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2017-08-16 09:30:00

OPEC: GLOBAL OIL DEMAND WILL UP TO 97.8 MBD

OPEC: GLOBAL OIL DEMAND WILL UP TO 97.8 MBD

PLATTSDespite a forecast of global oil consumption reaching a record high next year, OPEC expects demand for its crude to stay stable at 32.42 million b/d in 2018, the producer group's statistical arm said Thursday.

The latest monthly market report revised down its non-OPEC supply growth forecast for both this year and next, even as it produced a 2017 high of 32.87 million b/d in July.

In 2018, it expects non-OPEC oil supply to grow by 1.1 million b/d over the current year to average 58.87 million b/d, "which is slightly less than the expected increase in global demand in 2018."

OPEC said world oil demand in 2018 will grow 1.28 million b/d from 2017 levels, meaning that total oil consumption is expected to hit a new record high of 97.8 million b/d in 2018.

But despite record-high demand seen next year, OPEC's analysis arm projected global demand for its crude to be lower than its July production.

In 2018, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 32.42 million b/d, the same level as in 2017.

REVISES DOWN 2017, 2018 NON-OPEC SUPPLY GROWTH

OPEC revised down its non-OPEC growth forecast for 2017 following weak output in the US and Canada in Q2, 2017 due to lower production in the Gulf of Mexico "following seasonal maintenance and predominantly lower-than-expected tight crude produced in shale regions."

The forecast for non-OPEC supply in 2017 was revised down by 28,000 b/d from the previous month's report to show an annual growth of 780,000 b/d to 57.77 million b/d.

However, it still expects non-OPEC supply show a mild growth of 150,000 b/d in H2 2017 compared to the first half of this year.

The report cited an "improving price environment," the start-up of Kashagan, the increasing number of active rigs in North America and the proportionally remarkable investment in upstream projects, as the reasons for this rise.

"This market development suggests more possibilities being ready for market rebalancing in the H1 2018," it added.

OPEC also noted that US shale output was "showing some signs of slowing down" as drawdowns in the US were occurring at a quicker pace.

In 2018, it expects non-OPEC oil supply to grow by 1.1 million b/d over the current year to average 58.87 million b/d, "which is slightly less than the expected increase in global demand in 2018."

The report started that main drivers of this growth in 2018 will be from US, Brazil, Canada, Russia, Kazakhstan, Congo and the UK while Mexico, China, Colombia and Azerbaijan are expected to see declines.

OPEC JULY SUPPLY HITS 2017 HIGH

Closer to home, OPEC's output in July rose to 32.87 million b/d, up 172,600 b/d from June, as measured by the organization's secondary sources, including S&P Global Platts, largely driven by recoveries in Libya and Nigeria, both of which are exempt from the OPEC/non-OPEC production cut deal.

Libya's output rose 154,300 b/d to 1,001,000 b/d, while Nigeria's rose 34,300 b/d to 1.75 million b/d.

Output from Saudi Arabia, OPEC's largest producer, also rose, averaging 10.07 million b/d in July, according to secondary sources.

But unlike normal practice, the kingdom did not self-report a figure to OPEC.

Iraq's production fall 33,100 b/d to hit 4.47 million b/d in July, according to secondary sources. But it self-reported a July production figure of 4.40 million b/d, down 150,000 b/d from the previous month.

Both figures are still above Iraq's quota under the OPEC/non-OPEC deal of 4.35 million b/d, as it remains among the most non-compliant members of the pact.

News that the Iraqi oil minister Jabbar al-Luaibi is in Saudi Arabia to meet his counterpart Khalid al-Falih this week to discuss oil market developments and strengthen bilateral operations, shows that more behind the scenes work to improve Iraqi compliance is under way.

Iran's output was 3.82 million b/d in July, above its quota of 3.8 million b/d, according to secondary sources, although it self-reported July output of 3.90 million b/d.

GRADUAL DECLINE IN OIL STOCKS

On the issue of inventories, OPEC observed that OECD commercial oil stocks continued to fall in June but they still remain 252 million barrels above the five-year average.

The report said that the low cost of holding inventories has "also somewhat slowed the drawdown in excess oil stocks", although OECD inventories have still seen an 87 million barrel decline since January 2017 compared to the five-year average.

It noted that the drawdowns in US crude oil inventories, "which in the last week of July saw the biggest draw yet, with more than 7.2 million barrels taken out of storage," were beginning to have a positive impact on prices.

It also said that crude oil inventories at Cushing, Oklohoma, the pricing point at for WTI crude oil futures, are just below 56 million barrels, the lowest since November 2015, providing a positive signal regarding market rebalancing.

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Earlier:

OPEC OIL PRODUCTION UP 173 TBD

OPEC OIL PRODUCTION UP 173 TBD OPEC OIL PRODUCTION UP 173 TBD Total crude oil production from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries increased 173,000 b/d month-over-month in July to average 32.87 million b/d. Total crude oil production fr ...

2017-08-14

OIL OUTPUT CONSENSUS

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2017-07-24

OPEC PRODUCTION UP TO 32.49 MBD

OPEC PRODUCTION UP TO 32.49 MBD OPEC PRODUCTION UP TO 32.49 MBD The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries produced 32.49 million b/d in June—an increase of 220,000 b/d from May and representing a 6-month high. The Organization of Petroleum Ex ...
2017-07-07

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MORE MONEY FOR OPEC MORE MONEY FOR OPEC OPECs first output cut in eight years has earned the group $1.64 billion a day so far this year, up more than 10 percent from the second half of 2016, according to Reuters calculations based on OPEC figures for ...
2017-06-30

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OPEC OIL PRODUCTION UP: 32.12 MBD OPEC OIL PRODUCTION UP: 32.12 MBD OPEC’s crude oil production increased by 270,000 bpd in May over April, to stand at 32.12mn bpd – the highest level since January this year OPEC’s crude oil production increased by 2 ...
2017-06-08

 BAD NEWS FOR OPEC

BAD NEWS FOR OPEC BAD NEWS FOR OPEC As oil prices sag despite OPEC’s renewed efforts to shore up world crude markets, Wall Street banks have more bad news for the producer group: the outlook for next year isn’t great either. As oil prices sag despite ...
2017-06-05

OPEC & NON-OPEC AGREEMENT

OPEC & NON-OPEC AGREEMENT OPEC & NON-OPEC AGREEMENT OPEC Member Countries and non-OPEC parties, Azerbaijan, Kingdom of Bahrain, Brunei Darussalam, Kazakhstan, Malaysia, Mexico, Sultanate of Oman, the Russian Federation, Republic of Sudan, and the Rep ...
2017-05-26

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tags: OPEC, OIL, DEMAND, PRODUCTION
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