RUSSIA WILL INCREASE OIL PRODUCTION

PLATTS - Russia can restore its crude output by as much as 250,000 b/d in July as part of the recent decision by the OPEC-led coalition to increase production, energy minister Alexander Novak said Friday, indicating that the country is returning barrels to the market quicker than had been expected.

"We [expect] that some 200,000-250,000 b/d, out of the 300,000 b/d cut under the production cut deal, will be restored [this month]," Novak said on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Johannesburg, according to a statement by the ministry's press office.

Russia initially said it would increase production by 200,000 b/d under the latest agreement by the OPEC-led group in June to increase the combined output by 1 million b/d to maintain 100% compliance to the original production cut agreement. Under that deal, effective from January 2017, 24 OPEC and non-OPEC countries agreed to remove 1.8 million b/d from the market to help the market rebalance more quickly, while the actual output cut was much more significant.

The June decision was taken to avoid potential supply shortages on the market expected from US sanctions on Iran and Venezuela's continued decline, among other market disruptions.

Novak also said he believes the market has mainly already taken into account the supply risks associated with the Iran sanctions that are due to come into force in November, which is already reflected in current oil prices.

"I think the market has taken into account all those factors [around Iran] and has balanced," he said.

"The oil price remains at around $73-74/b plus-minus a few dollars," Novak said.

Dated Brent price jumped to around $78-$80/b in mid-May when the US announced its sanctions plan against Iran but gradually fell to hover around $72-$75/b recently, according to S&P Global Platts data.

Novak reiterated that the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the coalition may consider a further increase in crude production in September, but said this issue is not currently under discussion.

Further steps will be discussed based on the situation on the oil market, he said.

"The current decision to increase production by 1 million b/d is valid until the end of the year but it can be reviewed in September, depending on how the markets balance, including the situation in Libya and other countries," Novak said.

Last week, the Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) of the coalition said it would "not deviate" from overall 100% conformity levels in their output agreements, having decided to hold the meetings monthly, while previously the JMMC met bimonthly.

At the meeting, the JMMC did not specify how extra barrels will be shared between countries participating in the agreement, with Iran and Venezuela opposed to allowing countries to produce above their individual quotes and take market share from other members.

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Earlier:

2018, July, 12, 10:35:00 OPEC & RUSSIA 1 MBD: INSUFFICIENT PLATTS - OPEC's recent decision with Russia and other allies to boost crude output by a combined 1 million b/d may be insufficient to meet global demand in the months ahead, according to the producer group's own forecast.

2018, July, 12, 10:25:00 RUSSIA CAN ADD 600,000 PLATTS - "We estimate that Russia will retain [roughly] 360,000 b/d of swing capacity at the end of 2018, as oil output ramps up by the agreed 200,000 b/d," a recent report by BofA Merrill Lynch Global Research said. "We expect Russian oil producers to accumulate additional [roughly] 140,000 b/d spare capacity by the end of 2019, bringing the total figure to 500,000 b/d."

2018, July, 6, 11:55:00 КОРРЕКТИРОВКА ДО 100% МИНЭНЕРГО РОССИИ - В ходе телефонного разговора Министр энергетики Российской Федерации Александр Новак и Министр энергетики, промышленности и природных ресурсов Саудовской Аравии Халид аль-Фалих обсудили последние тенденции на мировом рынке нефти. Министры обменялись информацией о планах своих стран по производству нефти для удовлетворения спроса в летний период в свете решений, принятых в последние месяцы на 174-й встречи Конференции ОПЕК и 4-й Министерской встречи стран ОПЕК и не входящих в ОПЕК государств в Вене, направленных на корректировку коллективного уровня снижения добычи нефти со 147 процентов в мае 2018 до 100 процентов, начиная с 1 июля 2018 г., что соответствует увеличению добычи примерно на один миллион баррелей нефти в день.

2018, July, 4, 12:20:00 SAUDI ARABIA & RUSSIA: +1 MBD BLOOMBERG - Saudi Arabia and Russia reaffirmed an agreement between OPEC and its allies, which they say will mean increasing oil production by 1 million barrels a day.

2018, July, 2, 12:20:00 РОССИЯ МОЖЕТ ДОБАВИТЬ 200 000 ПРАЙМ - Россия готова нарастить свою добычу нефти более чем на 200 тысяч баррелей в сутки, если это будет нужно для достижения общей цели ОПЕК+ по увеличению добычи в 1 миллион баррелей, сообщил журналистам министр энергетики РФ Александр Новак.

2018, June, 29, 10:50:00 OIL OUTPUT WILL UP PLATTS - "I think you're going to see a settling-down of the market -- people feeling comfortable that Saudi Arabia, Russia and the United States, we've got substantial production," Perry said, while acknowledging pipeline constraints in Texas that are holding back Permian Basin oil exports.

2018, June, 25, 12:30:00 БОЛЬШЕ НЕФТИ: +1 МБД МИНЭНЕРГО РОССИИ - На пресс-конференции по итогам заседания Министр энергетики Российской Федерации Александр Новак отметил, что доля России в общем увеличении добычи нефти стран ОПЕК и не-ОПЕК в 1 млн баррелей в сутки может составить около 200 тыс.