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2018-05-23 10:15:00

NO OIL FUTURE 2040

NO OIL FUTURE 2040

BLOOMBERG The global transition to electric vehicles and renewable sources of power will see oil company revenue plummet.

The rollout of 540 million electric vehicles by 2040 will cause oil demand to peak in the mid-2020s, slashing income by $19 trillion, according to Oxford, England-based Aurora Energy Research Ltd. Gas and power will provide more than half of final energy consumption, up from 39 percent currently.

Aurora's "analysis points to a possible energy future of mass electrification, digitization, and new technologies, in which the rise in electric vehicles and continued improvements in fuel efficiency lead to peak oil demand occurring in the mid-2020," Richard Howard, head of research at Aurora, said in the report. "This flips the very idea of 'peak oil' -- previously hypothesized for the supply side – as electricity grows in importance as a transport energy source."

Oil companies are struggling to find an identity for themselves in a greener, more environmentally aware world. But they recognize that they need to change to survive. Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc are trying to find ways to offer EV charging alongside traditional gasoline pumps at service stations and are buying up renewable generation.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates global power demand will surge 58 percent by 2040 from 2016 levels, with $10.2 trillion of investment needed in the sector. During the same period the growth of electric vehicles is seen displacing about 8 million barrels of oil a day -- equivalent to the current total production of Iran and Iraq.

OPEC's strategy will change to increase production to gain market share from one of restricting supply in order to prop up prices, according to Aurora. With demand declining in the 2030s, the company's "burnout scenario" predicts that oil prices could fall to $32 per barrel in 2040 from about $80 currently.

Total fossil fuel revenue will fall to $21 trillion, 10 percent of which is due to coal, as that fuel loses favor in power generation. Prices will collapse to $28 a ton by 2040, from about $90 now, "barely above the marginal cost of production and transport."

Natural gas will probably emerge as the main fossil fuel "winner" as it balances renewables in power generation and is used as a substitute for oil in petrochemicals. Long-term gas demand is set to increase by 15 percent, or by 750 billion cubic meters, compared to business as usual, Aurora said.

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Earlier:

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2018, March, 28, 11:15:00

GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND + 2.1%

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2018, March, 26, 07:50:00

NUCLEAR: MORE ELECTRICITY

IAEA - “Nuclear technology helps countries to produce more food, generate more electricity, treat diseases such as cancer, manage water supplies, protect the seas and oceans and respond to climate change — and much more,”

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2018, February, 16, 23:35:00

ФУНДАМЕНТАЛЬНЫЕ ПРЕОБРАЗОВАНИЯ РЫНКА

МИНЭНЕРГО РОССИИ - Александр Новак поделился своим видением будущего углеводородной энергетики: «Она обладает огромным потенциалом цифровизации своих процессов, гибкой подстройки под нужды потребителей. Доля углеводородов, безусловно, будет снижаться, но с учетом роста населения, автопарка, спроса на энергию, абсолютное потребление продолжит расти. Если мы хотим надежно обеспечить мир энергией, нам придется найти разумный баланс между традиционной и новой энергетикой».

 Electricity
2018, January, 15, 10:10:00

RUSSIAN NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY UP TO 18.9%

ROSATOM - Following 2017, a share of electricity production by Russian nuclear power plants has increased up to 18.9%.

 Electricity
2017, June, 2, 16:25:00

УМНАЯ ЭНЕРГИЯ РОССИИ

В своем выступлении первый замглавы ведомства отметил, что трансформация российской энергетики – сегодня не самоцель, а объективная задача государственного значения. «Мы живем в один из самых динамичных периодов в истории человечества. Технологии стремительно меняет нашу жизнь. Компаниям и государствам важно сохранять гибкость и открытость к новым идеям, чтобы не отстать в этой гонке», – подчеркнул Алексей Текслер.

 Electricity
2017, May, 16, 12:10:00

CHINA'S GLOBAL ENERGY

Cooperation will focus on grid planning, fundamental research, policy coordination, project development and information sharing, according to the deals signed between GEIDCO and the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, the African Union Commission, the League of Arab States and the grid management bureau with the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf.

 Electricity
2017, April, 10, 18:45:00

INDIA'S ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

Peak electricity demand has grown nearly 13% over the past two years as a growing middle class seeks new services, such as air conditioning, which continue to place higher demands on the system. Over the next 25 years, energy demand is expected to more than double as a result.

 

 

Tags: OIL, GAS, PRICE, INVESTMENT

Chronicle:

NO OIL FUTURE 2040
2018, November, 19, 11:20:00

U.S. SECURITIES OUTFLOW $29.1 BLN

U.S. DT - The sum total in September of all net foreign acquisitions of long-term securities, short-term U.S. securities, and banking flows was a net TIC outflow of $29.1 billion. Of this, net foreign private inflows were $23.5 billion, and net foreign official outflows were $52.7 billion.

NO OIL FUTURE 2040
2018, November, 19, 11:15:00

U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP 0.1%

U.S. FRB - Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in October, as a gain for manufacturing outweighed decreases elsewhere. As a result of upward revisions primarily in mining, the overall index is now reported to have advanced at an annual rate of 4.7 percent in the third quarter, appreciably above the gain of 3.3 percent reported initially.

NO OIL FUTURE 2040
2018, November, 19, 11:10:00

GREEN NUCLEAR ENERGY

WNN - "nuclear energy is a "mature, low greenhouse gas emission source of baseload generation that could make an increasing contribution to global development based on low-carbon energy supply".

NO OIL FUTURE 2040
2018, November, 19, 11:05:00

SAUDIS, PAKISTAN INVESTMENT: $6 BLN

ARAB NEWS - Saudi Arabia has shown investment interest in Pakistan’s largest coastal refinery, a multibillion-dollar project being set up at Khalifa Point, near Hub, Balochistan, officials have confirmed.

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