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2018-11-14 11:55:00

NUCLEAR NEEDS INVESTMENT

NUCLEAR NEEDS INVESTMENT

WNNThe IEA report features three scenarios for the world's energy mix up to 2040. The New Policies Scenario looks at the impact of existing government policies and commitments on energy demand, supplies and investments. The Current Policies Scenario only includes policies that are firmly enacted, providing a benchmark. The Sustainable Development Scenario reflects the energy-related objectives that the international community has set with the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development.

"The electricity sector is experiencing its most dramatic transformation since its creation more than a century ago," according to the IEA. "Electricity is increasingly the 'fuel' of choice in economies that are relying more on lighter industrial sectors, services and digital technologies. Its share in global final consumption is approaching 20% and is set to rise further."

Under the New Policies scenario, world electricity generation increases from 25,679 TWh in 2017 to 30,253 TWh in 2025 and to 40,443 TWh in 2040. In this scenario, global nuclear generation increases from 2637 TWh in 2017 to 3726 TWh in 2040, when it will account for around 9% of total electricity production, down from the current level of about 10.5%. Fossil fuels remain the major source for electricity generation under this scenario, but their share falls from around two-thirds today to under 50% by 2040.

Electricity generation increases to 30,971 TWh in 2025 and to 42,755 TWh in 2040 under the Current Policies scenario. Nuclear electricity generation increases to 3079 TWh and 3648 TWh, respectively. In this scenario, nuclear's share of total generation drops to 8.5%.

World electricity generation will increase to 28,859 TWh in 2025 and to 37,114 TWh in 2040, under the IEA's Sustainable Development Scenario. In this scenario, global nuclear generation increases to 3303 TWh in 2025 and to 4960 TWh in 2040, when it will account for over 13% of total electricity production.

The IEA notes that the nuclear fleet in advanced economies is ageing, with around two-thirds of the fleet currently older than 30 years. "The future of the existing nuclear fleet will have major implications for the security of electricity supply and achieving environmental goals," according to the IEA. However, it suggests that extensions to the operating periods of existing reactors "are not guaranteed in the face of significant challenges ... Furthermore, market conditions are creating challenging financial conditions for both existing and prospective investment in new reactors. Low wholesale electricity prices are making it difficult to justify the additional capital investment to maintain and refurbish reactors."

It warns that without further operating period extensions and the construction of new reactors, the share of nuclear in generation capacity "will drop substantially". "Should such a situation materialise, the loss of large amounts of baseload zero-emissions supply would have major implications for the energy mix, for energy security and for the emissions trajectory."

A total of USD42.3 trillion needs to be invested in energy supply by 2040. "Nuclear power remains an important low-carbon option for many countries," the report says. "Globally, average annual investment for nuclear is USD47 billion in the period to 2040, including lifetime extensions for existing plants and new construction." China accounts for 28% of the total, followed by the European Union (19%), Russia (11%), India (9%) and the USA (8%).

The nuclear industry has set the Harmony goal for nuclear energy to provide 25% of global electricity by 2050. This will require trebling nuclear generation from its present level. Some 1000 GWe of new nuclear generating capacity will need to be constructed by then to achieve that goal.

"Rapid, least-cost energy transitions require an acceleration of investment in cleaner, smarter and more efficient energy technologies," the report says. "But policy makers also need to ensure that all key elements of energy supply, including electricity networks, remain reliable and robust."

IEA executive director Fatih Birol said: "Our analysis shows that over 70% of global energy investments will be government-driven and as such the message is clear - the world's energy destiny lies with government decisions. Crafting the right policies and proper incentives will be critical to meeting our common goals of securing energy supplies, reducing carbon emissions, improving air quality in urban centres, and expanding basic access to energy in Africa and elsewhere."

He added, "We have reviewed all current and under-construction energy infrastructure around the world - such as power plants, refineries, cars and trucks, industrial boilers, and home heaters - and find they will account for some 95% of all emissions permitted under international climate targets in coming decades."

"This means that if the world is serious about meeting its climate targets then, as of today, there needs to be a systematic preference for investment in sustainable energy technologies," Birol said. "But we also need to be much smarter about the way that we use our existing energy system. We can create some room for manoeuvre by expanding the use of carbon capture utilisation and storage, hydrogen, improving energy efficiency, and in some cases, retiring capital stock early. To be successful, this will need an unprecedented global political and economic effort."

 

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Earlier:

Nuclear
2018, October, 31, 13:05:00

SMALL NUCLEAR IS BETTER

WNN - Where a modern new nuclear project will typically have a rated capacity of between 1000 and 1600 megawatts electric, an SMR will have a capacity of around 300 MWe or less. Modular means that the major components of the SMR will be built in a factory and assembled on-site. By being small and modular, SMRs have many advantages when compared to traditional large reactors.

 

 
 Nuclear
2018, October, 10, 08:10:00

USE OF NUCLEAR POWER

WNN - A large increase in the use of nuclear power would help keep global warming to below 1.5 degrees, according to a United Nations report published today. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) special report - Global Warming of 1.5 degrees - was commissioned by governments at the Paris climate talks in 2015 and will inform the COP24 summit in Katowice, Poland this December.

 

 Nuclear
2018, September, 26, 09:35:00

OPEC: GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND WILL UP BY 33%

OPEC - Total primary energy demand is expected to increase by 91 mboe/d between 2015 and 2040 to reach 365 mboe/d in 2040

 

 Nuclear
2018, September, 17, 14:55:00

SEVEN NUCLEAR FACTORS

WNN - The future of nuclear energy depends on the industry’s readiness to address the seven factors influencing its prospects, the deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) told delegates at the World Nuclear Association Symposium 2018 held in London last week.

 

 Nuclear
2018, September, 13, 14:00:00

NUCLEAR POWER NEEDS INVESTMENT

IAEA - Overall, the new projections suggest that nuclear power may struggle to maintain its current place in the world’s energy mix. In the low case to 2030, the projections show nuclear electricity generating capacity falling by more than 10% from a net installed capacity of 392 gigawatts (electrical) (GW(e)) at the end of 2017. In the high case, generating capacity increases 30% to 511 GW(e), a drop of 45 GW(e) from last year’s projection. Longer term, generating capacity declines to 2040 in the low case before rebounding to 2030 levels by mid-century, when nuclear is seen providing 2.8% of global generating capacity compared with 5.7% today.

 

 Nuclear
2018, September, 10, 12:20:00

ELECTRICITY & NUCLEAR OPPORTUNITIES

WNN - The electrification of transport could potentially offer many opportunities for nuclear generation, Brandon Munro told the World Nuclear Association Symposium 2018 in London.

 

 Nuclear
2018, August, 17, 11:50:00

GLOBAL NUCLEAR POWER UP

WNA - Nuclear reactors generated a total of 2506 TWh of electricity in 2017, up from 2477 TWh in 2016. This is the fifth successive year that nuclear generation has risen, with output 160 TWh higher than in 2012.

 

Tags: NUCLEAR, POWER, INVESTMENT

Chronicle:

NUCLEAR NEEDS INVESTMENT
2018, December, 14, 08:55:00

GERMANY'S RENEWABLE: 38%

PLATTS - Renewables' share in Germany's power mix is set to reach 38% this year, ahead of the government's 2020 target of 35% but below-trajectory for 2030's 65% target, utility lobby group BDEW said Thursday.

NUCLEAR NEEDS INVESTMENT
2018, December, 14, 08:50:00

EBRD DECARBONISATION STRATEGY

EBRD - the Bank will no longer finance thermal coal mining or coal-fired electricity generation. The Bank will also stop funding any upstream oil exploration, and will not finance upstream oil development projects except in rare and exceptional circumstances, where such investments reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

NUCLEAR NEEDS INVESTMENT
2018, December, 14, 08:45:00

MALAYSIA'S GDP UP BY 4.7%

IMF - The Malaysian economy has shown resilience. Real GDP growth is projected at 4.7 percent for 2018, underpinned by domestic demand.

NUCLEAR NEEDS INVESTMENT
2018, December, 14, 08:40:00

BOLIVIA'S GDP UP BY 4.5%

IMF - Bolivia's real GDP growth is projected at 4.5 percent in 2018, one of the highest rates in the region. Growth is supported by continued accommodative policies, a second economy-wide wage bonus, and strong agriculture output.

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