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2018-06-08 13:15:00

OIL DEMAND UP TO 2030

OIL DEMAND UP TO 2030

PLATTS - Global oil demand will peak around 2030 at 111 million b/d as a sharp rise in electric vehicles and energy efficiency gains offset growing demand from the aviation and petrochemical sectors, Norwegian producer Equinor said in its long-term energy outlook.

A widespread electrification of vehicles, mostly cars, will see oil demand from light-duty vehicles in the transport sector fall by 9 million b/d from 2030 to 16.2 million b/d in 2050, according to Equinor's central Reform scenario.

The decline in total oil demand after peaking will be slow, however, with demand dropping by about 5% by 2050 to just under 105 million b/d, according to the outlook.

Equinor's energy outlook painted a more pessimistic picture for oil than the International Energy Agency and BP, which estimate, respectively, that oil demand could peak after 2040 or in the late 2030s.

Equinor, formerly known as Statoil, also expressed concerned the global transition to lower carbon energy sources was being slowed by the geopolitical climate.

Under a Rivalry scenario, the oil and gas producer said it saw the pace of change dictated by geopolitical conflict and other political priorities other than climate change.

"Unfortunately, we currently see too many signs of the Rivalry-scenario. If continuing, they will negatively impact necessary global collaborative efforts and economic growth which are keys to drive the world in a sustainable direction," Equinor's chief economist, Eirik Waerness, said.

Under the Rivalry scenario, despite lower average economic growth than in the Reform-scenario, energy demand and GHG emissions will be higher caused by "the volatility and lack of coordination across borders, resulting in slower improvement in energy efficiency and coal keeping most of its position as an energy source".

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Earlier:

 Trends
2018, May, 30, 13:35:00

GLOBAL ECONOMY GROWTH 3.9%

IMF - We expect growth to stay strong this year and next—at 3.9 percent. This is being driven by stronger investment and a rebound in trade. Once again, the momentum is broad-based, encompassing the United States, Europe, Japan, China, Russia, and many other emerging market and developing countries.

 Trends
2018, May, 28, 11:10:00

TOTAL DECARBONIZATION OF THE GLOBAL ECONOMY

GAZPROM - It seems that putting renewables ahead of everything else doesn’t accomplish anything in today’s world. And striving for a total decarbonization of the global economy is downright quixotic. One should understand that fossil fuels will continue to play an essential role in the next 20 years.

 Trends
2018, May, 23, 10:15:00

NO OIL FUTURE 2040

BLOOMBERG - Natural gas will probably emerge as the main fossil fuel “winner” as it balances renewables in power generation and is used as a substitute for oil in petrochemicals. Long-term gas demand is set to increase by 15 percent, or by 750 billion cubic meters, compared to business as usual,

 Trends
2018, May, 23, 10:10:00

CLEAN NUCLEAR FUTURE

WNN - The United States, Canada, and Japan are launching the Nuclear Innovation: Clean Energy (NICE) Future Initiative. This global effort will make sure nuclear has a seat at the table during discussions about innovation and advanced clean energy systems of the future.

 Trends
2018, April, 18, 13:06:00

U.S. GAS PRODUCTION UP TO 59%

EIA - U.S. dry natural gas production will increase through 2050 across a wide variety of alternative assumptions about the future. In the Reference case, which is based on current laws and regulations, production grows 59% from 2017 to 2050, starting at 73.6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in 2017 and reaching 118 Bcf/d in 2050.

 Trends
2018, March, 28, 11:15:00

GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND + 2.1%

IEA - Global energy demand rose by 2.1% in 2017, more than twice the previous year’s rate, boosted by strong global economic growth, with oil, gas and coal meeting most of the increase in demand for energy, and renewables seeing impressive gains.

 Trends
2018, March, 16, 10:30:00

OIL DEMAND GROWTH - 2018: 1.5 MBD

IEA - Looking at demand, our estimate for global growth in 2018 has increased by 90 kb/d taking it up to 1.5 mb/d. Although this is a modest revision, it is interesting that provisional data suggests very strong starts to the year in China and India, which, taken together, accounted for nearly 50% of global demand growth in 2017. Cold weather in some parts of the northern hemisphere in January-February saw an increase in heating demand.

Tags: OIL, DEMAND, EQUINOR, STATOIL