OIL PRICE 2018-19: $63
EIA - SHORT-TERM ENERGY OUTLOOK
Brent crude oil spot prices averaged $66 per barrel (b) in March. EIA forecasts Brent spot prices will average about $63/b in both 2018 and 2019. EIA expects West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices to average $4/b lower than Brent prices in both 2018 and 2019. NYMEX WTI futures and options contract values for July 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending April 5, 2018, suggest a range of $52/b to $78/b encompasses the market expectation for July 2018 WTI prices at the 95% confidence level.
EIA expects Henry Hub natural gas spot prices to average $2.99/million British Thermal units (MMBtu) in 2018 and $3.07/MMBtu in 2019. The average NYMEX futures and options contract values for July 2018 delivery that traded during the five-day period ending April 5, 2018, suggest that a range of $2.30/MMBtu to $3.43/MMBtu encompasses the market expectation for July Henry Hub natural gas prices at the 95% confidence level.
EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production averaged 10.4 million barrels per day (b/d) in March, up 260,000 b/d from the February level. Total U.S. crude oil production averaged 9.3 million b/d in 2017. EIA projects that U.S. crude oil production will average 10.7 million b/d in 2018, which would mark the highest annual average U.S. crude oil production level, surpassing the previous record of 9.6 million b/d set in 1970. EIA forecasts that 2019 crude oil production will again increase, averaging 11.4 million b/d.
U.S. dry natural gas production averaged 73.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017. EIA forecasts dry natural gas production will average 81.1 Bcf/d in 2018, establishing a new record. EIA expects natural gas production will rise by 1.7 Bcf/d in 2019.
Growing U.S. natural gas production is expected to support both growing domestic consumption and increasing natural gas exports in the forecast. EIA forecasts U.S. consumption of natural gas to increase by 4.2 Bcf/d (5.7%) in 2018 and by 0.7 Bcf/d (0.9%) in 2019, with electric power generation the leading contributor to this increase. EIA also expects net natural gas exports to increase from 0.4 Bcf/d in 2017 to an annual average of 2.2 Bcf/d in 2018 and 4.4 Bcf/d in 2019.
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WNN - The future of nuclear energy depends on the industry’s readiness to address the seven factors influencing its prospects, the deputy director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) told delegates at the World Nuclear Association Symposium 2018 held in London last week.
WNN - The UK's National Nuclear Laboratory (NNL) and the US Department of Energy's Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) have agreed to cooperate on nuclear energy research. The announcement came as the UK and USA signed a nuclear R&D action plan.
U.S. FRB - Industrial production rose 0.4 percent in August for its third consecutive monthly increase. Manufacturing output moved up 0.2 percent on the strength of a 4.0 percent rise for motor vehicles and parts; motor vehicle assemblies jumped to an annual rate of 11.5 million units, the strongest reading since April. Excluding the gain in motor vehicles and parts, factory output was unchanged.
BAKER HUGHES A GE - U.S. Rig Count is up 7 rigs from last week to 1,055, with oil rigs up 7 to 867, gas rigs unchanged at 186, and miscellaneous rigs unchanged at 2. Canada Rig Count is up 22 rigs from last week to 226, with oil rigs up 15 to 148 and gas rigs up 7 to 78.