Здравствуйте. Вся информация этого сайта бесплатна. Вы можете сделать пожертвование и поддержать наше развитие. Спасибо.

Hello. All information of this site is free of charge. You can make a donation and support our development. Thank you.

2018-05-23 10:15:00

NO OIL FUTURE 2040

NO OIL FUTURE 2040

BLOOMBERG The global transition to electric vehicles and renewable sources of power will see oil company revenue plummet.

The rollout of 540 million electric vehicles by 2040 will cause oil demand to peak in the mid-2020s, slashing income by $19 trillion, according to Oxford, England-based Aurora Energy Research Ltd. Gas and power will provide more than half of final energy consumption, up from 39 percent currently.

Aurora's "analysis points to a possible energy future of mass electrification, digitization, and new technologies, in which the rise in electric vehicles and continued improvements in fuel efficiency lead to peak oil demand occurring in the mid-2020," Richard Howard, head of research at Aurora, said in the report. "This flips the very idea of 'peak oil' -- previously hypothesized for the supply side – as electricity grows in importance as a transport energy source."

Oil companies are struggling to find an identity for themselves in a greener, more environmentally aware world. But they recognize that they need to change to survive. Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BP Plc are trying to find ways to offer EV charging alongside traditional gasoline pumps at service stations and are buying up renewable generation.

Bloomberg New Energy Finance estimates global power demand will surge 58 percent by 2040 from 2016 levels, with $10.2 trillion of investment needed in the sector. During the same period the growth of electric vehicles is seen displacing about 8 million barrels of oil a day -- equivalent to the current total production of Iran and Iraq.

OPEC's strategy will change to increase production to gain market share from one of restricting supply in order to prop up prices, according to Aurora. With demand declining in the 2030s, the company's "burnout scenario" predicts that oil prices could fall to $32 per barrel in 2040 from about $80 currently.

Total fossil fuel revenue will fall to $21 trillion, 10 percent of which is due to coal, as that fuel loses favor in power generation. Prices will collapse to $28 a ton by 2040, from about $90 now, "barely above the marginal cost of production and transport."

Natural gas will probably emerge as the main fossil fuel "winner" as it balances renewables in power generation and is used as a substitute for oil in petrochemicals. Long-term gas demand is set to increase by 15 percent, or by 750 billion cubic meters, compared to business as usual, Aurora said.

-----

Earlier:

 Electricity
2018, March, 28, 11:15:00

GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND + 2.1%

IEA - Global energy demand rose by 2.1% in 2017, more than twice the previous year’s rate, boosted by strong global economic growth, with oil, gas and coal meeting most of the increase in demand for energy, and renewables seeing impressive gains.

 Electricity
2018, March, 26, 07:50:00

NUCLEAR: MORE ELECTRICITY

IAEA - “Nuclear technology helps countries to produce more food, generate more electricity, treat diseases such as cancer, manage water supplies, protect the seas and oceans and respond to climate change — and much more,”

 Electricity
2018, February, 16, 23:35:00

ФУНДАМЕНТАЛЬНЫЕ ПРЕОБРАЗОВАНИЯ РЫНКА

МИНЭНЕРГО РОССИИ - Александр Новак поделился своим видением будущего углеводородной энергетики: «Она обладает огромным потенциалом цифровизации своих процессов, гибкой подстройки под нужды потребителей. Доля углеводородов, безусловно, будет снижаться, но с учетом роста населения, автопарка, спроса на энергию, абсолютное потребление продолжит расти. Если мы хотим надежно обеспечить мир энергией, нам придется найти разумный баланс между традиционной и новой энергетикой».

 Electricity
2018, January, 15, 10:10:00

RUSSIAN NUCLEAR ELECTRICITY UP TO 18.9%

ROSATOM - Following 2017, a share of electricity production by Russian nuclear power plants has increased up to 18.9%.

 Electricity
2017, June, 2, 16:25:00

УМНАЯ ЭНЕРГИЯ РОССИИ

В своем выступлении первый замглавы ведомства отметил, что трансформация российской энергетики – сегодня не самоцель, а объективная задача государственного значения. «Мы живем в один из самых динамичных периодов в истории человечества. Технологии стремительно меняет нашу жизнь. Компаниям и государствам важно сохранять гибкость и открытость к новым идеям, чтобы не отстать в этой гонке», – подчеркнул Алексей Текслер.

 Electricity
2017, May, 16, 12:10:00

CHINA'S GLOBAL ENERGY

Cooperation will focus on grid planning, fundamental research, policy coordination, project development and information sharing, according to the deals signed between GEIDCO and the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, the UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, the African Union Commission, the League of Arab States and the grid management bureau with the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf.

 Electricity
2017, April, 10, 18:45:00

INDIA'S ENERGY TRANSFORMATION

Peak electricity demand has grown nearly 13% over the past two years as a growing middle class seeks new services, such as air conditioning, which continue to place higher demands on the system. Over the next 25 years, energy demand is expected to more than double as a result.

 

 

Tags: OIL, GAS, PRICE, INVESTMENT

Chronicle:

NO OIL FUTURE 2040
2018, December, 14, 08:55:00

GERMANY'S RENEWABLE: 38%

PLATTS - Renewables' share in Germany's power mix is set to reach 38% this year, ahead of the government's 2020 target of 35% but below-trajectory for 2030's 65% target, utility lobby group BDEW said Thursday.

NO OIL FUTURE 2040
2018, December, 14, 08:50:00

EBRD DECARBONISATION STRATEGY

EBRD - the Bank will no longer finance thermal coal mining or coal-fired electricity generation. The Bank will also stop funding any upstream oil exploration, and will not finance upstream oil development projects except in rare and exceptional circumstances, where such investments reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

NO OIL FUTURE 2040
2018, December, 14, 08:45:00

MALAYSIA'S GDP UP BY 4.7%

IMF - The Malaysian economy has shown resilience. Real GDP growth is projected at 4.7 percent for 2018, underpinned by domestic demand.

NO OIL FUTURE 2040
2018, December, 14, 08:40:00

BOLIVIA'S GDP UP BY 4.5%

IMF - Bolivia's real GDP growth is projected at 4.5 percent in 2018, one of the highest rates in the region. Growth is supported by continued accommodative policies, a second economy-wide wage bonus, and strong agriculture output.

All Publications »