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2018-03-12 08:30:00

VENEZUELA'S RATINGS DOWN

VENEZUELA'S RATINGS DOWN

MOODY'SMoody's Investors Service has downgraded the Government of Venezuela's foreign currency and local currency issuer ratings, foreign and local currency senior unsecured ratings, and foreign currency senior secured rating to C from Caa3. Concurrently, the foreign currency senior unsecured medium term note program has also been downgraded to (P)C from (P)Caa3. The outlook has been changed to stable from negative.

RATINGS RATIONALE

The key drivers underpinning the ratings downgrade are:

1) Moody's expectation that the continuing erosion of Venezuela's payment capacity will lead to heavy losses to bondholders, with ongoing defaults on interest payments on various bonds compounded by upcoming principal maturities

2) The limits on Venezuela's ability to restructure its debt posed by current US sanctions that prevent US investors from accepting new debt instruments under a potential debt exchange, which will further exacerbate losses.

In a related decision, Moody's lowered Venezuela's long-term country ceilings: the local-currency country ceilings for bonds and bank deposits to Ca from Caa2; the foreign-currency bond ceiling to Ca from Caa3; the foreign-currency bank deposit ceiling to C from Ca. The short-term foreign currency bond and deposit ceilings remain unchanged at Not-Prime (NP).

Today's action signals that in Moody's view Venezuela's capacity to service its principal and interest obligations will remain severely impaired, and that losses to bondholders will be very high, most likely in excess of 65%. This view principally reflects the following drivers.

FIRST DRIVER: CONTINUING EROSION OF PAYMENT CAPACITY AND FURTHER DEFAULTS ON UPCOMING PAYMENTS WILL COMPOUND LOSSES

The ongoing decline in Venezuela's oil production is likely to be sustained and will further pressure foreign currency cash flows, with severe hard currency shortages unlikely to abate. The prospects for Venezuela's oil sector are likely to mirror the country's worsening financial situation. The country's large external funding gap and diminishing financing sources imply that upcoming debt service payments will continue to be missed. Already since November 2017 when the first defaults on market debt occurred, pending coupon payments due from both the sovereign and the state-owned oil company PDVSA have surpassed $1.7 billion.

Given that the government has so far made late payments only on PDVSA coupons that went beyond 30-day grace periods and not on sovereign coupons, it is increasingly likely that the government will not be able to meet upcoming principal payments on its market debt, the first falling in August 2018 for $1.05 billion. Even though the authorities have signaled that they plan to remediate some of the late payments on interest on both PDVSA and sovereign bonds, cash flow pressures from the lower oil production will weigh heavily on their ability to clear all arrears. We expect that losses on principal and interest will be very high and consistent with a C rating.

SECOND DRIVER: CONSTRAINED ABILITY TO RESTRUCTURE DEBT WILL EXACERBATE LOSSES

The current US sanctions against Venezuela contain restrictions that make it impossible for the country to refinance, and hence restructure, its outstanding market obligations on debt held by US companies or investors despite President Maduro's announcement on 2 November 2017 that the government intends to restructure its debt. Even if there were investor appetite to restructure Venezuela's debt, current sanctions would make this unlawful for US bondholders to do so. The inability to ease near-term liquidity pressures through a formal restructuring will exacerbate the government's financial constraints and heighten losses to bondholders.

Moreover, the US government has suggested further sanctions could be forthcoming if, as seems very likely, free and fair elections are not held. The upcoming presidential election in Venezuela that has now been set for 20 May will be boycotted by most of the opposition due to allegations of fraud in regional elections held in October 2017 and in municipal elections held in December 2017. New sanctions following the vote may target Venezuela's oil sector, further undermining the sovereign's ability to clear any arrears or make upcoming payments, potentially requiring greater debt relief in an eventual restructuring.

Because of these additional considerations, losses in past sovereign defaults offer limited visibility for Venezuela. However, while the magnitude of losses if the restructuring actually takes place is highly uncertain, they are in Moody's view very likely to be substantial, consistent with current market pricing of Venezuela's outstanding sovereign debt instruments. As such, very low recovery values for bondholders, in line with Moody's lowest rating of C, are likely.

WHAT COULD CHANGE THE RATING UP

Venezuela's sovereign rating would move up from the current level of C if a restructuring were to provide sufficient cash flow relief to ease the severe foreign currency liquidity shortages and allow debt service to recommence. A withdrawal of current financial sanctions, or any possible new ones, by the US would enhance Venezuela's ability to orchestrate such a restructuring, which would likely decrease the severity of losses on bondholders somewhat, potentially supporting a higher rating.

GDP per capita (PPP basis, US$): 14,016 (2016 Actual) (also known as Per Capita Income)

Real GDP growth (% change): -16.2% (2016 Actual) (also known as GDP Growth)

Inflation Rate (CPI, % change Dec/Dec): 660.1% (2016 Actual)

Gen. Gov. Financial Balance/GDP: -2% (2016 Actual) (also known as Fiscal Balance)

Current Account Balance/GDP: -3.4% (2016 Actual) (also known as External Balance)

External debt/GDP: 94.4% (2016 Actual)

Level of economic development: Low level of economic resilience

Default history: At least one default event (on bonds and/or loans) has been recorded since 1983.

On 08 March 2018, a rating committee was called to discuss the rating of the Venezuela, Government of. The main points raised during the discussion were: The issuer's fiscal or financial strength, including its debt profile, has materially decreased. The issuer has become increasingly susceptible to event risks.

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Earlier:

 S.America
2018, January, 15, 09:45:00

VENEZUELA'S OIL UP

REUTERS - Venezuela’s oil production has increased to near 1.9 million barrels per day (bpd) after hitting a historic low last year, according to Manuel Quevedo, oil minister and head of state oil firm PDVSA, who vowed 2018 will see output rise to more than 2.4 million bpd.

 

 S.America
2018, January, 10, 12:45:00

VENEZUELA'S OIL DOWN TO 1.7 MBD

PLATTS - Venezuelan crude output plummeted in December to 1.70 million b/d, according to the latest S&P Global Platts OPEC survey released Monday.

 

 S.America
2018, January, 8, 19:20:00

U.S. - VENEZUELA SANCTIONS

U.S.DT - “President Maduro and his inner circle continue to put their own interests above those of the Venezuelan people,” said Treasury Secretary Steven T. Mnuchin. “This action underscores the United States’ resolve to hold Maduro and others engaged in corruption in Venezuela accountable. We call on concerned parties and international partners around the world to join us as we stand with the Venezuelan people to further isolate this oppressive regime.”

 

 S.America
2017, November, 22, 11:25:00

РУССКИЙ ДОЛГ ВЕНЕСУЭЛЫ: $3.15 МЛРД.

МИНФИН РОССИИ - Сумма консолидированного долга Венесуэлы составила 3,15 млрд. долл. США, новый график погашения задолженности предусматривает платежи в течение 10 лет, объем которых в первые 6 лет минимален.

 

 S.America
2017, November, 17, 19:45:00

RUSSIA - VENEZUELA RESTRUCTURING $3 BLN

FT - Russia has come to the aid of Venezuela with a deal to restructure $3.15bn of sovereign debt, allowing Caracas to meet obligations to other creditors and underlining Moscow’s role as the crisis-hit country’s main foreign backer.

 

 S.America
2017, November, 7, 12:15:00

VERY IMPORTANT VENEZUELA

The step to restructure debt comes as Venezuela stands to receive more revenue for its oil. The country’s crude oil basket price rose to CNY350.75 ($52.90) a barrel Friday, the highest since July 2015. And Venezuela did approve a $1.1 billion principal payment on a PDVSA bond on Thursday.

 

 S.America
2017, September, 18, 12:30:00

RUSSIA - CHINA - VENEZUELA OIL

“The principal risk regarding Russian and Chinese activities in Venezuela in the near term is that they will exploit the unfolding crisis, including the effect of US sanctions, to deepen their control over Venezuela’s resources, and their [financial] leverage over the country as an anti-US political and military partner,” observed R. Evan Ellis, a senior associate in the Center for Strategic and International Studies’ Americas Program.

Tags: VENEZUELA

Chronicle:

VENEZUELA'S RATINGS DOWN
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ЦЕНА URALS: $74,45568

МИНФИН РОССИИ - Средняя цена на нефть Urals за период мониторинга с 15 августа по 14 сентября 2018 года составила $74,45568 за баррель, или $543,5 за тонну. Согласно расчетам Минфина России экспортная пошлина на нефть в РФ с 1 октября 2018 года повысится на $7,5 и составит $137,5 за тонну.

VENEZUELA'S RATINGS DOWN
2018, September, 19, 13:39:00

SAUDIS OIL PRODUCTION: 10.42 MBD

PLATTS - Saudi production has since risen to 10.42 million b/d in August, the country reported to OPEC in the organization's most recent monthly oil market report. Saudi Arabia's crude oil stocks, which have been declining steadily over the last three years, fell to 229.41 million barrels in July, down 11.4% since May 2017, the JODI data showed.

VENEZUELA'S RATINGS DOWN
2018, September, 19, 13:35:00

U.S. PRODUCTION: OIL + 79 TBD, GAS + 961 MCFD

U.S. EIA - Crude oil production from the major US onshore regions is forecast to increase 79,000 b/d month-over-month in October from 7,515 to 7,594 thousand barrels/day , gas production to increase 961 million cubic feet/day from 72,127 to 73,088 million cubic feet/day .

VENEZUELA'S RATINGS DOWN
2018, September, 19, 13:30:00

U.S. - CHINA SANCTIONS: $60 BLN

REUTERS - Beijing on Tuesday said it would tax U.S. products worth $60 billion effective Sept. 24 in retaliation for tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump in an escalating trade war.

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