May 2017

OPEC members and a Russia-led group of 11 non-OPEC countries on May 25th agreed to prolong production cuts for a further period of nine months, beginning from the 1st of July, in a bid to stabilise oil prices and reduce oil inventories. The recent deal was an extension of the previous agreement that was reached between the two sides last December, taking effect from 1st of January this year, to reduce production by 1.8mn barrels per day (bpd) – since when oil prices have remained relatively stable at around the $50/barrel mark.

While most big oil companies foresee a day when the world will need less crude, timing when that peak in oil demand will materialize is one of the hottest flashpoints for controversy within the industry. It’s tough to predict because changes to oil demand will hinge on future disruptive technologies, such as batteries in electric cars that will allow drivers to travel for hundreds of miles on a single charge.

Net foreign assets at the central bank shrank by $8.5 billion from the previous month to $492.9 billion in April, reaching their lowest level since 2011, central bank figures showed on Sunday. They fell 13.9 percent from a year earlier.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.2 percent in the first quarter of 2017 , according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.1 percent.

U.S. Rig Count is up 504 rigs from last year's count of 404, with oil rigs up 406, gas rigs up 98, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged. Canadian Rig Count is up 50 rigs from last year's count of 43, with oil rigs up 26, gas rigs up 25, and miscellaneous rigs down 1 to 0.

OPEC Member Countries and non-OPEC parties, Azerbaijan, Kingdom of Bahrain, Brunei Darussalam, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Sultanate of Oman, the Russian Federation, Republic of Sudan, and the Republic of South Sudan, taking into account the decision reached by OPEC at the 172nd Meeting of the Conference, recognized the need for continuing cooperation among oil exporting countries in order to achieve a lasting stability in the oil market.

No one envies the Saudi Arabians now. Yes, the Brent price has rebounded from its of 2015-16 lows to stabilise over $50. At the Opec meeting in Vienna this week the delegates agreed to extend production curbs for another nine months.

Ministers from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies meet in Vienna to decide whether to prolong their agreement. Major producers including Saudi Arabia, Russia and Iraq favor an extension for nine months and, while other options will be discussed, consensus is building around an agreement that runs through next March.

A balanced global crude oil market likely will remain elusive into 2018 because so many underlying dynamics have changed in the last 10 years. The outlook is worse for LNG because markets are saturated, prices are depressed, and economics are unfavorable.

The July light, sweet crude contract on NYMEX climbed 34¢ on May 23 to close at $51.47/bbl. The August contract rose 32¢ to settle at $51.72/bbl. The natural gas price for June fell 11¢ to a rounded $3.22/MMbtu. The Henry Hub cash gas price was $3.20/MMbtu, down 1¢. The Brent crude contract for July on London’s ICE gained 28¢ to $54.15/bbl. The August contract was up 30¢ to $54.41/bbl. The June gas oil contract held unchanged at $479/tonne. OPEC’s basket of crudes on May 23 settled at $51.34/bbl, down 20¢.