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2018-05-25 10:50:00

RUSSIA - SAUDIS DISCUSSION

ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ СДЕЛКИ ОПЕК+

FTRussia and Saudi Arabia's energy ministers will discuss a potential relaxation of the global oil output cap agreed between Opec and Moscow amid calls for them to boost output after their supply cuts helped drive prices to $80 a barrel.

The historic agreement that came into effect in January 2017 between the previous oil market rivals — curbing global output by 1.8m barrels a day — helped arrest the three year slump in crude prices.

But collapsing oil production in crisis-hit Venezuela and fears renewed US sanctions against Iran's energy sector will curb exports further have seen prices jump to the highest level since 2014, sparking calls for an exit from the deal.

Russia's Alexander Novak will meet his Saudi counterpart Khalid al-Falih in St Petersburg on Thursday evening to discuss the oil market and debate a possible easing of the caps that were agreed among 24 countries.

"We will discuss the current situation, the outlook and possible further actions to be taken within the framework of our deal. Speaking of relaxing the deal: it is possible but should be based on a thorough analysis of the situation," Mr Novak told the Financial Times. "Generally speaking, we are quite flexible."

Opec, Russia and other producing countries will next meet fomally in Vienna on June 22 to decide the future of the deal as pressure mounts from consumer nations to amend the strict curbs, even as most oil-exporting economies have benefited from rising prices.

Opec and its allies have cut production by more than their initial targets, removing far more barrels from the market than originally planned.

The price of benchmark Brent crude slipped 1 per cent on Thursday to a low of $78.57 on speculation that Opec and Russia's deal could be amended.

Ahead of the US withdrawal from the Iranian nuclear deal, President Donald Trump's administration held discussions with big producer countries — widely believed to have included Saudi Arabia — about alleviating any supply shortages.

Mr Trump last month also accused Opec of "artificially" boosting the price.

While Mr Al Falih said last week the market had "ample" supplies, he also said he was in communication with countries such as the US and Russia "to co-ordinate global action to ease oil market anxiety".

Indian government officials have expressed concern about the impact of higher prices on the fast-growing Asian economy, which is a big oil consumer. The International Energy Agency, meanwhile, warned demand growth would take a hit.

"$80 per barrel is way higher than expected ... it is surprising and unexpected for us," Mr Novak said in an interview.

"We cannot argue that higher prices are always a good thing for producers. When prices are way too high, it leads to the market being overheated and it results in destabilisation and excess supply," he added.

Some countries are afraid such a high price will encourage more investment in the US shale industry, which they fear has the potential to once again crash the price should more supplies come on too fast.

"We need to thoroughly analyse the reasons behind this price development. We need to understand whether it is a result of basic fundamental balance shift between supply and demand, or a one-time issue that will not last," Mr Novak added. "Our ultimate goal was not to set a specific price."

Gulf officials too have said they want to ensure the rally is not temporary, fearing a renewed price drop should they ease supply curbs too soon, two people familiar with the matter said.

Vagit Alekperov, head of Russia's second-largest oil producer Lukoil, said on Thursday that Russian producers should be allowed to increase their output. Mr Alekperov said the deal should remain but be made more "flexible."

Mr Novak said that any easing would take place across all members of the deal and would be "gradual", to avoid a rush by producers to increase their market share.

"It will be a gradual process in order to prevent market destabilisation. Maybe it will involve reduction of quotas step by step, and at any time it could be adjusted according to the state of the market," he said.

"We want to continue our co-operation beyond 2018. What we are talking about right now is the format."

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Earlier:

 

 Prices
2018, May, 23, 10:50:00

OIL PRICE: ABOVE $79 ANEW

REUTERS - Brent LCOc1 futures fell 43 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $79.14 a barrel by 0218 GMT, after climbing 35 cents on Tuesday. Last week, the global benchmark hit $80.50 a barrel, the highest since November 2014. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude CLc1 futures eased 25 cents, or 0.4 percent, to $71.95 a barrel, having climbed on Tuesday to $72.83 a barrel, the highest since November 2014.

 Prices
2018, May, 23, 10:45:00

HARD OIL MARKET

FT - Most oil majors can now cover dividends and capital expenditure at prices around $50 per barrel, meaning that, at $80, they make a healthy surplus.

 Prices
2018, May, 23, 10:30:00

RUSSIA'S OIL BENEFIT

BLOOMBERG - Oil has touched a level above $80 a barrel for the first time since November 2014. OPEC’s inventory target for output cuts has been met.

 Prices
2018, May, 21, 11:05:00

ADEQUATE OIL SUPPLIES

REUTERS - Saudi Arabia said on Friday it is consulting other oil producers in and outside OPEC to ensure the world has adequate supplies to support economic growth after prices hit $80 a barrel for the first time since 2014.

 Prices
2018, May, 18, 09:10:00

TIGHT MARKET BALANCE

IEA - Because of rising prices, we lowered our estimate for 2018 global oil demand growth by 40 kb/d to 1.4 mb/d, and we increased our expectation for US oil production growth this year by 120 kb/d.

 Prices
2018, May, 16, 12:30:00

OIL MARKET BALANCE

PLATTS - "It is too early to say [what the impact of the US decision on the oil market will be]. In any case, we have all the tools that could be used to balance the market," Novak said, commenting on the potential impact of the move on the oil markets.

 Prices
2018, May, 16, 12:20:00

ЦЕНА URALS: $ 71,87525

МИНФИН РОССИИ - Средняя цена на нефть Urals за период мониторинга с 15 апреля по 14 мая 2018 года составила $ 71,87525 за баррель, или $ 524,7 за тонну. Согласно расчетам Минфина России экспортная пошлина на нефть в РФ с 1 июня 2018 года повысится на $ 13,3 и составит $ 131,8 за тонну. 

Tags: НОВАТЭК, NOVATEK, TOTAL, GAS, ГАЗ, СПГ, LNG

Chronicle:

ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ СДЕЛКИ ОПЕК+
2018, August, 17, 11:30:00

U.S. INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION UP 0.1%

U.S. FRB - Industrial production edged up 0.1 percent in July after rising at an average pace of 0.5 percent over the previous five months. Manufacturing production increased 0.3 percent, the output of utilities moved down 0.5 percent, and, after posting five consecutive months of growth, the index for mining declined 0.3 percent. At 108.0 percent of its 2012 average, total industrial production was 4.2 percent higher in July than it was a year earlier. Capacity utilization for the industrial sector was unchanged in July at 78.1 percent, a rate that is 1.7 percentage points below its long-run (1972–2017) average.

ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ СДЕЛКИ ОПЕК+
2018, August, 17, 11:25:00

NORWAY'S PETROLEUM PRODUCTION: 1.911 MBD

NPD - Preliminary production figures for July 2018 show an average daily production of 1 911 000 barrels of oil, NGL and condensate, which is an increase of 64 000 barrels per day compared to June.

ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ СДЕЛКИ ОПЕК+
2018, August, 17, 11:20:00

GAZPROM NEFT NET PROFIT UP TO 49.6%

GAZPROM NEFT - For the first six months of 2018 Gazprom Neft achieved revenue** growth of 24.4% year-on-year, at one trillion, 137.7 billion rubles (RUB1,137,700,000,000). The Company achieved a 49.8% year-on-year increase in adjusted EBITDA, to RUB368.2 billion. This performance reflected positive market conditions for oil and oil products, production growth at the Company’s new projects, and effective management initiatives. Net profit attributable to Gazprom Neft PJSC shareholders grew 49.6% year on year, to RUB166.4 billion. Growth in the Company’s operating cash flow, as well as the completion of key infrastructure investments at new upstream projects, delivered positive free cash flow of RUB47.5 billion for 1H 2018.

ПЕРСПЕКТИВЫ СДЕЛКИ ОПЕК+
2018, August, 15, 11:10:00

OIL PRICE: NEAR $72

REUTERS - Front-month Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were at $72.34 per barrel at 0648 GMT, down by 12 cents, or 0.2 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures CLc1 were down 23 cents, or 0.3 percent, at $66.81 per barrel.

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