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2017-12-04 23:10:00



REUTERS - Ministers from OPEC and their allies have agreed to extend their production pact all the way to the end of 2018 but with a review in June that will take into account market conditions and progress toward rebalancing.

The outcome represents a successful compromise between de facto OPEC leader Saudi Arabia (which wanted to announce an extension throughout 2018) and non-OPEC heavyweight Russia (which wanted to avoid giving such a long commitment).

The decision was in line with traders' expectations and there has been little change in either outright crude prices or calendar spreads since the decision was announced on Thursday.

As a practical matter, it makes little difference whether the decision is described as a nine-month extension from the end of March, when the current cuts were scheduled to expire; or a three-month extension from March to June with the option of extending them until December 2018.

The compromise allows ministers to signal a resolve to do whatever it takes to rebalance the market (a Saudi priority) while preserving flexibility to adapt to changing market conditions (a Russian one).

Critically, it recognizes the oil market has already made significant progress toward rebalancing but also that there is uncertainty about how quickly the process will be completed.

Saudi Arabia's oil minister Khalid Al-Falih said on Thursday the excess of OECD oil stocks over the five-year average had already shrunk from 280 million barrels in May to just 140 million in October.

Crude oil in floating storage has fallen by 50 million barrels since June, and products stocks are already down to their five-year average.

Both Brent and WTI have flipped from contango into backwardation for the first time since 2014, Falih noted, indicating the market's move toward a more balanced condition.

"Market stability has improved and the sentiment is generally upbeat. The rebalancing trend has accelerated and inventories are generally on a declining trend," Falih concluded.

Rebalancing is now more than half-way completed, he said, but the market is moving toward the seasonally weak, low-demand period through the second quarter of 2018.

For Saudi Arabia, therefore, the emphasis was on maintaining production discipline to get the job finished and avoid a renewed slump in oil prices. "We must stay the course," Falih urged his colleagues.

Russia, however, has begun to worry about what comes next once rebalancing has been achieved.

Brent prices are already trading well near $64 per barrel, the average for the whole of the last cycle from 1998 to 2016. In real terms, the average Brent price in 2017 will be in line with the median since 1973.

The Brent spread is now well into the upper half of its full cycle range, and the backwardation is firmly established, which points to a market that is no longer significantly oversupplied.

If OECD stocks were to decline to the five-year average, the market would almost certainly feel uncomfortably tight, given the enormous growth in oil consumption since 2012.

Oil prices and calendar spreads would rise further, and the shift could be very rapid. Rising prices would encourage a sharp increase in drilling and production from the U.S. shale sector.

As Falih acknowledged, the pace of rebalancing has accelerated, which is normal cyclical behavior, because supply-demand-stocks-prices dynamics in the oil market are highly non-linear.

If OPEC waits before adjusting production until stocks have fallen close to the five-year average and the market has fully rebalanced, it will risk a spike in both prices and spreads to the upside.

Prices and spreads overshot following both the previous OPEC-led efforts at oil market rebalancing after the slumps of 1998/99 and 2008/09.

For Saudi Arabia, which needs higher oil revenues to fund its ambitious transformation program, and higher prices to secure a favorable price for the Aramco share listing, overshooting might not be a problem.

But Russia needs the extra revenue less and is more worried about losing market share in Europe and Asia to competition from rising U.S. shale oil exports.

The compromise allows both sides to claim a measure of victory, with Saudi Arabia getting a nine-month extension and Russia obtaining an explicit commitment to review after three months.

The bottom line is that OPEC and its allies are committed to maintaining current production levels through the end of June 2018.

The pact may be extended until the end of 2018, with or without modifications, depending on the level of stocks and prices when the review is conducted in the middle of next year.



December, 2, 18:54:00


OPEC - In agreeing to this decision, Member Countries confirmed their continued focus on a stable and balanced oil market, in the interests of both producers and consumers. Member Countries remain committed to being dependable and reliable suppliers of crude and products to global markets.


December, 1, 13:00:00


МИНЭНЕРГО РОССИИ - «Мы успешно и конструктивно провели переговоры по продлению сделки. Мы удовлетворены результатами балансировки рынка, сокращением излишков нефти и нефтепродуктов, снижением волатильности цен, а также возврату инвестиционной активности в отрасли. В тоже время мы также единодушно подтвердили то, что мы находимся лишь в середине пути, и для того, чтобы достичь окончательной цели по балансировке рынка, нам нужно продолжить совместные усилия».


December, 1, 12:55:00


PLATTS - Saudi Arabia reasserted its leadership of the oil market Thursday after brokering its desired extension of output cuts with OPEC and non-OPEC partners through to the end of 2018. The deal -- agreed after nearly nine hours of negotiations in Vienna -- kept its new ally Russia onside and prevented a sell-off that many analysts had feared.


December, 1, 12:50:00


BLOOMBERG - OPEC and its allies outside the group agreed to maintain oil production cuts until the end of 2018, extending their campaign to wrest back control of the global market from America’s shale industry.


November, 29, 10:00:00


BLOOMBERG - Implied volatility, a gauge of expected price moves, dropped to about 22 percent on Friday for New York-traded crude. That was the lowest level since early March and close to a three-year low. Other gauges of turbulence have also traded at multi-year lows since the start of October, despite the escalating tensions and meetings this week in Vienna, where OPEC and allied oil-producer states will discuss the extension of supply curbs that propped up the market.


November, 27, 20:15:00


МИНЭНЕРГО РОССИИ - «Мы видим, что с рынка ушло примерно 50% излишком запасов нефти, мы видим, что цена сбалансировалась и вышла на достаточно приемлемый уровень в районе 60 и выше долларов за баррель марки Brent, инвестиции начали уже в 17-м году расти, а до этого они 15-16-й год падали. Тем не менее, мы не достигли еще до конца цели по балансировке рынка, и сегодня практически все выступают за то, что необходимо продлить сделку дополнительно для того, чтобы достичь окончательных целей. В принципе, Россия тоже поддерживает такие предложения, рассматриваются разные варианты».


November, 24, 09:20:00


REUTERS - The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, non-member Russia and nine other producers agreed to curb oil output by about 1.8 million barrels per day until March 2018. They are expected to extend the deal at a Nov. 30 meeting in Vienna.





2018, August, 17, 11:30:00


U.S. FRB - Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in July after rising at an average pace of 0.5 percent over the previous five months. Manufacturing production increased 0.3 percent, the output of utilities moved down 0.5 percent, and, after posting five consecutive months of growth, the index for mining declined 0.3 percent. At 108.0 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.2 percent higher in July than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was unchanged in July at 78.1 percent, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.

2018, August, 17, 11:25:00


NPD - Preliminary production figures for July 2018 show an average daily production of 1 911 000 barrels of oil, NGL and condensate, which is an increase of 64 000 barrels per day compared to June.

2018, August, 17, 11:20:00


GAZPROM NEFT - For the first six months of 2018 Gazprom Neft achieved revenue** growth of 24.4% year-on-year, at one trillion, 137.7 billion rubles (RUB1,137,700,000,000). The Company achieved a 49.8% year-on-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, to RUB368.2 billion. This performance reflected positive market conditions for oil and oil products, production growth at the Company’s new projects, and effective management initiatives. Net profit attributable to Gazprom Neft PJSC shareholders grew 49.6% year on year, to RUB166.4 billion. Growth in the Company’s operating cash flow, as well as the completion of key infrastructure investments at new upstream projects, delivered positive free cash flow of RUB47.5 billion for 1H 2018.

2018, August, 15, 11:10:00


REUTERS - Front-month Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $72.34 per barrel at 0648 GMT, down by 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were down 23 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $66.81 per barrel.

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