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2018-06-27 11:05:00

IEA: GLOBAL GAS DEMAND UP

IEA: GLOBAL GAS DEMAND UP

IEAStrong demand growth from China, greater industrial demand, and rising supplies from the United States, will transform global natural gas markets over the next five years according to the International Energy Agency’s latest market forecast.

Global gas demand will grow at an average rate of 1.6% a year, reaching just over 4,100 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2023, up from 3,740 bcm in 2017, according to the IEA's latest annual gas market report.

"In the next five years, global gas markets are being re-shaped by three major structural shifts," said Dr Fatih Birol, the IEA's Executive Director. "China is set to become the world's largest gas importer within two-to-three years, US production and exports will rise dramatically strongly and industry is replacing power generation as the leading growth sector. While gas has a bright future, the industry faces tough challenges. These include the need for gas prices to remain affordable relative to other fuels in emerging markets and for industry to curb methane leaks along the value chain."

Chinese gas demand is forecast to grow by 60 % between 2017-2023, underpinned by policies aimed at reducing local air pollution by switching from coal to gas. China alone accounts for 37% of the growth in global demand in the next five years and becomes the largest natural gas importer by 2019, overtaking Japan. The IEA also forecasts strong growth in gas use in other parts of Asia, including in South and Southeast Asia, driven by strong economic growth and efforts to improve air quality.

For end-use sectors, industry will become the largest contributor to the increase in global gas demand to 2023, taking the lead from power generation, which had historically held this role. The change is especially marked in Asia and other emerging markets thanks to higher gas use in industrial processes and as feedstock for chemicals and fertilizers. Overall, industry accounts for over 40% of growth in global gas demand to 2023, according to the IEA, followed by 26% for power generation.

Major changes are also evident on the supply side, with the United States leading gas production growth worldwide to 2023, thanks to the on-going US shale revolution. Most new US supplies will be geared to export markets as LNG or through pipelines. The development of destination-free and gas-indexed US LNG exports will provide additional flexibility to the expanding global water-borne traded market.

LNG is progressively taking a larger share in global gas trade, especially in Asia. LNG trade as a share of total gas trade is forecast to rise from a third in 2017 to almost 40% in 2023. Emerging Asian markets will account for about half of global LNG imports by 2023. This continued rise in the LNG market will have significant impacts on trade flows, pricing structures and global gas security.

The current wave of LNG export projects will increase liquefaction capacity by 30% by 2023. This will be led by an increase in output from the United States, which accounts for nearly three-quarters of the growth in total global LNG exports in the period, followed by Australia and Russia. However, a lack of new LNG projects after 2020 could lead to a tightening of LNG markets. Given the long-lead time of such projects, investment decisions will need to be taken in the next few years to ensure adequate LNG supply beyond 2023.

Price competitiveness will be crucial for gas to gain a firm foothold in emerging markets. This requires market evolutions and reforms, such as the development of trading hubs, opening up of the downstream to competition and fair access to infrastructure. Improving air pollution will be a key driver of gas demand, especially in emerging markets, and industry's ability to improve its environmental footprint, including by reducing methane emissions and expanding the deployment of carbon, capture, utilization and storage technology, will be critical for gas prospects.

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Earlier: 

 Gas
2018, June, 25, 12:05:00

NOVATEK - KOGAS UNDERSTANDING

NOVATEK - According to the MOU, the parties agreed to explore opportunities for KOGAS to enter the Arctic LNG 2 project and possible LNG off-take from the project, participate in the LNG transshipment project in Kamchatka and other infrastructure projects, as well as develop cooperation in LNG trading and logistics optimization, including swap operations.

 Gas
2018, June, 22, 13:15:00

GAZPROM FOR GERMANY: +13%

GAZPROM - The meeting highlighted that Germany continued to ramp up its imports of Russian gas. According to preliminary data, from January 1 through June 19, 2018, Gazprom supplied Germany with 28.2 billion cubic meters of gas, an increase of 13.1 per cent from the same period of 2017.

 Gas
2018, June, 20, 12:50:00

U.S. OIL PRODUCTION + 144 TBD, GAS PRODUCTION + 1,092 MCFD

EIA - Crude oil production from the major US onshore regions is forecast to increase 141,000 b/d month-over-month in June from 7,198 to 7,339 thousand barrels/day , gas production to increase 1,135 million cubic feet/day from 68,624 to 69,759 million cubic feet/day .

 Gas
2018, June, 20, 12:15:00

EXXON - AUSTRALIA LNG

PLATTS - ExxonMobil's planned LNG import project in Victoria will compete with AGL's planned LNG import terminal in the same state -- at Crib Point near Melbourne -- projected to come online by financial year 2020-2021, and AIE's project next door in the state of New South Wales, potentially at Port Kembla, Newcastle or Port Botany, expected by as early as 2020.

 Gas
2018, June, 13, 13:30:00

GAZPROM - CNPC COOPERATION

GAZPROM - The meeting participants reviewed a wide range of issues regarding cooperation in the gas sector, including the status of the project for gas supplies via the eastern route (Power of Siberia). It was noted that the project was going according to schedule, with the gas pipeline’s linear part from the Chayandinskoye field to the Chinese border completed by 84.4 per cent (over 1,820 kilometers). Pipe pulling operations were finished in the second tunnel of the crossing under the Amur River within Power of Siberia’s cross-border section.

 Gas
2018, June, 13, 12:55:00

GLOBAL LNG TRADE UP

EIA - Global trade in liquefied natural gas (LNG) reached 38.2 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017, a 10% (3.5 Bcf/d) increase from 2016 and the largest annual volume increase on record,

 Gas
2018, June, 13, 12:50:00

QATAR LNG - 2024: 100 MLN MT

PLATTS - "There is no LNG supply glut," Sada said. "There may be a surplus of only 10 million mt/year of LNG in the early 2020s [but] in a 350 million mt/year LNG market, this means that the market is practically in balance," he said.

 

Tags: IEA, GAS