OIL PRICE: NEAR $72 YET

REUTERS -  Oil prices dipped on Wednesday as high output and U.S. sanction waivers allowing Iran's biggest buyers to keep taking its crude reinforced the outlook for a well-supplied market.

Front-month Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $71.83 per barrel at 0750 GMT, down 30 cents, or 0.4 percent, from their last close.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 was at $61.84, down 37 cents, or 0.6 percent.

Brent and WTI have slumped by 17.4 and 19.7 percent respectively from their four-year peaks in October.

U.S. bank J.P. Morgan said the "sell-off in oil was due to excessive crude" from rising production "whilst Iranian supply was still in the market".

Washington re-imposed sanctions against Iran's oil exports on Monday but granted waivers to its biggest customers, allowing limited imports for the next 180 days.

Refinitiv data showed Iranian exports have fallen to 1 million barrels per day (bpd) so far in November, down from around 3 million bpd in mid-2018.

But Iran supply is expected to rise after November as waivers are used to start ordering more Iranian oil.

"Waivers are likely to be more extensive than the market expected," energy consultancy FGE said, estimating that waivers overall would allow 1.2 to 1.7 million bpd of exports.

Japan's refiner JXTG Holdings said on Wednesday it might resume orders of Iranian oil in December.

In China, a flotilla of supertankers carrying around 9 million barrels of Iranian oil worth about $650 million is sitting outside Dalian port.

Most ships arrived in the last 30 days, shipping data showed, as Iran tried to get as much crude as possible into markets before the sanctions took effect.

"With the waivers, prices can be managed in the $70-$80 per barrel range, with the upside at around $85 per barrel and the downside limited to $65 per barrel," FGE said.

For Iran, however, the waivers still mean it will likely receive no direct income from its sales as the United States freezes the money.

"Any of these waivers based payments for the oil by the exempt countries must go into escrow accounts ... The money won't directly go to Iran and it can only be used to buy certain non-sanctioned goods from its crude export customers," J.P. Morgan said.

WAVE OF SUPPLY

Beyond Iran, U.S. bank Morgan Stanley said "supply continues to come in higher-than-expected, particularly from the U.S., Middle East OPEC, Russia and Libya."

Output from the world's top-three producers Russia, the United States and Saudi Arabia, broke through 33 million bpd for the first time in October. These three countries now meet more than a third of global consumption.

Iraq, second-largest producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), plans to raise output to 5 million bpd in 2019, from 4.6 million bpd currently.

Eyeing the wave of new supply, Morgan Stanley lowered its year-end and first-half 2019 Brent price forecast from $85 per barrel to $77.50.

Inventories are also swelling.

U.S. crude stocks climbed by 7.8 million barrels in the week ending Nov. 2 to 432 million, data from the American Petroleum Institute showed on Tuesday.

J.P.Morgan said "global floating storage has increased by 3.6 million barrels since July '18 to 33.9 million barrels."

Despite the well-supplied market, J.P. Morgan still warned "the risk to supply remains very high" due to geopolitical risk and a "lack of spare capacity."

Part of this risk comes from Venezuela, where crude production is in "free-fall" and could soon drop below 1 million bpd, the International Energy Agency's Executive Director Fatih Birol said on Tuesday, down from the more than 2 million bpd it averaged last year.

-----

Earlier: 

2018, November, 5, 12:25:00 OIL PRICE: NEAR $72 REUTERS - Brent crude oil LCOc1 was down 30 cents a barrel at $72.53 by 0815 GMT. U.S. light crude CLc1 was 30 cents lower at $62.84 a barrel.

2018, November, 5, 12:10:00 RUSSIA'S HELP TO IRAN FT - Russia has vowed to help Iran counter US attempts to throttle its oil sales when sanctions come into effect next week, saying it will continue trading Tehran’s crude in defiance of Washington.

2018, November, 2, 12:20:00 OIL PRICE: NOT ABOVE $73 REUTERS - Front-month Brent crude futures were at $72.88 per barrel at 0737 GMT on Friday, 1 cent below their last close. They first fell on Friday on surging supplies, before rising with global markets and then dipping again on the back of the reported Iran sanctions waivers. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 33 cents, or 0.5 percent, at $63.36 a barrel.

2018, November, 2, 12:10:00 ЦЕНА URALS: $71.55 МИНФИН РОССИИ - Средняя цена нефти марки Urals по итогам января – октября 2018 года составила $ 71,55 за баррель.

2018, October, 31, 13:20:00 OIL PRICE: NEAR $77 AGAIN REUTERS - Benchmark Brent crude oil LCOc1 was up 80 cents at $76.71 a barrel by 0840 GMT. The contract fell 1.8 percent on Tuesday, at one point touching its lowest since Aug. 24 at $75.09. U.S. light crude CLc1 was up 60 cents at $66.78. It hit a two-month low of $65.33 a barrel on Tuesday.

2018, October, 29, 12:55:00 OIL PRICE: NEAR $77 REUTERS - Front-month Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were trading down 46 cents, or 0.6 percent, at $77.16 a barrel at 0745 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $67.19 a barrel, down 40 cents, or 0.6 percent.

2018, October, 29, 12:45:00 OPEC: CONFORMITY LEVEL 111% OPEC - The JMMC noted that countries participating in the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ achieved a conformity level of 111% in September 2018, which shows significant progress towards the goal set at the 4th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting of 23 June 2018.