Здравствуйте. Вся информация этого сайта бесплатна. Вы можете сделать пожертвование и поддержать наше развитие. Спасибо.

Hello. All information of this site is free of charge. You can make a donation and support our development. Thank you.

2017-05-04 18:40:00

OPEC OIL EXPORTS

OPEC OIL EXPORTS

FTAs oil prices languish near $50 a barrel, energy traders are starting to point the finger at one previously overlooked culprit: exports.

For all Opec's self-imposed production restraint the group's exports have fallen by less than their output cuts might imply.

Morgan Stanley analysts say that while Opec has hit its target by cutting as much as 1.4m barrels a day of output to try and support the market, shipping data suggests the group's exports have declined by less than 1m b/d since the start of the year.

Consultancy Energy Aspects echo this view, arguing the discrepancy between the group's production and exports risked being seen as "disingenuous" by a market that has been rapidly "losing faith" in the group.

Analysts at Energy Aspects say tanker tracking data suggests Opec's exports have fallen by as little as 800,000 b/d so far in 2017 as some members have supplanted oil lost to production cutbacks with crude from storage, or have freed up barrels for export as they carry out maintenance at domestic refineries.

The relatively high export levels are likely to come under scrutiny when Opec ministers meet on May 25, when they will decide whether to extend the production deal for another six months.

While a continuation of the deal appears close to being rubber-stamped, with Opec ministers and non-Opec participants such as Russia largely agreeing more needs to be done to tighten the market, the export levels may raise tensions between a group that has fought hard to maintain cohesiveness during a near three-year old oil slump.

One Gulf Opec delegate said he remained confident the rebalancing the cartel is trying to achieve is "under way" but admitted "the impact of output cuts on exports will be lagged behind".

Paul Horsnell, analyst at Standard Chartered, said it was important not to read too much into the discrepancy as there was always a "natural variation" between production and export levels.

"A barrel cut of production does not necessarily equate to a barrel immediately out of exports," Mr Horsnell said, pointing to variations in domestic demand. "Opec cuts play out over quarters while market sentiment plays out over days and weeks."

On Tuesday Brent crude oil closed at $50.46 a barrel, its lowest level since the day before Opec agreed its production curbs in late November. Prices rebounded slightly on Wednesday to near $51 a barrel after data showed US crude stockpiles fell for a fourth straight week, raising hopes the cuts are finally starting to register.

Analysts and traders say they still expect global oil inventories to accelerate their decline in the second half of this year, despite a rebound in US crude production. Export levels from Opec may also tail off as refineries return from maintenance.

Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats, who produced the export report, said early indications were that loadings for exports had slowed in April, which may suggest sales from existing inventories were being reduced.

"Imports and arrivals should start to reflect the recent cuts in loadings," Mr Rats said. "Our expectation remains that the balance of 2017 will see meaningful stock draws."

-----

Earlier: 

OIL PRICES FORECAST: $55 - $60 

OIL CONSENSUS 

OPEC OIL DECISION 

OPEC: HISTORIC DECISIONS 

OPEC AND NON-OPEC COOPERATION

 

 

Tags: OPEC, OIL, EXPORT
OPEC OIL EXPORTS October, 19, 11:30:00

ТРАГЕДИЯ В КЕРЧИ

OPEC OIL EXPORTS October, 19, 11:25:00

OIL PRICE: NOT ABOVE $80

OPEC OIL EXPORTS October, 19, 11:20:00

GAS FOR CHINA: THE BIGGEST

OPEC OIL EXPORTS October, 19, 11:15:00

RUSSIAN LNG FOR GERMANY

OPEC OIL EXPORTS October, 19, 11:10:00

RUSSIAN YAMAL LNG

OPEC OIL EXPORTS October, 19, 11:05:00

EXXON'S LNG FOR CHINA

All Publications »

Chronicle:

OPEC OIL EXPORTS
2018, October, 19, 11:00:00

NORWAY'S GAS FOR BRITAIN

PLATTS - Norwegian natural gas exports to the UK jumped to their highest in six months Wednesday as consistently high UK prices incentivized flows normally only reserved for wintry periods.

OPEC OIL EXPORTS
2018, October, 19, 10:55:00

UZBEKISTAN'S NUCLEAR: $11 BLN

AZERNEWS - The estimated cost of construction of nuclear power plant of Russian design in Uzbekistan will be about $ 11 billion, the launch of the first power unit has been planned for 2028, the Aide to the President of the Russian Federation Yury Ushakov said.

OPEC OIL EXPORTS
2018, October, 19, 10:50:00

IRANIAN GAS: 1 BLN CMD

SHANA - Managing Director of the Iranian Gas Engineering and Development Company (IGEDC) Hassan Montazer Torbati said the supply of one billion cubic meters per day of natural gas by National Iranian Gas Company (NIGC) was one of the goals of the company by 2021.

OPEC OIL EXPORTS
2018, October, 19, 10:45:00

CHINA - BELGIUM NUCLEAR

WNN - China and Belgium have signed a framework agreement on cooperation in the peaceful use of nuclear energy. The agreement was one of several accords signed in Brussels yesterday during a meeting between Chinese Premier Li Keqiang and Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel.

All Publications »