RUSSIA - SAUDI ARABIA COOPERATION

IEA - OPEC and some non-OPEC oil ministers met in Vienna last week and agreed to curb their output by 1.2 mb/d in order to address growing surpluses in the market. The agreement aims to achieve relative stability and to bring the market towards balance. So far, the Brent crude oil price seems to have found a floor, remaining close to $60/bbl much where it was when the ministers met. Recently, prices have been volatile; in early October Brent crude oil prices reached $86/bbl on concerns that the market could tighten as Iranian sanctions were implemented. Then, thirty-seven days later, they fell back to $58/bbl as producers more than met the challenge of replacing Iranian and other barrels. Such volatility is not in the interests of producers or consumers.

Last week’s meeting reminded us that the Big Three of oil – Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States – whose total liquids production now comprises about 40% of the global total, are the dominant players. Cooperation between Russia and Saudi Arabia is now the basis of production management with these two countries having a large capacity to swing output one way or the other. For them, prices falling further would place their budgets under great stress. The third, non-playing member, so to speak, of the Big Three is the United States, which is now the world’s biggest crude oil producer and where production management is a company level, economically driven decision. The United States is also the world’s biggest consumer and lower prices are welcome, although its producers will want to see them stay high enough to encourage further investment.

While the US was not present in Vienna, nobody could ignore its growing influence. On the day OPEC ministers sat down to talk, an important piece of data was published: according to the Energy Information Administration, in the week to 30 November the US was a net exporter of crude and products for the first time since at least 1991. The number, 211 kb/d, is modest and even if it proves to be an isolated data point, the long-term trend is clear. In 2018 to date, US net imports have averaged 3.1 mb/d. Ten years ago, just ahead of the shale revolution, the figure was 11.1 mb/d. As production grows inexorably, so will net imports decline and rising US exports will provide competition in many markets, including to some of the countries meeting in Vienna last week.

New data shows little change to our 2018 estimates. Demand will grow by 1.3 mb/d although there are signs that the pace is slackening in some countries as the impact of higher prices lingers. As far as non-OPEC supply is concerned, our estimate for growth is revised slightly up to 2.4 mb/d. For 2019, our demand growth outlook remains at 1.4 mb/d even though oil prices have fallen back considerably since the early October peak. Some of the support provided by lower prices will be offset by weaker economic growth globally, and particularly in some emerging economies. For non-OPEC supply, we have revised our growth forecast for 2019 down by 415 kb/d, partly due to expected cuts from Russia agreed last week, and to lower growth in Canada. The serious build-up of stocks arising from logistical bottlenecks in Alberta led the provincial government to act very decisively to curb output. The initial cutback of 325 kb/d for three months to allow blockages to ease is a significant development. Apart from lowering production, it should narrow the differential between West Canadian Select prices and WTI, which reached $51/bbl at one point.

Time will tell how effective the new production agreement will be in re-balancing the oil market. The next meeting of the Vienna Agreement countries takes place in April, and we hope that the intervening period is less volatile than has recently been the case.

-----

Earlier: 

2018, December, 12, 09:15:00 OIL PRICE: NEAR $61 YET REUTERS - International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $60.86 per barrel at 0543 GMT, up 66 cents, or 1.1 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were at $52.22 per barrel, up 57 cents, or 1.1 percent.

2018, December, 12, 09:10:00 RUSSIA WILL CUT 50 TBD PLATTS - Russia will cut its liquids output by 50,000-60,000 b/d in January under the latest agreement with OPEC, energy minister Alexander Novak said Tuesday. "The monthly schedule for the output cut has already been [set]... We expect output will be cut by at least 50,000 b/d-60,000 b/d in January," he said, as reported by Prime news agency. Русский | English

2018, December, 12, 09:05:00 АЛЕКСАНДР НОВАК В ИНТЕРВЬЮ CNN: “НАШИ РЕШЕНИЯ ОСНОВАНЫ НА ФУНДАМЕНТАЛЬНЫХ ФАКТОРАХ РЫНКА” МИНЭНЕРГО РОССИИ - Как отметил Александр Новак, принятое решение о снижении суммарной добычи на 1,2 млн барр./сутки отражает ожидания рынка накануне встречи стран ОПЕК и не ОПЕК. As noted by Alexander Novak, the decision to reduce the total production by 1.2 million barrels per day reflects the market expectations on the eve of the meeting of OPEC and non-OPEC countries. Русский | English

2018, December, 12, 09:00:00 OIL PRICE 2019: $61 U.S. EIA - EIA expects Brent spot prices will average $61 in 2019 and that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices will average about $7/b lower than Brent prices next year. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for March 2019 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending December 6, 2018, suggest a range of $36/b to $77/b encompasses the market expectation for March WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.

2018, December, 10, 08:55:00 OIL PRODUCTION DOWN 1.2 MBD OPEC - Accordingly, the 5th OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, following deliberations on the immediate oil market prospects and in view of a growing imbalance between global oil supply and demand in 2019, hereby decided to adjust the overall production by 1.2 mb/d, effective as of January 2019 for an initial period of six months. The contributions from OPEC and the voluntary contributions from non-OPEC participating countries of the ‘Declaration of Cooperation’ will correspond to 0.8 mb/d (2.5%), and 0.4 mb/d (2.0%), respectively. Русский | English

2018, December, 10, 08:50:00 АЛЕКСАНДР НОВАК: “МЫ ПРИВЕРЖЕНЫ ДОГОВОРЕННОСТЯМ, И РЫНОК ЭТО ЦЕНИТ” “Было принято решение с 1 января сократить суммарно добычу на 1,2 млн барр в сутки, из них 800 тыс. возьмут на себя страны ОПЕК. Россия также примет участие в этом. Для нас это означает, что по отношению к октябрю 2018 года мы должны будем сократить производство на 2% или 220 тыс баррелей, это будет происходить постепенно”, - подчеркнул Министр.

2018, December, 10, 08:45:00 ALEXANDER NOVAK: “THE COOPERATION OF OPEC COUNTRIES + MUST CONTINUE” Министр энергетики Российской Федерации Александр Новак в интервью телеканалу “Bloomberg”, которое состоялось по окончании 5-й Министерской встречи стран ОПЕК и не входящих в ОПЕК государств, рассказал о принятых решениях и их влиянии на рынок, разговоре с Министром нефти Ирана Бижаном Намдар Зангане накануне заседания, а также поделился прогнозами цен на нефть в будущем. Русский | English