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2018-02-09 11:00:00

OIL PRICES: $62

OIL PRICES: $62

 

EIASHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK

Prices

  • North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $69 per barrel (b) in January, an increase of $5/b from the December level. Monthly average Brent prices have increased for seven consecutive months, and, on January 11, spot prices moved higher than $70/b for the first time since December 2014. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average about $62/b in both 2018 and 2019 compared with an average of $54/b in 2017.
  • EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average $4/b lower than Brent prices in both 2018 and 2019. NYMEX WTI contract values for May 2018 delivery traded during the five-day period ending February 1, 2018, suggest a range of $55/b to $77/b encompasses the market expectation for May 2018 WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • In January, the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price averaged $3.88 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), up $1.06/MMBtu from December. Cold temperatures east of the Rocky Mountains in early January contributed to high levels of natural gas consumption as well as a reduction in production because of well freeze-offs. This combination resulted in record-high natural gas inventory withdrawals in mid-January, which contributed to rising prices.
  • EIA expects natural gas prices to moderate in the coming months, based on a forecast of record growth in natural gas production. EIA expects Henry Hub spot prices to average $3.34/MMBtu in February and $3.20/MMBtu for all of 2018. In 2019, EIA forecasts prices will average $3.08/MMBtu. NYMEX contract values for May 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending February 1, 2018, suggest that a range of $2.26/MMBtu to $3.67/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for May Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.

 

Global Liquid Fuels

  • North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $69 per barrel (b) in January, an increase of $5/b from the December level. Monthly average Brent prices have increased for seven consecutive months, and, on January 11, spot prices moved higher than $70/b for the first time since December 2014. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average about $62/b in both 2018 and 2019 compared with an average of $54/b in 2017.
  • EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average $4/b lower than Brent prices in both 2018 and 2019. NYMEX WTI contract values for May 2018 delivery traded during the five-day period ending February 1, 2018, suggest a range of $55/b to $77/b encompasses the market expectation for May 2018 WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
  • EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in January, up 100,000 b/d from the December level. EIA estimates that total U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.3 million b/d in 2017 and will average 10.6 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average U.S. crude oil production level, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. EIA forecasts that 2019 crude oil production will average 11.2 million b/d.
  • EIA estimates that global petroleum and other liquid fuels inventories declined by 0.5 million b/d in 2017. In this forecast, global inventories grow by about 0.2 million b/d in both 2018 and 2019.

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Earlier:

Prices
2018, February, 7, 08:25:00

OIL PRICE: ABOVE $67 YET

BLOOMBERG - West Texas Intermediate for March delivery rose as much as 79 cents to $64.18 a barrel and traded at $63.88 as of 11:39 a.m. in Singapore. The contract fell 76 cents to $63.39 on Tuesday. Total volume traded was about 16 percent above the 100-day average. Brent for April settlement rose 46 cents to $67.32 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange, snapping a three-day decline. The global benchmark crude traded at a premium of $3.73 to April WTI.

 

 Prices
2018, February, 2, 12:25:00

OIL PRICE WILL BE $80

BLOOMBERG - Brent will reach $75 a barrel over the next three months and will climb to $82.50 within six months, analysts including Damien Courvalin wrote in an emailed report. Their previous estimate for both time periods was $62 a barrel.

 

 Prices
2018, January, 24, 12:15:00

СОГЛАШЕНИЕ ВЫПОЛНЕНО НА 107%

МИНЭНЕРГО РОССИИ - АЛЕКСАНДР НОВАК: СОГЛАШЕНИЕ ОПЕК+ ПО ИТОГАМ 2017 ГОДА ВЫПОЛНЕНО НА 107%

 

 Prices
2018, January, 10, 13:05:00

OIL PRICES: $60 - $61

EIA - Brent crude oil prices averaged $54/b in 2017 and are forecast to average $60/b in 2018 and $61/b in 2019. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil spot prices are forecast to average $4/b less than Brent prices in both 2018 and 2019. EIA’s forecast for the average WTI price for December 2018 of $58/b should be considered in the context of NYMEX contract values for December 2018 delivery. NYMEX contract values traded during the five-day period ending January 4 suggest that a range of $40/b to $85/b encompasses the market expectation for WTI prices in December 2018 at the 95% confidence level.

 

 Prices
2017, December, 15, 13:10:00

UNCERTAIN OIL PRICES

EIA - The forecast for oil prices remains highly uncertain. WTI futures contracts for March 2018 delivery, traded during the five-day period ending December 7, 2017, averaged $57/b.

 

 Prices
2017, December, 13, 12:30:00

OIL PRICE - 2018: $57

EIA - North Sea Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $63 per barrel (b) in November, an increase of $5/b from the average in October. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices to average $57/b in 2018, up from an average of $54/b in 2017.

 

 Prices
2017, November, 27, 20:05:00

OIL SUPPLY & DEMAND

BLOOMBERG - Global crude inventories are declining and supply and demand are in balance, according to the head of Saudi Aramco, while the United Arab Emirates energy minister said U.S. shale oil doesn’t threaten OPEC’s efforts to support the market.

 

 

 

 

 

Tags: OIL, PRICE, BRENT, WTI, URALS, OPEC, НЕФТЬ, ЦЕНА

Chronicle:

OIL PRICES: $62
2018, August, 17, 11:30:00

U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP 0.1%

U.S. FRB - Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in July after rising at an average pace of 0.5 percent over the previous five months. Manufacturing production increased 0.3 percent, the output of utilities moved down 0.5 percent, and, after posting five consecutive months of growth, the index for mining declined 0.3 percent. At 108.0 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.2 percent higher in July than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was unchanged in July at 78.1 percent, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.

OIL PRICES: $62
2018, August, 17, 11:25:00

NORWAY'S PETROLEUM PRODUCTION: 1.911 MBD

NPD - Preliminary production figures for July 2018 show an average daily production of 1 911 000 barrels of oil, NGL and condensate, which is an increase of 64 000 barrels per day compared to June.

OIL PRICES: $62
2018, August, 17, 11:20:00

GAZPROM NEFT NET PROFIT UP TO 49.6%

GAZPROM NEFT - For the first six months of 2018 Gazprom Neft achieved revenue** growth of 24.4% year-on-year, at one trillion, 137.7 billion rubles (RUB1,137,700,000,000). The Company achieved a 49.8% year-on-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, to RUB368.2 billion. This performance reflected positive market conditions for oil and oil products, production growth at the Company’s new projects, and effective management initiatives. Net profit attributable to Gazprom Neft PJSC shareholders grew 49.6% year on year, to RUB166.4 billion. Growth in the Company’s operating cash flow, as well as the completion of key infrastructure investments at new upstream projects, delivered positive free cash flow of RUB47.5 billion for 1H 2018.

OIL PRICES: $62
2018, August, 15, 11:10:00

OIL PRICE: NEAR $72

REUTERS - Front-month Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $72.34 per barrel at 0648 GMT, down by 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were down 23 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $66.81 per barrel.

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