.01 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange after climbing 0.6 percent on Tuesday. The global benchmark traded at a premium of $5.31 to WTI.

November, 20, 09:35:00 OIL PRICE: ABOVE $62 YET REUTERS - Brent crude futures LCOc1, the international benchmark for oil prices, were at $62.56 per barrel at 0439 GMT, down 16 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were at $56.59 a barrel, up 4 cents, or 0.1 percent, from their last settlement.